If you’ve been watching the news lately, you probably think the country is basically split down the middle. It’s the usual story, right? But looking at Trump's approval rating as of today, the reality is a bit more lopsided than "fifty-fifty."
Honestly, the numbers are pretty rough.
After a year back in the Oval Office, Donald Trump is finding out that the "honeymoon phase" of a second term—if there ever was one—has evaporated faster than a puddle in July. As we roll through January 2026, the polling averages are telling a consistent, if grim, story for the White House.
The Cold, Hard Data
Right now, if you aggregate the big players like Gallup, Marist, and the latest AP-NORC data, Trump’s job approval is hovering somewhere between 36% and 42%.
That’s not great.
For context, he started this second stint in January 2025 with a much more respectable 47% or 48% approval rating. People were curious. Some were hopeful. But that 10-point slide over the last twelve months is what has political consultants in D.C. sweating through their shirts.
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Most recent surveys, specifically a Gallup poll from late December into early January, pinned him at 36% approval. That matches the rock-bottom lows of his first term. Meanwhile, disapproval has climbed into the high fifties, with some polls showing as many as 60% of Americans saying they aren't fans of how he's handling things.
It’s the Economy, (Still)
You’d think the "Trump Boom" would be the headline, but it’s actually the "Trump Price Tag" that people are talking about.
Inflation is the ghost that won't stop haunting this administration. Even though the President has spent the last month on Truth Social claiming that "prices are down and wages are up," the average person at the grocery store isn't feeling it.
His approval on the economy specifically is sitting at a dismal 31% to 37% depending on who you ask.
- Tariffs: The aggressive trade stances were a campaign staple, but now that they're being implemented, voters are connecting them to higher costs at big-box stores.
- Healthcare: This remains a massive weak point. Only about 30% of the public approves of his current healthcare direction.
- The "Wealth Gap" Perception: A staggering 65% of people in a recent Brookings report said they believe the administration's policies favor the wealthy over the middle class.
The Independent "Exodus"
This is the part that really matters for the 2026 midterms. Republicans still love him—his approval among the GOP remains in the 80% to 90% range. Democrats, predictably, are at near-zero.
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But the Independents? They’ve basically checked out.
In January 2025, Trump was roughly "even" with independent voters. Today, he’s nearly 43 points underwater with that group. You can’t win a midterm—or keep a steady mandate—when the middle of the road is running for the hills.
Trump's Approval Rating as of Today: Breaking Down the Issues
It’s not all bad news for the President, though it's mostly uphill. He still has some "strengths," if you can call them that in this climate.
Where He’s Holding Ground
Surprisingly, his numbers on crime and immigration are significantly higher than his overall job approval. People might not like the man, but a decent chunk—about 43%—still trust his "law and order" approach. Foreign affairs also see a slight bump compared to his domestic numbers, despite the controversy surrounding recent military posturing in South America.
The Venezuela Factor
The recent operation involving Venezuela has created a "rally 'round the flag" effect for some, but it’s been short-lived. Historically, these things give a president a 5-point bump. For Trump, it seems to have barely moved the needle because people are so focused on their own bank accounts.
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Why the Numbers Won't Budge
We live in an era of "calcification." Basically, most people have made up their minds about Donald Trump and nothing—not a court case, not a foreign intervention, not even a change in gas prices—is going to flip them.
He has a "floor" of about 35%. He also seems to have a "ceiling" of about 45%.
What This Means for 2026
We are heading into a midterm election year where the President is deeply unpopular with the very people who decide elections: suburban independents. If these numbers don't climb back toward 43% or 44% by the summer, the GOP is looking at a potential bloodbath in the House.
Actionable Insights for Following the Polls:
- Watch the "Net" Rating: Don't just look at the approval. Look at the "Strongly Disapprove" number. If that stays above 50%, he has no room to grow.
- Focus on the "Blue Wall" States: National polls are fine, but keep an eye on state-level data from Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. That's where the 2026 and 2028 battles will be won.
- Ignore the Outliers: Trump often cites polls showing him at 60%+. Unless that poll comes from a reputable, non-partisan firm like Marist, Monmouth, or Gallup, it's likely noise.
- The Inflation Pivot: Watch to see if the administration shifts its rhetoric on tariffs. If they start walking back trade threats, it’s a sign they know the economic approval ratings are sinking the ship.
At the end of the day, a president's approval rating is a snapshot of the national mood. Right now, that mood is frustrated, expensive, and deeply divided.
Next Steps for Staying Informed:
- Track the Aggregates: Bookmark RealClearPolitics or FiveThirtyEight's 2026 trackers to see the rolling average rather than single-day spikes.
- Monitor the CPI: Watch the Consumer Price Index releases; historically, Trump's approval moves in inverse correlation with the cost of eggs and gas.
- Verify the Source: Always check the "Sample" of a poll—surveys of "Registered Voters" (RV) are usually more accurate than "Adults" (A) when predicting election outcomes.