You’ve probably heard the rumors that Arizona is basically a blast furnace year-round. While that’s mostly true in July when the asphalt starts to look like a Dali painting, January in the Old Pueblo is a completely different beast. Honestly, if you're looking at the 10 day forecast for tucson arizona, you're likely seeing a mix of "perfect patio weather" and "why is my windshield frozen?"
Tucson is weird like that.
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Right now, as we sit in mid-January 2026, the desert is pulling its classic bait-and-switch. We are coming off one of the warmest Decembers on record for the entire Intermountain West, and yet, the nights still bite. It's that dry Sonoran air—it doesn't hold onto heat. The second that sun dips behind the Tucson Mountains, the temperature drops faster than a lead balloon.
The 10 Day Forecast for Tucson Arizona: A Detailed Breakdown
If you're planning your week, here is the raw data for the next ten days. We aren't talking about "averages" here; this is what the models are actually spitting out for the end of January.
Most of this week is dominated by a massive ridge of high pressure parked right off the West Coast. For us, that means "The Big Blue." Just endless, boringly beautiful sunshine.
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- Friday, Jan 16: We’re looking at a high of 71°F. It’s a gorgeous, sunny day. By tonight, it clears out and drops to 45°F.
- Saturday, Jan 17: Temps climb slightly to 73°F. It’s perfect for the Sonoran Desert Weedwackers event or hitting the trails at Saguaro National Park. Low of 44°F.
- Sunday, Jan 18: More of the same. High 74°F, low 45°F. You might see a few clouds drifting in by evening, but nothing that’s going to ruin your BBQ.
- Monday, Jan 19 (MLK Day): It gets a bit moodier. Expect a cloudy day with a high of 74°F. There’s a tiny 10% chance of a stray sprinkle, but don't bet the farm on it. Low stays warmer at 47°F.
- Tuesday, Jan 20: The clouds start to break. High of 73°F and a crisp low of 47°F.
- Wednesday, Jan 21: Back to full-on Vitamin D. Sunny skies, high of 72°F, low of 46°F.
- Thursday, Jan 22: High 71°F. It’s starting to feel just a tiny bit cooler as a new system starts to "bowl over" that ridge. Low of 48°F.
The Big Shift: When the Rain Arrives
Everything changes toward the end of next week. The National Weather Service in Tucson is watching a southern upper-low that’s trying to undercut the ridge. If it makes it through, Friday and Saturday are going to be soggy.
- Friday, Jan 23: Light rain begins. High of 69°F. But check the night—a 75% chance of showers and a low of 51°F.
- Saturday, Jan 24: This is the "wet" day. A 75% chance of rain during the day with a high of only 65°F.
- Sunday, Jan 25: The system clears out. Partly sunny with a high of 68°F and a low of 49°F.
- Monday, Jan 26: We bounce back to 73°F under partly sunny skies.
Why Tucson Weather is More Complex Than You Think
People think "desert" and think "dry." And yeah, it’s dry. But did you know Tucson actually gets two distinct rainy seasons? We have the famous summer monsoons, but the winter rains—like the ones projected for Jan 23rd—are arguably more important for the vegetation. These are slow, soaking "stratiform" rains. They don't have the drama of a lightning storm, but they are what keep the saguaros plump and the wildflowers ready to pop in March.
The National Weather Service recently noted that we are in a bit of a "snow drought" higher up. While it’s 70°F down here in the valley, the lack of snowpack on Mt. Lemmon is actually a huge concern for our water supply. If those late-month storms don't deliver, we’re looking at a very dry spring.
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What to Actually Pack
If you’re visiting, don't be the person in shorts at 7:00 AM. You will regret your life choices.
Basically, you need layers. A morning in Tucson is 45°F—that’s "puffy jacket" weather for locals. By 2:00 PM, it’s 74°F—that’s "t-shirt and flip-flops" weather. If you're heading to the Anza Tour at Canoa Ranch or birding at Maeveen Behan, bring a fleece you can shed.
Actionable Tips for This Week
- Water your plants now: Since we’ve had such a dry winter (2025 was one of the driest on record), your desert landscaping needs a drink before the Friday rain hits.
- Check your tires: When it finally rains in Tucson after a long dry spell, the roads get incredibly slick because of the oil buildup. Jan 24th will be a mess on I-10.
- Cover the pipes: We haven't hit a hard freeze yet this week, but with lows hitting 44°F, it's a good reminder to make sure your foam covers are ready for when the "Polar Vortex" snippets mentioned in recent forecasts actually migrate south.
The desert is at its best in January. It's quiet, the light is golden, and the air is so clear you can see the grain of the rocks on the Catalina Mountains. Just keep an eye on that Friday storm—it might just be the thing that saves our spring wildflower season.