Honestly, if you’ve lived in the Twin Cities for more than a minute, you know that January is basically a month-long game of weather roulette. One day you’re walking around in a light jacket because it hit 43 degrees, and the next, you’re wondering if your eyelashes are actually freezing together.
We just came off a weirdly mild start to the month. Temperatures were running about 9 degrees warmer than usual through mid-January, which sounds great until you realize the bill always comes due in Minnesota. That "bill" is the polar vortex, and it’s currently knocking on our front door.
The two week forecast Minneapolis is looking like a brutal reality check for anyone who thought we might skate through winter without the subzero sting.
The Polar Vortex Reality Check
Basically, the "nice" January we were having just hit a wall. A massive displacement of the polar vortex is sending arctic air straight down from northern Canada. We aren't just talking "chilly"—we are talking about temperatures 15 to 30 degrees below the average for this time of year.
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Right now, as of Saturday, January 17, the current temperature is hovering at 9°F with a northwest wind making it feel like -6°F. That’s the baseline. It’s only going down from here.
Why the Next 14 Days Look Different
Usually, people expect a big, dramatic blizzard to usher in the cold. But the current setup is more of a "clipper" pattern. These are fast-moving systems that don't dump a foot of snow at once but instead keep us in a constant cycle of light snow and plummeting mercury.
- The Deep Freeze (Jan 18 - Jan 20): Tomorrow, Sunday, we’re looking at snow showers with a high of 14°F, but don't let that fool you. The overnight low is going to tank to -10°F. By Monday, the high might not even break zero, with a projected top temperature of -1°F and a low of -11°F.
- Mid-Week "Warm-up": Kinda. Wednesday, January 21, brings a high of 18°F, which will probably feel like a tropical vacation compared to Monday. There’s a 20% chance of light snow during the day.
- The Secondary Sink (Jan 24 - Jan 27): This is where it gets really gnarly. Next weekend, specifically Saturday, January 24, we’re eyeing a high of -4°F and a low of -14°F.
What Most People Get Wrong About Minneapolis Snow
You’ll hear people say "it's too cold to snow," which is a total myth. While it’s true that super frigid air holds less moisture, the clippers moving through over the next two weeks are going to prove otherwise. We’ve only had about 0.8 inches of snow at MSP airport so far this month, which is way behind the 5-inch average.
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We are about to make up for lost time. Between January 18 and 28, snowy periods are expected to be frequent. It won't be the kind of heavy, wet snow you can build a snowman with. It’ll be that fine, powdery stuff that the wind loves to whip across the highway, tanking visibility to near zero.
The Wind Chill Factor
Wind is the real villain in the Twin Cities. With northwest gusts hitting 14 to 16 mph over the next few days, those single-digit temperatures are going to feel significantly worse. We are looking at wind chills in the -20°F to -30°F range. At those numbers, frostbite can happen on exposed skin in about 30 minutes.
Survival Steps for the Next 14 Days
Since we’re stuck with this forecast until the end of the month, you’ve gotta play it smart. Honestly, the biggest mistake people make is underestimating the "quick trip" to the store.
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- Check your battery: Cold kills car batteries that are more than three years old. If your car groaned this morning, it probably won't start on Monday morning when it's -11°F.
- Layer, don't just bulk: Use a moisture-wicking base layer. The last thing you want is to break a sweat shoveling snow and then have that dampness freeze against your skin.
- Pet safety: If it's too cold for you to stand outside in your bare feet for five minutes, it's too cold for your dog. Shorten the walks.
- Humidity control: Your indoor humidity is going to crater. Keep an eye on it to avoid the itchy skin and bloody noses that define a Minnesota January.
The outlook from the National Weather Service suggests this arctic flow will stick around through late January. While the first half of the month was 9 degrees above normal, the second half is going to be so cold it’ll likely pull the entire month’s average back down to normal—or even below.
Basically, winter just decided to show up all at once. Dress accordingly.
Actionable Insights:
- Prepare for Monday: Monday, January 19, will be the coldest day of the week with a high of -1°F. Limit outdoor exposure.
- Snow Timing: Expect light accumulations (1-3 inches) periodically between now and Saturday morning.
- Travel Alert: Blowing snow will be a major issue on I-94 and I-35 due to the 15+ mph winds. Check MnDOT's 511 app before heading out.