You’ve seen the headlines, and honestly, they feel like a loop. Donald Trump enters office, the base cheers, the critics roar, and the pollsters get to work. But as we settle into 2026, the data is telling a story that even the most seasoned political junkies didn't quite see coming. We’re looking at a trump disapproval rating record second term that is remarkably stubborn, yet showing cracks in places we haven't seen before.
Basically, the "honeymoon period" for this second term didn't just end; it arguably never really happened. While Trump started January 2025 with a respectable 47% approval according to Gallup, that number has been on a slow, grinding slide ever since. By late 2025, he hit a low of 36%. If you’re keeping score at home, that's almost identical to the floor he hit during his first term back in 2017.
The Numbers Don't Lie (But They Do Tell a Wild Story)
When you dig into the averages from RealClearPolitics and Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin, the net disapproval is hovering around -12 to -13 points as of mid-January 2026. RealClearPolitics recently pegged him at a 42.1% approval versus a 55.3% disapproval.
Now, why does this matter? Because for years, the narrative was that Trump had a "fixed" floor. No matter what happened, he’d stay at 40%. But we’re seeing something different now. The disapproval isn't just coming from the usual suspects. It’s the Independents.
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- Independents are bolting: In January 2025, 46% of Independents were willing to give him a shot. By December, that plummeted to 25% in some surveys.
- The Partisan Chasm: 91% of Republicans still back him. Only 6% of Democrats do. That 85-point gap is basically a canyon at this point.
- The Second-Year Slump: Historically, the second year of a term is when the "real world" catches up to campaign promises.
What’s Driving the Disapproval?
It’s the economy, stupid. Or at least, that’s what the 2026 data suggests. Despite the administration’s insistence on a "Trump economic boom," the AP-NORC poll from January 15, 2026, shows only 37% of Americans actually approve of his economic management.
People are feeling the pinch at the grocery store. High prices and inflation are the primary drivers here. While Trump does okay on immigration and crime—his "bread and butter" issues—those aren't the things keeping people up at night right now. Roughly 66% of Americans say the economy or healthcare is their top concern. Trump’s approval on healthcare? A dismal 32%.
There’s also the foreign policy angle. About 6 in 10 Americans currently disapprove of how he’s handling global affairs. Specifically, 56% of respondents feel he’s "gone too far" in using the military to intervene in other countries. It’s a weird spot for a president who campaigned on an "America First," non-interventionist platform.
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Comparing the Record to Other Two-Termers
If we look back at history, Trump’s numbers are... well, they’re unique. Usually, a president gets a second-term "bump" or at least a period of stability.
- Richard Nixon: Hit 30% disapproval in December of his fifth year.
- Ronald Reagan: Was sitting pretty at 63% approval in late 1985.
- Barack Obama: Stayed around 41% in late 2013.
Trump is currently tracking closer to Nixon’s downward trajectory than Reagan’s "Morning in America" vibes. On Truth Social, the President has claimed his "real" approval is 64%, calling the official polls "rigged." But without evidence, those claims haven't done much to move the needle with the 33% of the electorate that identifies as Independent.
The Midterm Shadow
We’re in an election year. 2026 midterms are looming, and these disapproval ratings are a massive flashing red light for the GOP. Historically, a president’s approval rating is the single best predictor of how many seats his party will lose in the midterms.
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If Trump stays in the high 30s or low 40s, Republicans are looking at a very long night in November. The "Trump disapproval rating record second term" isn't just a stat for the history books; it’s a roadmap for the upcoming campaign season. Democrats are already leaning heavily into the "cost of living" and "military overreach" narratives that seem to be sticking in the polls.
What to Watch Next
Kinda feels like we're in a holding pattern, doesn't it? But there are a few things that could actually shift these numbers before the summer.
First, keep an eye on the inflation data. If the "short-term pain for long-term gain" strategy on tariffs actually starts to lower prices at the pump or the checkout line, you’ll see that 37% economic approval move.
Second, look at the youth and Latino vote. These were the groups that helped propel him to victory in 2024, but Cook Political Report is showing "eroding confidence" among these key demographics. If they continue to sour on the administration’s policies, the disapproval record could hit new heights by mid-2026.
Actionable Insights for Following the Data:
- Check the Aggregators: Don’t just look at one poll. RealClearPolitics and FiftyPlusOne offer a broader view that smooths out the "outlier" polls.
- Focus on the "Net": The gap between approval and disapproval is more telling than the raw numbers. A -13 spread is much harder to recover from than a -5 spread.
- Watch the Independents: They are the "canary in the coal mine." If they don't start trending back toward the 30s or 40s for Trump, the GOP is in trouble.
- Ignore the "Truths": Presidential posts claiming 60%+ approval are almost always based on internal or non-scientific data. Stick to the non-partisan outlets like AP-NORC or Gallup for the real story.