Look, if you grew up anywhere between Pensacola and Key West, you know that the Saturday after Thanksgiving isn't just about leftover turkey. It's about hate. Pure, unadulterated, "I won't wear that shade of blue or that specific garnet" kind of hate.
But honestly, the UF vs FSU football rivalry has changed. If you’re still clinging to the 1990s logic where this game was basically a national semi-final every single year, you're living in a fantasy world. The 2025 season just wrapped up, and let’s be real: both programs are in a weird spot. Florida just finished a 4-8 campaign, while FSU sat at 5-7. It’s not exactly Spurrier vs. Bowden levels of greatness right now.
Yet, somehow, the stakes feel higher than ever.
The "New" Reality of the Sunshine Showdown
People love to talk about the "Choke at Doak" or the 1997 Sugar Bowl where the Gators dismantled FSU 52-20 to claim their first natty. Those are great memories. They’re also ancient history in football years. What actually matters right now—and what most folks are missing—is how the ground is shifting beneath both Gainesville and Tallahassee.
Take the 2025 game. Florida won 40-21. It was a beatdown. Jadan Baugh, a sophomore who’s basically a human wrecking ball, ran for 266 yards. 266! That’s the second-most in UF history, only trailing the legendary Emmitt Smith. He didn’t just run; he pulverized an FSU defense that looked like they’d rather be anywhere else.
But here’s the kicker: Florida did this with an interim coach, Billy Gonzales, after they finally moved on from Billy Napier. And FSU? They’re sticking with Mike Norvell for 2026, despite a losing record and a road-loss streak that’s pushing 1,000 days. If you're an FSU fan, that 2025 loss in The Swamp wasn't just another L. It was a sign that the gap is widening in the wrong direction.
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Why the SEC Move Changes Everything
You've probably heard the rumors. The SEC is moving to a nine-game conference schedule starting in 2026. This is huge. For decades, the UF vs FSU football game was a protected non-conference date. But with the SEC expanding and adding powerhouses like Texas and Oklahoma, there was legit fear that this rivalry might get the axe.
Basically, Florida is now forced to play at least one "Power 4" non-conference opponent. Luckily for us, FSU fits that bill. Billy Napier (before he got the boot) was pretty adamant that this game is "historical in relevance" and isn't going anywhere. But let's be honest—it’s going to be harder to schedule. If the SEC eventually goes to 10 games (don't bet against it), things get dicey.
What Most People Get Wrong: The "Home Field" Myth
There's this idea that playing in Tallahassee or Gainesville is an automatic advantage. Statistically? It’s closer than you think.
| Metric | Florida Gators | Florida State Seminoles |
|---|---|---|
| All-Time Series Lead | 39 Wins | 28 Wins |
| Last 10 Matchups | 5 Wins | 5 Wins |
| Longest Win Streak | 9 Games (1968-1976) | 5 Games (2013-2017) |
| Current Streak | 2 Wins (UF) | - |
Look at those numbers. Florida leads the overall series, but the last decade has been a dead heat. FSU dominated the Jimbo Fisher era, and Florida has clawed back recently. The 2025 win by UF was significant because it knocked FSU out of bowl eligibility. That’s the kind of pettiness that makes this rivalry great. You don’t just want to win; you want to ruin their entire December.
The Quarterback Factor: Lagway vs. The Field
If you want to know who’s going to own the UF vs FSU football narrative for the next two years, look at DJ Lagway.
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The kid is a freak. In the 2025 game, he didn’t need to throw for 400 yards because Baugh was eating so much clock, but he was efficient. 15 of 24, three touchdowns, and zero fear. On the other side, FSU has been playing musical chairs at QB. Tommy Castellanos had some moments in '25—77 yards on the ground and two scores through the air—but he couldn't sustain drives.
FSU’s offense in 2025 was basically "hope something cool happens on 3rd and long." That won't win you the Florida Cup.
The Ghosts of Controversies Past
You can't talk about these two without mentioning the "Swindle in the Swamp" from 2003. I still talk to old-timers in Gainesville who swear the ACC officiating crew was in on a conspiracy. It got so bad that the schools actually changed the rules for who officiates the games.
And don't even get me started on the 1966 "Lane Fenner catch." FSU fans still have photos framed in their dens proving he was in bounds. The refs said no. Florida won 22-19. That single call probably fueled three decades of resentment.
Honestly, that’s the soul of this rivalry. It’s not just about the CFP or rankings. It’s about the fact that your neighbor is a Seminole and you’re a Gator, and for 364 days a year, one of you has to keep your mouth shut while the other talks trash.
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Surprising Stats You Didn't Know
- The 0-11 Year: In 1973, Florida beat FSU 49-0. That was the year FSU went 0-11. It’s still the most lopsided score in the history of the series.
- Top 10 Mainstays: Between 1990 and 2000, every single meeting featured two top-10 teams. Let that sink in. We were spoiled.
- The Road Curse: As of the end of the 2025 season, FSU hasn’t won a road game in over two years. That’s a massive psychological hurdle heading into the 2026 game in Tallahassee.
What to Watch for in 2026
So, what’s next? Florida has a new head coach, Jon Sumrall, coming over from Tulane. He’s a defensive mastermind. If he can fix a UF defense that has been leaky for years, FSU is in trouble.
Florida State is banking on stability. They’re hoping Norvell can recapture that 2023 magic, but without a superstar under center, it’s a tough climb. The 2026 game will be back in Tallahassee at Doak Campbell Stadium. FSU has to win that game. If they lose three in a row to a Florida program that's also rebuilding, the boosters are going to start getting restless.
Your Game Day Action Plan:
- Check the Trench Depth: In 2025, Florida won because their offensive line bullied FSU’s front four. Watch the transfer portal this spring. If FSU doesn't land two massive interior defensive linemen, expect Baugh to run for another 200 yards.
- Monitor the Coaching Transition: Sumrall is a "culture" guy. Watch how many Florida players stay in the portal versus how many leave. A unified Gator locker room is a dangerous thing.
- Track the Road Streak: Keep an eye on FSU’s early away games in 2026. If they don’t break that road losing streak early, the pressure during the UF game will be suffocating.
If you’re planning on attending, get your tickets early. Even when both teams are struggling, The Swamp and Doak will be sold out. This isn't just a game; it's the hierarchy of the state on the line.
Would you like to see a breakdown of the 2026 recruiting classes for both schools to see who has the edge in the next cycle?