If you’re looking at the headlines today, you might think the numbers are set in stone. They aren't. Donald Trump’s latest approval rating isn't a single number you can just pin to a wall; it’s more like a moving target in a very messy room. As of mid-January 2026, the data is coming in fast, and honestly, it’s a bit of a rollercoaster for the White House.
One year into his second term, the honeymoon—if there ever was one—has largely evaporated.
According to the most recent aggregate data from January 16, 2026, Donald Trump’s latest approval rating is hovering right around 42.1%. That’s the RealClearPolitics average, which pools several major surveys. But if you look at individual polls, the story gets way more granular. For instance, a CBS News/YouGov survey released just hours ago on January 18, 2026, shows a stabilized but "uneasy" electorate. While his base remains largely locked in, the broader American public is signaling some serious fatigue.
Why the numbers are sliding right now
It’s about the wallet. Always is.
Basically, the biggest anchor dragging down the numbers is the cost of living. Even though the administration has been touting new trade deals and a "tough on crime" agenda, people are still feeling the sting at the grocery store. A recent Brookings analysis pointed out that while Trump does reasonably well on immigration (around 38-41% approval depending on the poll), he’s getting absolutely hammered on inflation.
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In fact, his approval for handling the economy has dipped to a second-term low of about 37% in some datasets. People are frustrated. They feel like the focus has shifted toward foreign entanglements—like the ongoing tensions and military movements regarding Venezuela—rather than the price of a gallon of milk.
The Independent "Exodus"
This is the part that should keep GOP strategists up at night.
- Independents are checking out. In January 2025, Trump was nearly breaking even with independent voters.
- The shift is massive. By December 2025 and into this month, his net approval with independents has cratered, sitting roughly 43 points underwater in some CNN/SSRS tracks.
- Partisan silos are stronger than ever. 91% of Republicans still back him, while only about 6% of Democrats do. That 85-point gap is one of the widest in modern polling history.
Comparing the "Double-Term" lows
It’s kinda fascinating to look at history here. Gallup’s historical trackers show that Trump’s current standing—around 36% to 42%—is remarkably similar to where he was at the end of his first year in his first term back in 2017.
He’s currently tied with his own record for the lowest approval rating for a president at the end of their first year in the last 50 years. To put that in perspective, George W. Bush was sitting at 86% in December of his first year (granted, that was post-9/11), and even Barack Obama was at 50%. The only person who had it worse at the five-year mark of a presidency (total years served) was Richard Nixon, who was languishing at 29% during the height of the Watergate scandal.
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Is there a path to recovery?
The numbers aren't all doom and gloom for the administration.
The latest YouGov data suggests the decline might finally be bottoming out. Between January 9 and January 12, 2026, his net approval actually ticked up slightly from -17 to -14. It’s a small win, but in this climate, the White House will take it.
The support among voters over 65 remains a "green shoot" for the President. Older Americans, who are often more insulated from certain labor market fluctuations but sensitive to stability, are currently among his strongest demographics alongside the core MAGA base.
What most people get wrong about these polls
People often mistake "disapproval" for "a vote for the other side."
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That’s not how this works. A lot of the people currently "disapproving" of Trump in these January 2026 polls are actually his own supporters who are "frustrated" (a word that popped up frequently in the CBS/YouGov interviews) because they want him to move faster on his promises. They aren't necessarily jumping ship to the Democrats; they’re just annoyed.
Moving forward: What to watch
If you want to know where the approval rating is headed next, stop looking at the national number and start looking at these three things:
- The Federal Reserve's next move: Trump has been publicly feuding with the Fed. If interest rates don't move in a way that eases housing costs, expect that 42% to drop into the high 30s.
- The "Venezuela Effect": As military actions continue, the public's appetite for "foreign adventures" is low. If this turns into a long-term occupation, it’s a political liability.
- The 2026 Midterm Primaries: Watch how candidates distance themselves from or lean into the President. Their internal polling is usually two weeks ahead of the public stuff.
Actionable Insight: If you're tracking these numbers for investment or political strategy, don't just look at the "Approve" headline. Check the "Strongly Disapprove" vs "Somewhat Disapprove" segments. If the "Somewhats" are growing, the President has a chance to win them back with a few quick economic wins. If the "Strongs" are growing, he's losing the room.
Keep an eye on the next Gallup release due in early February; that will be the definitive "One Year In" report card for this second term.