It’s been a wild year for anyone trying to balance a checkbook. If you feel like your dollar isn't stretching as far as it used to, you’re not imagining it. Since the start of the second Trump administration in early 2025, the trade landscape has shifted from "status quo" to "total overhaul."
Honestly, it's a lot to keep track of. We’ve seen the average effective US tariff rate jump from a modest 2.5% in 2024 to nearly 17% by the end of 2025. Some categories even saw peaks of 27%—the highest we've seen in over a hundred years.
You’ve probably heard the headlines about "60% on China" or "25% on Mexico," but what does that actually mean for your Saturday morning run to Costco or that laptop that’s finally on its last legs? Let’s talk about the stuff that is actually going up in price and what you should consider grabbing before the next wave of hikes hits in 2026.
The Big Ticket Items: Why Your Next Car Just Got More Expensive
If you’re planning on buying a new car, you might want to stop procrastinating. The auto industry is essentially one giant, cross-border assembly line. A part might be forged in Ontario, sent to Michigan for assembly, and then dipped back into Mexico for finishing. Under the current regime, those "border crossings" are getting taxed.
Expert analysts at Cox Automotive and the Anderson Economic Group have been sounding the alarm. For some models, the price tag could swell by as much as $12,200. Even the "cheaper" estimates suggest an average hike of $3,000 to $5,000 for vehicles imported from Canada and Mexico.
What to prioritize in the garage:
- Imported SUVs: Popular compact and subcompact SUVs are being hit the hardest because many are manufactured outside the US.
- Replacement Parts: This is the one people forget. Tires, brake pads, and sensors—especially those coming from China—are facing a 10% baseline reciprocal tariff that is expected to climb.
- Used Cars: When new car prices go up, everyone rushes to the used lot. That demand drives up the price of 2022 and 2023 models, too.
Electronics and the "Tech Tax"
Most of our gadgets are born in Asia. There’s really no way around it. While there were some initial "tariff truces" with China in late 2025, the underlying trend is upward.
The Consumer Technology Association (CTA) notes that smartphones, laptops, and game consoles could see double-digit price jumps. We’re talking about an 11% increase on average. If you’ve been eyeing a new MacBook Air or a Nintendo Switch, buying it now—before the current inventory (imported at lower rates) runs out—is just smart math.
Laptops are a specific pain point. Unlike some other goods, we don't really have a "domestic" version of a high-end laptop. You can't just switch to a "Made in USA" laptop if the Chinese or Taiwanese ones get too expensive because the entire supply chain lives over there.
The Kitchen Pantry: Why Your Olive Oil Is Liquid Gold
This is where the tariffs hit you on a Tuesday night when you’re just trying to make dinner. We import a staggering amount of food from Mexico and Canada—think avocado oil, beef, and fresh produce.
While the USMCA (the trade deal formerly known as NAFTA) technically offers some exemptions, those have been fluctuating wildly based on negotiations over migration and fentanyl.
The Costco Stockpile List
Don't go "2020 toilet paper" crazy. That helps no one. But, if you have a pantry, stocking up on these shelf-stable items can save you 15-30% over the next year:
- Avocado and Olive Oil: Most avocados come from Mexico, and most high-end olive oil is Mediterranean. Prices are already spiking.
- Hard Cheeses: Think Parmigiano-Reggiano or Gruyère. These are facing markups as high as 31%. The good news? Hard cheese freezes surprisingly well.
- Spices and Vanilla: Madagascar vanilla and various imported spices are looking at 40-50% tariff hikes.
- Canned Goods and Beer: The 50% tariff on aluminum and steel isn't just for skyscrapers. It applies to the cans your beans and beer come in.
Clothing and Shoes: The Hidden 40% Increase
Apparel is one of the most sensitive categories. Why? Because the margins are already thin and the production is almost entirely overseas. The National Retail Federation has warned that shoe prices could rise by as much as 40%, and clothing by 38%.
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If your kids are going to need new sneakers for school or you need a reliable winter coat, don't wait for the 2026 "Spring Fashion" releases. The items currently on the shelves were likely imported under older, lower rates. Once those are gone, the "New Arrivals" will reflect the current 25-60% tariff costs.
Why "Wait and See" Might Cost You
There’s a lot of talk about "negotiating" these tariffs down. We saw a bit of that in late 2025 with the U.S.-China truces. But here’s the reality: even if a tariff is "paused," the uncertainty alone causes prices to rise. Shipping companies raise rates. Importers "forward stock" (buy a bunch of stuff at once), which creates shortages and drives up costs anyway.
Essentially, we are in a period of "inventory distortion." Big retailers like Walmart and Home Depot are spending millions to bring in goods early. You should probably take a page out of their playbook.
Actionable Steps: Your Pre-Tariff Game Plan
- Audit your appliances: If your refrigerator or dishwasher is making that "I’m about to die" noise, replace it now. Major household appliances are now subject to 50% tariffs on the steel/aluminum components and 25% on the finished units if imported.
- Update your tech: If you need a new phone or laptop for work in 2026, get it before the Q1 refresh.
- Bulk buy the "unreplaceables": You can’t find a domestic substitute for French wine, Italian cheese, or Mexican avocados. If you love them, buy the shelf-stable versions now.
- Check the "Melt and Pour" status: If you’re doing home renovations, be aware that new mandates require steel and aluminum to be "melted and poured" in the US to avoid duties. This is making hardware like screws, beams, and siding much more expensive.
The goal isn't to panic. It's to be pragmatic. We are moving into a "high tariff" era, and the easiest way to protect your wallet is to buy what you need while the "old" prices are still on the tag.
Next Steps for You:
- Check the "Country of Origin" label on big-ticket items you're planning to buy; anything from China or Mexico is at highest risk for imminent hikes.
- Review your pantry for imported staples (oils, spices, coffee) and consider a bulk-buy trip this weekend.