If you’ve been watching the Miami Heat lately, you know the vibe is... complicated. One night they look like world-beaters, and the next, they’re getting blown out by 20. Right in the middle of this rollercoaster is Tyler Herro. Looking at Tyler Herro last 10 games, you start to see a player trying to figure out his identity in a season where he’s already missed significant time due to injury. He’s only played 11 games total this season as of mid-January 2026, which makes this recent stretch basically his entire season.
Honestly, the numbers are pretty loud. He’s averaging about 21.9 points. But stats in a vacuum don’t tell the whole story. You have to look at how he’s getting those points and, more importantly, what happens to the Heat when he's the one taking the shots.
Tyler Herro Last 10 Games: A Deep Look at the Production
In his most recent outing against the Boston Celtics on January 15, Herro put up 22 points on 9-of-15 shooting. That’s efficient. He also snagged three steals, which is kinda surprising for a guy who usually gets targeted on the defensive end. Two nights before that, in a win against Phoenix, he went for 23 points.
But it hasn't all been sunshine and rainbows. Go back to January 6 against Minnesota, and he struggled through a 17-point performance while the team lost by nearly 30.
The splits are wild.
When you look at his home versus away performance during this stretch, the difference is jarring. At the Kaseya Center, Herro is basically a flamethrower, averaging 24 points. On the road? That drops to under 20. It’s almost like he needs that Miami humidity and the "White Hot" crowd to really find his rhythm.
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The Shooting Slump or a New Reality?
One thing that's been bothering Heat fans is the three-point consistency. Over his last five games specifically, Herro has had nights where he’s 4-of-7 from deep (against Boston) and nights where he’s 1-of-8 (against Indiana). That’s the Tyler Herro experience in a nutshell. You take the 57% shooting nights because you know the 12% nights are lurking around the corner.
- January 15 vs BOS: 22 PTS, 4/7 3PT (L)
- January 13 vs PHO: 23 PTS, 2/8 3PT (W)
- January 11 @ OKC: 19 PTS, 1/3 3PT (L)
- January 10 @ IND: 21 PTS, 1/8 3PT (L)
- January 6 @ MIN: 17 PTS, 1/4 3PT (L)
He’s currently shooting about 35.8% from three for the season. For a guy whose primary gravity comes from being a deep threat, that’s a bit lower than what Erik Spoelstra probably wants. But he’s making up for it inside the arc. He’s been using more ball screens and getting into that floater range where he’s actually quite deadly.
Is the Heat's Offense Better with Herro?
This is the million-dollar question in South Beach. The Heat are currently sitting at 21-20, hovering around that 8th seed. When Herro plays, the offense definitely has more "pop." They are averaging 119.4 points per game as a team, which is 5th in the NBA. That’s a huge jump from previous years where Miami was a grind-it-out, low-scoring squad.
But here is the catch.
While the offense is humming, the defense is... well, it’s a work in progress. Herro still has a bit of a bullseye on his chest. Teams like the Pacers and Timberwolves exploited his lack of lateral quickness to get into the paint at will. It’s a trade-off. Do you take the 22 points he gives you if he’s giving up 15 on the other end?
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Handling the Rock
One thing people get wrong about Herro is thinking he's just a spot-up shooter. Over these last 10 games, we’ve seen him act as a secondary playmaker. He’s averaging about 2.7 assists, which doesn't seem like much, but he's often the "hockey assist" guy—the one who makes the pass that leads to the pass.
He’s also taking care of the ball. In a massive game against Indiana where everything went wrong, he didn't commit a single turnover. That’s growth. Young Tyler would have tried to force a few behind-the-back passes into traffic. 26-year-old Tyler is playing a bit more "boring," and that’s actually a good thing for Miami’s stability.
Why These Last 10 Games Actually Matter
We are halfway through the 2025-26 season. The Heat have a brutal schedule coming up, including a West Coast road trip through Phoenix and Sacramento. If Tyler Herro last 10 games are any indication, Miami needs him to be the bridge between Bam Adebayo’s interior presence and the perimeter scoring of guys like Norman Powell (who has been a sneaky good addition this year).
Bam has been struggling with some nagging injuries lately, dropping his scoring average significantly over the last few weeks. This has forced Herro to carry a heavier load. He’s not just a "nice to have" piece anymore; he’s essentially the engine of the starting lineup when Jimmy Butler is coasting or out.
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Honestly, the most impressive part of Herro's recent stretch isn't the scoring—it's the volume. He’s taking about 16.5 shots per game. He’s not hesitating. In the NBA, half the battle is just having the confidence to keep firing when the first three don't go in. Herro has never had a confidence problem, and right now, Miami needs that swagger.
Actionable Insights for Heat Fans and Analysts
If you're tracking Herro's progress or looking at him for fantasy purposes, keep an eye on these three things over the next few weeks:
- The Home/Road Split: Until he proves he can shoot 40% from deep in an away arena, be cautious. He’s a different player at the Kaseya Center.
- Defensive Matchups: Watch how Spoelstra hides him. If Miami is playing a team with two elite scoring guards, Herro’s minutes might get shaky if his shot isn't falling.
- The "Fourth Quarter" Tyler: Over the last few games, his usage rate in the final five minutes has spiked. He wants the ball. Whether he should have it over Bam or Terry Rozier is debatable, but he’s taking it.
The Heat are 5-5 in their last 10. They are the definition of "mid" right now. But with Herro back and healthy, they have a ceiling that most 8-seeds don't have. He just needs to find that middle ground between being a volume shooter and an efficient floor spacer.
Keep an eye on the upcoming game against Oklahoma City. It’s a rematch of a game they just lost, and it’ll be a huge test to see if Herro can adjust to the length and speed of the Thunder's perimeter defenders. If he can put up another 20-piece with high efficiency, it might be time to stop worrying about the injury rust.