Honestly, if you've lived in the Old Pueblo long enough, you know the drill. You wake up in a puffer jacket, and by noon you're questioning why you didn't wear shorts. But looking at the 10 day forecast for tucson starting this January 18, things are getting a bit more complicated than our usual "dry heat" routine.
We are currently sitting in a sweet spot, but there’s a shift coming that might actually require you to find where you stashed that umbrella.
The Immediate Vibe: Classic High Desert
Right now, today is basically a postcard. We’re hitting a high of 74°F with some lazy, partly sunny clouds drifting over the Catalinas. It’s the kind of weather that makes everyone in the Midwest want to move here. Tonight, it’ll dip down to 44°F, which is pretty standard for a January night at this altitude.
Monday and Tuesday (January 19-20) keep that momentum going. We’re looking at highs of 73°F and 72°F. It’s consistent. It’s predictable. It’s perfect for a hike at Sabino Canyon before the shadows get too long.
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When the Rain Actually Shows Up
Here is where the 10 day forecast for tucson gets interesting. Most people assume winter in the desert is just a series of slightly cooler sunny days. Not this week. By Friday, January 23, a system is rolling in that's going to knock our temperatures down and actually bring some moisture.
We’re talking about a high of only 67°F on Friday with a 45% chance of rain during the day.
It gets wetter at night. The chance of showers jumps to 65% on Friday night, and the low will hang around 50°F. This isn't just a "maybe" sprinkle; it's a legitimate weather event for us. This damp trend continues into the weekend:
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- Saturday (Jan 24): High of 66°F, light rain likely (35% chance).
- Sunday (Jan 25): High of 64°F, still seeing that 35% chance of rain.
The humidity is going to spike too. We usually hover in the teens or low twenties, but by next Sunday, we’re looking at 51% humidity. For Tucson, that feels practically tropical.
What Most People Get Wrong About Tucson Winters
A lot of visitors think "Arizona" means "hot" 24/7. That's a mistake that leads to a lot of shivering tourists at the Gem Show. The temperature swing in the 10 day forecast for tucson is a perfect example: we have a 30-degree difference between the day’s peak and the night’s floor.
When that rain hits on Friday and Saturday, that dampness clings to the desert floor. It makes that 64 degrees feel much crispier than a dry 64.
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The Long View: Heading Toward February
As we move into the tail end of this forecast, the sun starts to reclaim its territory. By Monday, January 26, the rain clears out, leaving us with a mostly sunny 67°F.
By the time we hit Wednesday, January 28, we’re back up to a beautiful 75°F. It’s a classic recovery. The desert drinks, the dust settles, and then the sun comes back to remind you why you pay the "sun tax" to live here.
Practical Steps for the Next 10 Days
- Layers are your best friend. Don't trust the 74-degree high. That 44-degree low will catch you if you're out past sunset without a jacket.
- Prep for Friday's commute. Tucson drivers and rain don't always mix well. With a 65% chance of rain Friday night, expect the usual drainage issues on side streets.
- Hydrate regardless. Even when it’s "chilly" and raining, the desert air is still pulling moisture out of you.
- Watch the UV index. It’s staying around a 3 for most of the week. It’s low, but if you’re out for hours, the winter sun can still sneak up on you.
The back half of this 10-day stretch is definitely the "wet" highlight of the month. Keep those boots handy for the weekend, but keep the sunglasses closer—the sun is never gone for long in Tucson.