If you’re looking for a simple number, here it is: as of mid-January 2026, Donald Trump’s approval rating today is hovering right around 42%.
But that number is a bit like a single frame in a very long, very chaotic movie. It doesn't tell you about the plot twists or the ending. Honestly, the vibe in Washington right now is pretty tense. We’re officially one year into the second term, and the honeymoon period didn't just end—it basically vaporized.
According to the latest January 16, 2026, data from aggregators like RealClearPolitics and the New York Times, the president is sitting at a net negative of about 13 points. While 42% approve, a solid 55% disapprove. If you think that sounds low, you’re right. It’s actually one of the lowest marks for any modern president at the one-year mark of a term.
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The "Sticker Shock" Problem
Politics is usually about big ideas, but right now, it’s about the price of Oreos. I’m not even kidding. In a recent AP-NORC poll, voters specifically cited the cost of living as the reason they’re souring on the administration.
Inflation has "cooled" in the technical sense that economists talk about, but for most people, the prices are still stuck at the ceiling. Trump’s approval on the economy specifically is sitting at a dismal 36% to 41% depending on who you ask. People remember the first term as a time of lower prices, and there's a growing sense of frustration that the "magic wand" hasn't quite worked this time around.
Basically, the administration is finding out that it's much harder to lower prices than it is to promise to lower them.
Why the Numbers Flipped
In January 2025, Trump actually started with a bit of momentum. He had a net positive rating of about +6. But look at where we are now.
- Independents: This is where the real carnage is. Among independent voters, his net approval has plummeted by about 42 points over the last year.
- The Base: Republicans are still mostly on board (about 8 to 9 in 10 still approve), but even there, we’re seeing "soft" support. Only about 16% of Republicans say he’s helped "a lot" with the cost of living.
- The Issues: While he gets decent marks on immigration (around 43%) and crime, he’s underwater on healthcare (30%) and the federal budget.
Venezuela and the "Distraction" Factor
It’s not just the economy, though. The recent military maneuvers in Venezuela have split the room. A Quinnipiac poll from January 14 shows that while 47% support the capture of Nicolás Maduro, about 53% of voters don't think the administration has explained why we're there.
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There's a growing narrative among critics—and even some lukewarm supporters—that the administration is using foreign policy to distract from the fact that gas and groceries are still expensive. Whether that’s fair or not doesn't really matter for the polls; the perception is what’s driving the Trump approval rating today into the low 40s.
Can He Turn It Around?
History says yes, but the math says it'll be a climb.
We are heading straight into the 2026 midterms. Usually, the president's party takes a beating if the approval rating is under 50%. Right now, the "generic ballot" (which asks people if they’d rather have a Democrat or Republican in Congress) is showing a lead for Democrats.
However, there’s a silver lining for the White House: about 40% of the people who currently disapprove say they are "persuadable." They basically told pollsters, "If the economy gets better, I'll change my mind."
What to Watch Next
If you’re trying to track where this goes, don’t just look at the top-line number. Keep an eye on these three specific metrics over the next few months:
- Independent Swing: If that -43 point gap with independents doesn't start to close by June, the midterms will be a bloodbath for the GOP.
- The "Vibecessions": Watch the Consumer Confidence Index. If people feel better about their bank accounts, the approval rating will follow, regardless of what's happening in Venezuela or the news cycle.
- Tariff Impact: Most voters (75%) currently believe the new tariffs are raising prices. If the administration can’t prove otherwise, this will remain an anchor on the president’s popularity.
The most practical thing you can do to stay informed is to check the "Net Approval" rather than just the "Approve" number. A president can survive a 42% approval if their disapproval is also low, but with disapproval sitting at 55%, the "intensity" of the opposition is much higher than the intensity of the support.
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Follow the aggregate trackers like RealClearPolitics or the Silver Bulletin for the most stable data, as individual polls can jump around by 3-5 points just based on who they called that day.