If you’ve noticed your local barista looking a bit stressed when you ask for a Colombian medium roast, it’s not just the caffeine. It’s the trade war. Honestly, the relationship between Washington and Bogotá has turned into a high-stakes poker game where the chips are coffee beans, roses, and crude oil.
Last year, the world watched as a 25% tariff was slapped onto Colombian goods. It wasn't a slow burn; it was a lightning strike. One minute, the US-Colombia Trade Promotion Agreement (TPA) was the bedrock of Andean trade, and the next, it was under a massive "America First" microscope.
What’s the beef?
Basically, it started with a fight over planes. President Gustavo Petro refused to let US military planes land to deport Colombian citizens back in early 2025. He wanted "dignity and respect." Trump wanted results. The response was immediate: a 25% across-the-board tariff.
While that specific tariff was briefly rolled back after a deal on the flights, the tension didn't evaporate. It mutated. By late 2025, the US "decertified" Colombia for failing to curb cocaine production. Now, as we sit in early 2026, we’re looking at a 10% to 15% baseline tariff that has stuck like glue to almost everything crossing the border.
Your shopping cart is the front line
Most people don't think about international trade when they’re buying a bouquet for a date. They should. Colombia provides roughly 70% of the cut flowers sold in the US. When a 10% tariff hits those stems, the price doesn't just go up by 10%. By the time you factor in shipping, logistics, and the "uncertainty tax" wholesalers add to protect their margins, you're paying way more.
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- Coffee: Arabica futures hit a 47-year high recently. A bag of Colombian beans that cost you $6.50 a couple of years ago is pushing $8.00 now.
- Flowers: Valentine’s Day 2026 is shaping up to be the most expensive on record.
- Gold: It’s a global commodity, so Colombian gold just finds other buyers in China or Switzerland, leaving US jewelers to pay premiums elsewhere.
- Oil: We still buy it, but we're paying the tariff-inflated price, which trickles down to your gas pump.
The Petro vs. Trump "War of Words"
It’s kinda wild to watch on X (formerly Twitter). One day Petro is calling the US actions a "blockade" and saying Colombia is the "heart of the world." The next, Trump is telling him to "watch his ass" because of the drug trade. This isn't just "politics as usual." It's a fundamental shift in how the US treats its oldest ally in South America.
For decades, Colombia was the "stable" partner. Now? They’re moving toward the BRICS New Development Bank. They’re cozying up to China for infrastructure deals. If you're a business owner, this is a nightmare. Supply chains that took twenty years to build are being rerouted in twenty weeks.
Why this is different this time
In the first term, tariffs were often used as a "threat" to get a better deal. This time, they feel like a permanent fixture of the new "Donroe Doctrine"—Trump’s version of the Monroe Doctrine. It basically says the US will intervene—economically or otherwise—whenever it feels its interests are at stake.
The US trade deficit with Colombia isn't even that huge compared to China or Mexico. But Colombia is being used as an example. If you don't stop the drugs and you don't take back the migrants, the TPA—the free trade deal—doesn't protect you anymore.
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The 2026 Election Factor
Colombia has its own elections coming up in May 2026. Petro can't run again, but the tariffs are a massive campaign issue.
- The Left (Iván Cepeda): They're using the "Yankee Imperialism" angle to fire up their base.
- The Right (Abelardo de la Espriella): They’re trying to position themselves as "Trump-adjacent," promising that if they win, the tariffs go away because they’ll "play ball."
It’s a mess.
Is there a silver lining?
Not really for consumers. But for some US manufacturers, the chaos is a signal to "nearshore." If you can't rely on a stable trade agreement with Colombia, maybe you move your textile plant to Central America or back to the States. Of course, that takes years and billions of dollars. In the meantime, the person paying for the transition is... you.
What should you do now?
If you're running a business that relies on Colombian imports, here is the reality:
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- Diversify your suppliers immediately. Don't dump Colombia—the quality is too good—but start looking at Brazilian coffee or Ecuadorean flowers as a hedge.
- Review your contracts. If you have "Force Majeure" clauses, check if they cover sudden "National Emergency" tariffs. Most don't. You need to bake the 10-15% cost into your 2026 pricing now.
- Watch the May 2026 election. The result in Bogotá will determine if these tariffs are a temporary fever or a permanent disability for the Andean trade route.
The days of "free trade" being a given are over. We’re in the era of "transactional trade." If you want the beans, you have to follow the rules—and those rules are changing every time a new post goes up on social media.
Wait for the March legislative elections in Colombia. They’ll be the first real indicator of whether the Colombian public wants to double down on Petro’s defiance or pivot back to Washington’s orbit. Until then, expect your morning latte to keep getting more expensive.
Next Steps:
- Analyze your current inventory's "Country of Origin" to see your total exposure to Andean tariffs.
- Monitor the US Department of Commerce's Section 232 investigations, as these often precede further tariff hikes on metals and raw materials.
- Consult with a trade attorney regarding potential "Exclusion" requests if your Colombian imports cannot be sourced elsewhere.