It was the post heard ‘round the Great White North. On April 28, 2025, right as Canadians were getting ready to head to the polls, Donald Trump decided to drop a digital bomb. He didn't just comment on the race; he basically suggested the country shouldn't exist. "The cherished 51st state," he called it. Honestly, it was a moment that turned a predictable domestic election into a full-blown sovereignty crisis.
Most people thought the 2025 Canadian federal election would be a referendum on housing and the "Trudeau fatigue" that had been building for a decade. Then the tariffs hit. Then the annexation talk started. If you've been following the news, you know that Trump on the Canadian election isn't just a footnote—it’s the reason the political map of Canada looks the way it does today.
Why the "51st State" Talk Actually Changed Your Vote
When Trump posted that Canada should become a U.S. state to get "zero tariffs," he probably thought he was making a pitch. To many Canadians, it felt like an existential threat. This wasn't just campaign trail bluster. By late April, the U.S. had already slapped economy-wide tariffs on steel, aluminum, and autos.
The strategy was pretty clear: squeeze the Canadian economy until the voters felt they had no choice but to "align." But it backfired in a way that political scientists are still trying to map out. Instead of breaking the Canadian spirit, it triggered a wave of nationalism that hadn't been seen in decades.
- The Liberal Pivot: Justin Trudeau’s resignation in early 2025 was the first domino.
- The Carney Factor: Mark Carney, the former "Rockstar" Central Banker, stepped in just as the trade war heated up.
- The Sovereignty Surge: Suddenly, the election wasn't about the carbon tax anymore. It was about whether Canada would remain a country.
Basically, the threat of being absorbed by the U.S. made people who were previously annoyed with the Liberals suddenly see them as the "safe" choice to handle a volatile neighbor.
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The Pierre Poilievre Predicament
Pierre Poilievre was supposed to win in a landslide. In early 2025, some polls had the Conservatives ahead by 20 points. He had the "common sense" message locked down. But Trump’s intervention put him in a brutal spot.
Liberal attack ads were relentless. They painted Poilievre as "Trump-lite," suggesting that his populist style meant he wouldn't stand up to the White House. Poilievre tried to pivot. He told Trump to "stay out of our election" and insisted that only Canadians decide Canada’s future. But for a lot of moderate voters in Ontario and Quebec, the risk felt too high. They worried a Conservative government might be too conciliatory—or worse, that Trump would see Poilievre as a "pushover."
It’s kinda wild to think about, but the very movement that helped Poilievre rise—populism—became his biggest liability when it crossed the border.
The Economic War of 2025
You can't talk about Trump on the Canadian election without talking about the math. The Trump administration’s 25% tariffs on Canadian-made autos weren't just a policy; they were a hostage situation for the Ontario manufacturing belt.
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The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA, or CUSMA in Canada) was supposed to protect this. Trump called the deal "irrelevant" by early 2026. During the 2025 campaign, this uncertainty created a "Trump Premium" on everything. Groceries got more expensive because of supply chain jitters. The loonie took a hit.
Mark Carney played his hand carefully. He leaned into his reputation for "economic competence." He told voters he would negotiate "as a sovereign country, not as what Trump pretends we are." That line resonated. It shifted the narrative from "the economy is bad" to "who can protect the economy from the guy next door?"
Quebec: The Most Surprising Shift
The most fascinating part of the 2025 election was Quebec. For years, the Bloc Québécois had been gaining ground by focusing on provincial sovereignty. But when Trump started talking about an "artificially drawn line" at the border, Quebecers got nervous.
One voter in Laval famously told a reporter: "Quebec cannot become a sovereign nation if Canada is not a sovereign nation." This sentiment gutted the Bloc’s support. The Liberals ended up sweeping 54 seats in the province. It turns out, when an external power threatens the whole "house," the people living in the different rooms start looking for the strongest lock on the front door.
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What Most People Get Wrong About the Results
A lot of international observers think Canadians just "love" the Liberals. That’s not it. If you look at the data from the April 28 vote, the Conservatives actually held onto a huge chunk of their base—around 38%.
The reason the Liberals won a majority wasn't because the Conservatives collapsed. It was because the NDP and the Bloc collapsed into the Liberal camp. It was strategic voting on a massive scale. People were scared. Trump’s comments on the Canadian election essentially forced a "national unity" vote that wouldn't have happened otherwise.
Where We Are Now in 2026
So, what really happened after the dust settled? Mark Carney is now Prime Minister, and he’s been spending half his time in Beijing and the other half in Qatar, trying to "de-risk" the Canadian economy from the U.S.
Trump hasn't stopped the "51st state" talk, but it has cooled slightly. He even invited Carney to join a peace board for Gaza recently, showing that the relationship is—as always—complicated and transactional.
Actionable Insights for Navigating This New Reality:
- Diversify Your Portfolio: If you’re a business owner, the 2025 election proved that being 100% dependent on U.S. exports is a gamble. Look toward the Indo-Pacific or EU markets.
- Watch the CUSMA Review: 2026 is a massive year for trade. The formal review of the trade pact is coming up, and Trump has already signaled he wants to upend it.
- Follow the "Middle Power" Strategy: Canada is increasingly acting like a middle power that can't rely on its best friend anymore. Expect more independent foreign policy moves from Ottawa.
The 2025 election wasn't just about who got more seats; it was the moment Canada realized its relationship with the U.S. had fundamentally changed. It’s no longer just "business as usual." It’s a constant negotiation for survival.