We’re closer to the brink than we’ve ever been. It sounds like hyperbole, the kind of thing you hear in a summer blockbuster or from a guy on a street corner holding a cardboard sign, but it’s the literal stance of some of the world’s smartest people. When the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists moves the hand to two minutes to midnight, or even closer as they have recently, they aren't just making a creative guess. They are looking at a messy, terrifying cocktail of nuclear proliferation, climate collapse, and "disruptive technologies" that most of us are too busy to think about while we’re scrolling through TikTok.
It’s scary. Honestly, it’s meant to be. The Doomsday Clock was never intended to be a weather report; it’s a warning system.
People often mistake the Clock for a countdown. It isn't. You can’t set your watch to it because "midnight" isn't a specific date on a calendar. It represents global catastrophe—the point where human civilization as we know it effectively ends. For decades, the phrase two minutes to midnight stood as the absolute benchmark for the highest level of danger we had ever faced, specifically during the Cold War.
The 1953 Moment and Why It Set the Bar
To understand why the world freaked out a few years ago when we hit the two-minute mark again, you have to go back to 1953. This was the year the United States and the Soviet Union both decided to test thermonuclear weapons. We aren't talking about the bombs dropped on Hiroshima or Nagasaki. We’re talking about hydrogen bombs—weapons so much more powerful that the original atomic bombs were basically just the "fuses" for them.
The Bulletin shifted the clock to two minutes to midnight back then because, for the first time, humanity had the genuine, localized capability to erase itself.
There’s a common misconception that the clock only moves because of bombs. That’s wrong. While the 1953 move was purely about the "H-bomb," the modern criteria for the clock have expanded significantly. They look at everything now. Cyber warfare. Synthetic biology. The slow-motion train wreck of carbon emissions. When the scientists gathered in Chicago or DC to discuss the setting, they aren't just looking at silos in North Dakota or Russia; they’re looking at the fact that the "architecture of global security" is basically crumbling.
The Myth of the "Metaphorical" Clock
I hear this a lot: "It’s just a PR stunt by some scientists."
Well, kinda. But also, no.
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The Bulletin was founded by Manhattan Project scientists—the very people who built the bomb and then realized, with a soul-crushing weight, what they’d actually done. J. Robert Oppenheimer, Albert Einstein, Eugene Rabinowitch. These weren't activists looking for clout. They were experts who understood the physics of extinction. When they created the Clock in 1947, it was set at seven minutes to midnight. Why seven? Because the artist, Martyl Langsdorf, thought it looked good aesthetically on the magazine cover.
But the movement of the clock is anything but aesthetic. It’s a peer-reviewed panic.
In 2018, the clock hit two minutes to midnight again. It stayed there in 2019. This was the first time since the height of the Cold War that we had reached that level of proximity to "zero." The reasons given by the Bulletin’s Science and Security Board were chillingly diverse. They cited the breakdown of the INF Treaty (Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty), the expansion of nuclear arsenals in southern Asia, and the "intentional corruption of the information ecosystem." That last one is a fancy way of saying that if we can't agree on what is true, we can't solve any of the other problems.
When Seconds Become the New Minutes
In 2020, something weird happened. The scientists decided that "minutes" weren't a precise enough measurement anymore. They moved the clock to 100 seconds to midnight. Then, more recently, to 90 seconds.
We are currently living in the "seconds" era.
This shift reflected a belief that the world has entered a period of "permanent instability." It’s not just one crisis anymore. It’s the "polycrisis." You’ve got a war in Ukraine involving a nuclear-armed superpower, a climate that is breaking records for heat every single month, and the rise of AI that could potentially automate the decision-making process for launching weapons.
If two minutes to midnight was the sound of a fire alarm, 90 seconds is the smell of smoke in the hallway.
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What People Get Wrong About Nuclear Risk
Most people think of a nuclear exchange as a "push the button" scenario. A movie trope. In reality, the risk the Bulletin worries about most is miscalculation.
History is littered with "almosts." In 1983, Stanislav Petrov, a Soviet officer, saw five incoming US missiles on his screen. His gut told him it was a computer error, so he didn't report it. He was right—it was sunlight reflecting off clouds—but if he’d followed protocol, I wouldn't be writing this and you wouldn't be reading it.
When the clock is at two minutes to midnight, it means the margin for error has basically vanished. If a technical glitch happens during a period of high diplomatic tension, there’s no "wait and see" period. You use it or you lose it. That’s the logic of MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction), and it’s as active today as it was in the fifties. Maybe more so, because the tech is faster now. Hyper-sonic missiles don't give a president 30 minutes to decide. They give them six.
The Climate Factor
It’s not all about the "Big One."
Since 2007, the Bulletin has officially included climate change as a existential threat on par with nuclear war. Some people hated this. They argued it diluted the message. But the scientists disagreed. Their logic is pretty straightforward: climate change is a "threat multiplier."
Imagine a world where the water runs out in a region already on the brink of war. India and Pakistan, for example. Both have nukes. Both are seeing massive heatwaves and water stress. If a resource war starts there, the hand of the clock isn't just going to move—it’s going to snap off.
Why the Clock Matters in 2026
You might feel like this is all just doom-scrolling fodder. Why bother caring about a clock that only seems to move closer to midnight?
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Because it has moved back before.
After the Cold War ended, in 1991, the clock was moved to 17 minutes to midnight. That’s the safest we’ve ever been. We got there because of massive, sweeping diplomatic efforts. The START I treaty was signed. The Soviet Union dissolved. There was a genuine "peace dividend."
The clock is a gauge of human agency. If we built the problems, we can unbuild them. It sounds cheesy, I know. But the data shows that when the clock moves closer to midnight, it often spurs diplomatic conversations that wouldn't happen otherwise. It puts a "price" on inaction that politicians can't entirely ignore.
What We Can Actually Do
It’s easy to feel paralyzed when experts say we’re 90 seconds from the end of everything. You can't personally dismantle a warhead or suck a billion tons of carbon out of the sky. But the "actionable" part of the two minutes to midnight warning isn't about individual lifestyle changes; it’s about political pressure.
- Demand Nuclear Transparency: The biggest risk is the "secret" modernization of arsenals. Support policies that demand open communication between nuclear powers. Hotlines matter.
- Fix the Information Ecosystem: The Bulletin explicitly mentions "fake news" and "information warfare" as reasons for the clock's movement. Being a responsible consumer of information—not sharing unverified rage-bait—actually lowers the global temperature.
- Climate is Security: View climate policy through the lens of national and global security, not just "the environment." A stable climate is a prerequisite for a world that doesn't blow itself up.
- Support the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT): This is the backbone of global safety. It’s currently under immense strain. Strengthening it is the only way to move the hands back toward the 10-minute mark.
The clock is ticking, but it hasn't struck twelve yet. The whole point of two minutes to midnight is that those two minutes can last forever if we work hard enough at the "maintenance" of peace. It's a choice we make every year.
Check the Current Status
The Bulletin updates the clock every January. Stay informed not just on the time, but on the reasons behind the shift. Understanding the specific threats—whether it's autonomous weapons or a specific regional conflict—allows for more targeted advocacy.
Pressure Leadership on "No First Use" Policies
One of the simplest ways to move the clock back is for nuclear states to adopt "No First Use" (NFU) policies. This alone reduces the chance of an accidental or "pre-emptive" strike based on false radar data.
Engage with Local Science Advocacy
The Bulletin is a group of scientists. Support organizations that bridge the gap between hard science and public policy. When science is ignored in favor of political theatre, the clock always moves forward.