If you’ve lived in the Twin Cities for more than a week, you know the drill. You look out the window, see a patch of blue sky, and think maybe, just maybe, you can get away with a light hoodie today.
Don't. Honestly, just don't do it.
The current two week weather forecast Minneapolis is looking like a classic Minnesota bait-and-switch. We are coming off a weirdly mild Monday where it hit 43°F—which feels like tropical spring in January—but the atmosphere is about to pull the rug out from under us.
The immediate "Vibe Shift"
Right now, as of Tuesday, January 13, 2026, we’re sitting around 42°F. It’s cloudy. It’s gray. It’s fine. But if you check the National Weather Service (NWS) Twin Cities discussion, you’ll see the phrase "longwave trough" popping up. In human speak? That means a massive dip in the jet stream is coming to dump a bucket of Canadian air right on our heads.
By tomorrow, Wednesday, the high is going to struggle to hit 18°F. That is a 24-degree drop in basically 24 hours. My joints hurt just writing that.
The real story for the next 14 days isn't just the cold, though. It’s the snow timing.
Snow totals: What’s actually coming?
There’s a system moving in Thursday, January 15, that has meteorologists at Chanhassen squinting at their screens. We’ve got a "Grand Ensemble" guidance suggesting a 40-60% chance of seeing more than 2 inches by Friday evening.
It’s not a "Snowmageddon," but it’s enough to make the I-35W commute a nightmare of sliding Kias and nervous brake-tapping.
Here is the rough breakdown of what the models are screaming for the next two weeks:
- Late This Week (Jan 15-16): Snow showers and light accumulation. Highs in the 30s before the floor falls out.
- The Weekend (Jan 17-18): This is the "Arctic Slap." We are looking at highs of 9°F on Saturday and 11°F on Sunday. Lows will hover around 2°F.
- Next Week (Jan 19-22): Persistent cold. Highs barely reaching the double digits (10-13°F) until a slight "rebound" to 20°F late in the week.
The predictability for the second half of this two-week window is, frankly, low. There is a 30-degree spread in some models. One version of the future has us at a "worst-case scenario" with highs in the single digits below zero.
Why the two week weather forecast Minneapolis is so weird this year
We are currently in a weak La Niña year. Usually, La Niña means "bundle up, kid, it’s gonna be a long one." But the 2025-2026 season has been messy.
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Since the early 90s, the "traditional" La Niña rules have basically been thrown out the window. We’re seeing more "warm" La Niña winters—about 5 out of the last 6 have been among the warmest on record.
But "warm" in Minnesota is relative. It means we get these weird spikes to 40°F followed by a week where your nostrils freeze shut the second you step outside.
Dealing with the "Grey"
The biggest hurdle isn't even the temperature; it's the lack of sun. January is statistically the cloudiest month in Minneapolis. We’re talking overcast or mostly cloudy 59% of the time.
If you're feeling that mid-winter slump, you aren't alone. The two week weather forecast Minneapolis shows a lot of "partly sunny" and "mostly cloudy" labels.
How do we survive this without losing our minds?
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- Hit the Mall of America: Not for the shopping, but for the "Power Walking." Each level is roughly a mile. It’s 70 degrees in there.
- The Great Northern Festival: This starts late January (Jan 28). If you can make it through this cold snap, there are saunas and outdoor yoga to look forward to.
- Check your tires: Seriously. These 40-to-10 degree swings create "flash freeze" conditions on the roads.
Is there an end in sight?
The Farmer’s Almanac is predicting a "pronounced cold spell" for mid-January, which aligns perfectly with what we are seeing on the local radars right now.
However, they are also calling for "turning very mild" as we head into late January and early February. So, while the next 14 days look like a test of human endurance, the long-term outlook suggests we might get another one of those weird 40-degree weeks soon.
Moving forward: Your survival checklist
Don't let the 40-degree Monday fool you. The "Arctic Slap" this weekend is real.
- Seal your windows: If you feel a draft, use that plastic shrink-wrap stuff. It’s ugly, but it works.
- Keep the tank half-full: Condensation in your gas tank is a real thing when the temp swings 30 degrees in a day.
- Layering 101: It’s all about the base layer. If you aren't wearing wool or synthetic wicking fabric against your skin, you’re doing it wrong.
Keep an eye on the "northwest flow" mentioned in the NWS discussions. That’s the wind direction that brings the "hurts your face" air. If you see the wind shifting to the south later next week, that’s your signal to finally come out of hibernation.
Check the hourly updates before you head out on Thursday evening; that snow system looks small, but in Minneapolis, a "small" snow on a work night is enough to double your travel time.