Tucson is weird. Honestly, if you've lived here for more than a week, you know the desert doesn't follow the rules you learned in geography class. People think "Arizona" and immediately picture a scorched wasteland where the sidewalk melts your shoes. But right now, in the middle of January 2026, we’re looking at a Tucson AZ 30 day weather forecast that feels more like a confused spring than a stereotypical winter.
It’s actually nice. Really nice.
As of today, Wednesday, January 14, it’s a crisp 46°F outside with a light 3 mph breeze coming from the southeast. If you're heading out to Grab a coffee at Presta or hitting the Loop, you're looking at a high of 74°F later today. That’s the magic of the Old Pueblo in January—you start the morning in a parka and end the afternoon in a T-shirt.
The Immediate 10-Day Breakdown
Forget the "dry heat" cliches for a second. We’ve actually got some moisture creeping into the long-range outlook.
Tomorrow, Thursday, January 15, is going to be the peak of this little warm spell. We’re hitting 76°F. It’s basically perfect. There is a tiny 10% chance of rain during the day, but don't cancel your hiking plans at Sabino Canyon just yet.
By the time we hit the weekend, things level out. Saturday and Sunday (Jan 17-18) are hanging out in the low 70s. But keep an eye on Monday, January 19. It’s going to get cloudy. The humidity is sitting low at 18%, but the gray skies will make it feel a bit moodier than your typical postcard-perfect Tucson day.
Then things get interesting.
Next week, specifically Thursday and Friday (Jan 22-23), the "chances of showers" start looking real. We’re talking a 35% chance of rain on Friday the 23rd, with the high temperature dropping down to 64°F. That’s a ten-degree swing in a few days. If you’re planning on being outdoors, that’s the window where you’ll actually want a real jacket.
Why the Tucson AZ 30 Day Weather Forecast is So Unpredictable
Climate experts like Michael Crimmins at the University of Arizona have been pointing out for years that our winter rain patterns are shifting. Usually, we rely on these big "Pacific fronts" to move in and dump steady, soaking rain.
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But 2026 is acting a bit differently.
We’re seeing more "cut-off lows"—these weird weather systems that break away from the main jet stream and just hover over the Southwest. They make 30-day predictions a nightmare for meteorologists. One day the models say it'll be bone dry, and the next, a stray system wanders over the Catalina Mountains and we’re suddenly dealing with localized flooding on the east side.
Humidity and Your Skin
Kinda funny how we obsess over the temp but forget the dew point. Right now, the humidity is bouncing between 20% and 54%. When it hits that 54% mark at night, it feels "heavy" for a desert dweller. But for the next month, expect it to stay mostly in the "comfortable" range (under 30%).
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Basically, keep the moisturizer handy. Your skin will thank you.
Looking Into February
If you’re looking at the tail end of this 30-day window, February in Tucson is usually a bit of a wildcard. Historically, February brings an average high of 67°F, but we often see "False Spring" where the temperatures spike into the 80s before one last cold snap hits in March.
The Farmer’s Almanac and the NWS are both leaning toward a slightly warmer-than-average end to the month. We’re looking at:
- Jan 24 - Jan 31: Sunny but colder. Expect lows to dip back into the high 30s or low 40s.
- Early February: A mix of rainy periods and chilly nights.
- Mid-February: The sun returns in full force, and we likely climb back into the 70s.
Real Talk: What to Pack or Wear
If you’re visiting or just trying to survive the commute, layers aren't just a suggestion; they're a survival strategy.
Since the low tonight is 42°F and tomorrow's high is 76°F, that is a 34-degree difference. That's massive. Most people make the mistake of dressing for the afternoon at 8:00 AM. Don't do that. You’ll be shivering at the bus stop and then sweating through your sweater by lunchtime.
Actionable Steps for the Next 30 Days:
- Check your irrigation: Even though we have some rain in the forecast for Jan 23, the desert is still thirsty. If you have citrus trees, keep an eye on those overnight lows. Anything under 32°F means you need to cover them, though we haven't seen those "hard freeze" numbers in the immediate 10-day data.
- Plan your hikes for the mornings: The UV index is currently sitting at a 3. It's low, but the desert sun is deceptive. You’ll still get a sunburn at 72°F if you’re out on the Ridge Trail for four hours.
- Watch the washes: If that 35% chance of rain on Jan 23 turns into a real downpour, remember: "Turn Around, Don't Drown." Tucson’s drainage is famously... let's call it "natural."
- Filter your forecast: Don't just trust a generic "Arizona" weather report. Tucson is significantly cooler and wetter than Phoenix because of our elevation (we're at about 2,400 feet). Always look for the KTUS (Tucson International Airport) station data for the most accurate local numbers.
The rest of January looks like prime patio weather. Grab a seat outside while the temps are in the 70s, because before you know it, the triple digits will be back to haunt us.