If you've been following the news lately, you probably think you have Donald Trump’s Israel policy figured out. It’s all "total support" and "no daylight" between him and Bibi, right? Well, honestly, it’s a lot more complicated than the headlines suggest.
By early 2026, the situation in the Middle East has shifted into a bizarre new phase. We aren't just talking about the "Deal of the Century" anymore. We’re talking about Phase 2 of the Trump Peace Plan, a 20-point strategy that is currently trying to do the impossible: rebuild Gaza without Hamas while keeping a very skeptical Benjamin Netanyahu on board.
The Mar-a-Lago Reality Check
Just a few weeks ago, in late December 2025, Netanyahu showed up at Mar-a-Lago for their sixth major summit. On the surface, it was a total lovefest. Trump called him a "hero" and a "wartime prime minister." Netanyahu even announced that Trump would be the first non-Israeli in nearly 80 years to receive the Israel Prize.
But don't let the awards fool you.
Behind the scenes, the friction is real. Trump has been privately pushing Netanyahu to "get it over with." He’s worried about the optics. He’s told the Israeli press that Israel is "losing the PR war." Basically, Trump wants the conflict finished because it’s messy, it’s expensive, and it gets in the way of his real goal: a massive normalization deal with Saudi Arabia.
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What the Trump Plan Actually Looks Like in 2026
Most people think Trump just gives Israel a blank check. That’s not quite right. His current 20-point plan for Gaza is actually making some hardliners in Israel pretty nervous.
Here is the breakdown of what's happening right now:
- The Technocratic Committee: As of January 14, 2026, the U.S. launched "Phase 2." This involves a committee of Palestinian technocrats—basically experts and bureaucrats—taking over the daily running of Gaza.
- The "Yellow Line": The IDF has withdrawn to a specific demarcation line. They currently control about 53% of the Strip, but the plan calls for a total withdrawal in Phase 3.
- The Board of Peace: This is a group Trump wants to lead personally, consisting of Middle Eastern and European heads of state to oversee the whole reconstruction process.
- The Disarmament Ultimatum: Trump has warned there will be "hell to pay" if Hamas doesn't fully disarm. He’s not interested in a long-term insurgency.
The Palestinian Authority Elephant in the Room
Here’s the part that catches people off guard. While Trump spent years slamming the Palestinian Authority (PA), his 2026 strategy relies on them. The "technocratic committee" is led by people like Ali Shaath, a former PA deputy minister.
Trump is essentially trying to sneak the PA back into Gaza through the side door.
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Why? Because you need someone to pick up the trash and run the schools who isn't Hamas. Netanyahu hates this. He’s been dragging his feet on Phase 2 because he doesn't want any version of the PA in charge. Trump, meanwhile, is losing patience. He wants a "post-Hamas era" yesterday.
Iran and the "Knock Down" Policy
You can't talk about Trump’s stance on Israel without talking about Iran. This is where he’s at his most aggressive. During the December summit, he explicitly warned that if Iran tries to rebuild its nuclear facilities, the U.S. will "have to knock them down" again.
He’s basically offering Israel a security umbrella that allows them to take big risks in Gaza. He’s telling them: "I’ll handle the big threat (Iran), but you need to wrap up the local fight (Gaza) so we can sign the Saudi deal."
Why This Matters for the 2026 Elections
It's an election year in both the U.S. and Israel.
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Trump is using his "total support" for Israel to hammer Democrats at home, claiming a Harris presidency would mean "Israel is gone." But at the same time, he’s pressuring Netanyahu to make concessions that would make the Israeli right-wing's heads spin—like a settlement freeze in certain areas to keep the "two-state" door a tiny bit open for the Saudis.
What Most People Get Wrong
The biggest misconception is that Trump is an ideologue. He’s not. He’s a dealmaker. If he thinks a "Palestinian State" (even a limited, demilitarized one) is the price for a Nobel Prize-winning deal with Saudi Arabia, he’ll take it.
He’s already shown this. Back in 2020, he blocked the annexation of the West Bank to get the Abraham Accords signed. He’ll do it again.
Actionable Insights: What to Watch Next
If you're trying to figure out where this goes, stop looking at the tweets and start looking at these three things:
- The Rafah Crossing: Watch if Trump successfully pressures Israel to fully open this. It’s a major point of private contention right now.
- The "Amnesty Program": The U.S. is currently talking to Hamas (through mediators) about an amnesty program for militants who lay down their arms. If this gains traction, it’s a massive shift.
- The Israel Prize Ceremony: Watch the rhetoric here. If Trump uses his acceptance speech to demand an end to the war, it means the "honeymoon" with Netanyahu’s current coalition is officially over.
The bottom line? Trump’s stance on Israel isn't a static "yes" to everything the Israeli government wants. It’s a high-stakes push for a regional reset that values a finished war and a Saudi signature over the specific territorial ambitions of the Israeli right.
To stay ahead of the curve, monitor the official White House briefings on the "Board of Peace" appointments. These names will tell you exactly how much control Trump intends to exert over the "day after" in Gaza. Also, keep an eye on the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) negotiations scheduled for later this year; the terms of U.S. military aid for the next decade will be the ultimate leverage point.