It is mid-January 2026, and Donald Trump has just wrapped up his first full year back in the Oval Office. If you were expecting a massive honeymoon period or a total collapse, the data tells a much more "stuck" story. Honestly, looking at Trump’s approval rating right now, it’s like looking at a mirror of his first term—polarized, rigid, and deeply tied to the price of eggs.
Trump’s Approval Rating Right Now: The Hard Data
As of January 18, 2026, the polling averages are remarkably consistent across the board. RealClearPolling puts him at a 42.1% approval against a 55.3% disapproval. That leaves him roughly 13 points underwater.
Some pollsters are even a bit more pessimistic. Gallup’s latest check-in has him sitting at 36%, tying his own personal low from December 2017.
It’s a far cry from the 49.8% of the popular vote he snagged in the 2024 election. Back then, he entered his second term with about 47% approval on Inauguration Day. But that "new president smell" faded fast. By the time the holidays hit last month, his numbers had basically cratered among the people who actually decide elections: independents.
Harry Enten over at CNN pointed out something pretty wild recently. Trump started 2025 about 6 points "above water." By December, he was 12 points under. That is an 18-point swing in twelve months. If you’re a political strategist, that’s the kind of stat that keeps you up at night.
Why the numbers aren't moving
You’d think a major event like the military operation in Venezuela on January 3 would send these numbers flying in one direction or another.
Historically, presidents get a "rally 'round the flag" boost when they send in the troops. But we aren't in the 1990s anymore. Most Americans are skeptical. An AP-NORC poll found that 56% of people think Trump has "gone too far" with military intervention.
The partisan divide is basically a canyon at this point. Among Republicans, he’s still the king, pulling about 91% approval. Among Democrats? It’s roughly 6%. That 85-point gap hasn't moved an inch in a year.
The "Cost of Living" Crisis is Killing the Vibe
Forget the headlines about foreign policy for a second. The real reason Trump’s approval rating right now is struggling is the grocery store.
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Trump keeps talking about a "Trump economic boom," but the public isn't buying it. Only 37% of adults approve of his handling of the economy. That’s actually a slight improvement from December, which was a dismal 31%, but it's still lower than almost any point in his first term.
People are obsessed with three things:
- Inflation
- The cost of health care
- High prices at the pump
Even though gas prices have dipped slightly, it hasn't moved the needle. Why? Because people still feel like they’re falling behind. A huge majority in the latest CBS News poll says their income just isn't keeping pace with inflation.
Interestingly, his signature policy—tariffs—is starting to bite him. About 75% of Americans, including more than half of Republicans, think these tariffs are just making things more expensive. It turns out that "America First" trade policies feel a lot different when the price of a new truck or a bag of coffee spikes.
The Independent Problem
If you want to know where the 2026 midterms are headed, look at the independents.
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At the start of 2025, Trump was basically break-even with independent voters. Now? He’s roughly 43 points underwater with them. That is a collapse.
They aren't necessarily becoming Democrats, though. They’re just... frustrated. They feel like the administration is focusing on the "wrong priorities." While Trump is focused on immigration and global power moves, about two-thirds of the country says he should be focused on inflation and health care.
What to Watch in the Coming Months
We are heading into a midterm year, and the "stuck" nature of these ratings is a bad sign for Congressional Republicans. Right now, Democrats actually hold a 5-point lead in the generic "who would you vote for" polls for the House.
But here is the twist: about 40% of the electorate says they are still willing to change their minds about Trump.
They are waiting for a win on the economy. If inflation actually cools and people feel like they have more "mad money" in their pockets by June, those 42% approval numbers could easily jump back toward 48% or 50%.
Practical Takeaways for the Average Voter
If you’re trying to make sense of the noise, here’s how to read the room:
- Ignore the "Rigged" Claims: Trump recently posted on Truth Social that his "real" approval is 64%. There isn't a single non-partisan poll that supports that.
- Watch the "Net" Number: Total approval matters less than the "net" (Approve minus Disapprove). As long as he is -12 or -13, he is in a weak position for passing major legislation.
- The 37% Floor: Trump has a very loyal base. It’s unlikely his approval ever drops below the high 30s, no matter what happens. That’s his "floor."
- Follow the Fed: A lot of Trump's approval is tied to interest rates. He’s been publicly fighting with the Federal Reserve, and how that power struggle ends will likely dictate his 2026 numbers.
To get a clearer picture of where things are going, keep an eye on the Economist/YouGov weekly tracking polls. They tend to capture shifts in mood faster than the big legacy polls. If you see his "Strongly Disapprove" numbers start to dip below 45%, that’s your first sign of a real comeback. Otherwise, we’re looking at a president who is effectively locked in a stalemate with the American public.
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Check the latest data on the RealClearPolitics average every Tuesday morning. That's usually when the new batch of weekly data drops and the "average" gets recalibrated. If the trend stays flat through the spring, expect a very rocky primary season for the GOP.