Honestly, if you look at a map of Ukraine from two years ago and compare it to one today, in January 2026, you might think not much has changed. The lines look just as jagged, the colors just as stagnant. But that’s a bit of an illusion. The war has turned into this massive, grinding machine that eats up land in tiny, bloody bites.
If you're asking what percent of Ukraine does Russia control right now, the short answer is roughly 19.3%.
That number comes from the latest data released by groups like DeepState and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) as of mid-January 2026. It's a slight uptick from where things stood at the end of 2024, when the figure was hovering closer to 18%.
But percentages are kinda cold, aren't they? They don't really tell the story of what it's like on the ground in places like Pokrovsk or the Zaporizhzhia front. To really get what’s happening, you have to look at the math of the last twelve months. In 2025 alone, Russia managed to seize about 4,336 square kilometers. That’s less than 1% of the country's total landmass—about 0.72%, to be exact. It sounds small, but for the people living there, it’s everything.
Breaking Down the Regions: Who Holds What?
When we talk about what percent of Ukraine does Russia control, we’re mostly talking about the east and the south. It’s not a uniform occupation. Some areas have been under Russian boots since 2014, while others are fresh battlefields where the dirt hasn't even settled yet.
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The Donbas: Donetsk and Luhansk
This is where the heaviest grinding is happening. Luhansk is basically gone—Russia controls about 99.6% of it. Donetsk is a different story, though. Even after years of some of the most intense fighting since World War II, Russia holds about 78% of the oblast. They made their biggest gains here in 2025, pushing the line forward by about 10% through a strategy of "human wave" attacks that, quite frankly, have been devastating for both sides.
The South: Zaporizhzhia and Kherson
Down south, things are a bit more locked in. Russia controls about 75% of Zaporizhzhia and roughly 72% of Kherson. The frontline here hasn't moved much lately, but there’s been some recent Russian creeping near the city of Zaporizhzhia. They’re now sitting just 7 kilometers from the capital's limits. That’s close enough to see the city lights at night.
The New Fronts: Sumy and Kharkiv
This is the part that surprises people. Lately, Russia has been poking at the northern borders again. They’ve grabbed tiny slivers of the Sumy and Kharkiv regions—about 1% and 4.7% respectively. It’s not a full-scale invasion like we saw in February 2022, but more like "infiltration missions" designed to keep the Ukrainian army spread thin and nervous.
Why the Percentage Keeps Creeping Up
You might wonder why, with all the Western tanks and drones, the percentage is still slowly rising. The reality is that Russia has shifted to a "war of attrition" model. They aren't looking for grand, sweeping breakthroughs anymore. Instead, they're using massive amounts of artillery and infantry to overwhelm specific towns.
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Take the town of Pokrovsk, for example. By December 2025, Russia had seized about 67% of it. They don't take the whole city at once; they just keep biting until there’s nothing left to defend.
It’s also worth noting the sheer scale of the losses. Some estimates, like those mentioned by former CIA Director William Burns in early 2026, suggest Russian casualties have hit the 1.1 million mark. That is a staggering human cost for a gain of less than 1% of territory in a year. But the Kremlin seems willing to pay it.
The State of Play in January 2026
So, where does that leave us? Here is a quick look at the "Report Card" for the start of 2026:
- Total Occupied Area: Approximately 116,250 square kilometers.
- Comparison: That is roughly the size of the state of Pennsylvania or Ohio.
- 2025 Growth: Russia gained about 171 square miles per month on average last year.
- The Kursk Factor: Interestingly, Ukraine still holds a tiny bit of Russian territory—about 4 square miles in the Kursk and Belgorod regions—as a sort of bargaining chip, though Russia regained a lot of what they lost there over the summer.
What Most People Get Wrong About These Numbers
The biggest misconception is that the "percentage of control" equals "victory." If you only look at the map, you miss the infrastructure war. While Russia only controls 19% of the land, they’ve managed to knock out about 60% of Ukraine's power generation capacity.
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By January 2026, Ukraine’s available energy has dropped from 33.7 GW to just 14 GW. This means that even in the 80% of the country that Ukraine does control, life is incredibly hard. We're talking about blackouts that last four days at a time in the middle of winter.
Looking Ahead: What’s Next?
The "what percent of Ukraine does Russia control" question is likely to stay in the 19-20% range for a while. Neither side seems to have the strength for a knockout blow. Russia is betting that they can outlast the West's patience, while Ukraine is banking on a "multinational assurance force" to stabilize the lines.
If you want to stay truly informed, don't just look at the big numbers. Keep an eye on:
- The Zaporizhzhia capital limits: If Russia gets within 5km, the logistics for the whole south change.
- The Energy Grid: The percentage of land matters less if the country can't keep the lights on.
- Peace Negotiations: There’s been a lot of talk about a US-brokered 28-point plan. Whether that freezes the lines at the current 19.3% or demands a withdrawal is the big unknown for 2026.
Basically, we're in a phase where the map moves by inches, but the political stakes move by miles. Keep watching the DeepState updates—they’re usually the first to catch the shifts before they hit the major news cycles.
Next Steps for Staying Informed:
- Monitor Daily Changes: Check the DeepStateMap.Live interactive map for geolocated updates on specific village captures, which often precede official announcements.
- Track Energy Reports: Follow the Ministry of Energy of Ukraine updates to see how the 14 GW capacity is holding up against winter demand, as this is currently a more critical metric than territorial percentages.
- Read the Assessments: Review the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) daily campaign assessments for a deep dive into whether Russian "infiltrations" in the north are becoming permanent occupations.