Wait, did it actually work? That's the question everyone is asking this week as the White House officially greenlit "Phase Two" of the Gaza ceasefire. It's been a wild ride since October, and honestly, the situation on the ground in early 2026 looks nothing like the stalemate we saw for two years.
Steve Witkoff, the president’s special envoy, hopped on X (formerly Twitter) on Wednesday to drop the news. The Trump Gaza ceasefire progress has hit a massive milestone. We’re moving from a simple "stop shooting" phase into what the administration calls "demilitarization, technocratic governance, and reconstruction."
It sounds fancy. But what does it actually mean for people in Gaza and Israel?
The "Phase Two" Reality Check
Basically, the ceasefire that took effect back in October 2025 has held up better than most skeptics predicted. Not perfectly, though. About 450 Palestinians have been killed since the "peace" started, mostly in skirmishes or by Israeli troops still holding about half the territory.
But the White House is pushing forward anyway.
The big news is the creation of the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG). This is a group of 15 "technocrats"—basically engineers and experts, not politicians—who are supposed to run the day-to-day life of the Strip. They’ll be led by Ali Shaath, a former deputy minister who’s basically been living in the West Bank.
✨ Don't miss: The CIA Stars on the Wall: What the Memorial Really Represents
Trump is also setting up what he calls the "Board of Peace." It's classic Trump branding. He’s going to chair it himself. The board will supervise the NCAG and oversee the massive $50 billion reconstruction effort the UN says is needed. He’s already tapped some heavy hitters like Tony Blair, Jared Kushner, and Marco Rubio for the team.
They’ve got their work cut out for them. The rubble alone will take seven years to clear.
The Disarmament Elephant in the Room
Here’s the thing: Hamas hasn’t actually agreed to give up its guns yet.
Trump issued a pretty blunt ultimatum on Truth Social on Thursday night. He told Hamas they could do this "the easy way or the hard way." He wants a full surrender of weapons and the dismantling of every single tunnel.
To make it more "business-friendly," the U.S. is even talking about a weapon buy-back program. Imagine turning in an AK-47 for cash to buy groceries. It sounds wild, but that’s the level of unconventional thinking being applied here.
🔗 Read more: Passive Resistance Explained: Why It Is Way More Than Just Standing Still
Hamas spokesperson Hazem Qassem called the announcement "positive" and said they’re ready to hand over the administration of Gaza. But the military wing? That’s a whole different story. They haven't shown any real signs of packing up their rocket launchers.
Meanwhile, the Israeli side is getting impatient.
Prime Minister Netanyahu is playing it cool, calling the new committee a "declarative move." He’s basically saying he’ll believe it when he sees it. Israel still holds more than half of Gaza, and they aren’t moving an inch until the remains of the final hostage, Ran Gvili, are returned.
Why This Progress is Fragile
You’ve got to look at the leverage.
The Trump administration is using the promise of reconstruction money as a carrot. But the stick is very real. Witkoff warned of "serious consequences" if the final hostage isn't returned immediately. Some Israeli officials are already whispering about a "Gaza City operation" this spring if the disarmament stalls.
💡 You might also like: What Really Happened With the Women's Orchestra of Auschwitz
- The Funding Gap: The UN says we need $50 billion. So far, the world hasn't exactly opened its checkbooks.
- The Security Force: There’s supposed to be an International Stabilization Force (ISF) to keep the peace. Problem is, nobody has volunteered the soldiers yet.
- The Rafah Crossing: Trump’s 20-point plan requires the crossing to be fully open. Israel is still keeping it mostly shut until they get that last hostage back.
It’s a giant game of chicken.
The U.S. is betting that the people of Gaza are so tired of war that they’ll support this technocratic committee just to get the lights back on and the water running.
What Most People Get Wrong
People think this is just about Gaza. It’s not.
This is part of a much bigger play for "normalization." If Trump can actually stabilize Gaza, the path to a deal with Saudi Arabia opens wide. That’s the real prize. It would reshape the entire Middle East and potentially lead to some version of Palestinian statehood down the line—though the current plan is very vague on what that actually looks like.
For now, the Trump Gaza ceasefire progress rests on the shoulders of 15 Palestinian experts who have to figure out how to provide electricity and sewage to 2 million people while Hamas and the IDF watch their every move.
Real-World Steps to Watch
If you're following this closely, don't just look at the headlines. Watch these specific markers over the next few weeks:
- The "Buy-Back" Launch: See if any actual weapons are handed over in exchange for the promised U.S. cash. This will be the first real test of Hamas's grip on its fighters.
- Board of Peace Meetings: Keep an eye on who actually joins Trump's board. If major Arab leaders like the Saudis join, the plan has real legs.
- The Gvili Return: This is the ultimate "go/no-go" signal for Israel. If his remains are returned, expect a major Israeli withdrawal. If not, the ceasefire could collapse by March.
- Local Services: Watch for the first NCAG projects in southern Gaza. If they can fix a hospital or a power plant without interference, it’s a win.
The progress is real, but it's held together by duct tape and high-stakes diplomacy. Whether it turns into a lasting peace or just a temporary pause depends entirely on who blinks first in February.