Politics moves fast. One minute you're the hero of the retirement set, and the next, the polls look like a leak in a dam. Honestly, the trump baby boomers approval rating has been a bit of a roller coaster lately. If you look at the 2024 election results, Donald Trump basically lived and breathed on the support of the 50-plus crowd. They showed up. They voted. They handed him the keys to the White House for a second time. According to AP VoteCast data from that cycle, Trump carried voters aged 50 to 64 with a solid 56%. Even among the 65-and-older crowd, he was neck-and-neck with Harris at 49%.
But 2025 and early 2026 have told a different story. It’s kinda complicated.
What’s Happening With the Trump Baby Boomers Approval Rating?
By late 2025, the honeymoon phase for the second term hit a wall. Hard. According to a Harvard CAPS/Harris poll from October 2025, Trump’s net approval among voters 65 and older took an eight-point dive in just a few months. We’re talking about a group that historically serves as the bedrock of his base. In September 2025, he was sitting at a 43% approval rating with 56% disapproval in that specific bracket. That’s a -13% net rating.
Why does this matter? Because Boomers are the most reliable voters in the country. They don't just stay home. If they aren't happy, the entire GOP structure starts to feel the heat.
The shift isn't just one poll, either. YouGov and the Economist tracked a similar slide. By November 2025, their data showed Trump’s approval among Boomers had slipped to 42%, while disapproval climbed to 57%. This is a massive swing from the 51% support he enjoyed on Election Day in 2024. When your "ride or die" demographic starts looking for the exit, you've got a problem.
The Economy and the Shutdown Factor
You've probably heard it a thousand times: "It's the economy, stupid." For Boomers, that isn't just a slogan; it's about their 401(k)s and the price of eggs. During the 2024 campaign, pocketbook issues were the primary driver. They trusted Trump more on inflation and retirement security.
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However, the federal government shutdown in late 2025 changed the vibe. When the gears of government grind to a halt, it’s often the older generations—who rely on stable services and social safety nets—that get the most nervous. This friction, combined with a dip in overall job approval to 36% in December 2025 according to Gallup, has created a "vibe shift" that isn't working in the administration's favor.
Why the Support Is So "Sticky" Despite the Slump
It isn't all bad news for the Mar-a-Lago set. Even when the numbers dip, Trump still holds more water with older voters than with Gen Z or Millennials. Pew Research noted in August 2025 that 44% of those 50 and older still approved of his performance, compared to a measly 33% for those under 50.
There’s a cultural connection here that polls often miss. Professor Lucas Walsh from Monash University pointed out something interesting to Newsweek: Boomers remember the Cold War. They have a different perspective on foreign policy and national strength. For many in this generation, Trump’s "strongman" approach to trade and international relations resonates with a worldview formed during the 20th century.
- Reliability: Boomers are more likely to approve of "promises kept" even if they dislike the delivery.
- Safety: Issues like crime and border security still poll higher with this group.
- Media Habits: Older voters consume more traditional news and talk radio, where Trump’s messaging remains dominant.
Breaking Down the Numbers (The Prose Version)
If we look at the Gallup trend from late 2025, the decline among independents was the real killer. While 84% of Republicans still backed Trump in November, his support among independent Boomers fell through the floor, hitting roughly 25%. You can’t win national elections—or maintain high approval—with those numbers.
Earlier in his second term, specifically January 2025, he started with a high of 47% overall approval. The slide down to 36% by December was fueled largely by the erosion of the middle-aged and senior demographics. In Pennsylvania, a state that essentially decided the 2024 election, Trump won 52% of the 65+ vote. By the end of 2025, local polls in the Rust Belt suggested that lead had evaporated into a statistical tie.
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Nuance: It’s Not a Total Abandonment
We shouldn't get carried away. A "dip" isn't a "divorce." Most experts, including Republican pollster Bob Ward, note that while Boomers might be frustrated, they aren't necessarily running into the arms of the Democratic party.
The 2025 Emerson College Polling results suggest a weird "limbo." Many older voters are dissatisfied with the current administration but remain skeptical of "progressive" alternatives. They are looking for stability. If the economy shows signs of life in early 2026, those trump baby boomers approval rating numbers could easily bounce back. It's a transactional relationship. "What have you done for my grocery bill lately?" is the question of the hour.
What Most People Get Wrong
People think Boomers are a monolith. They aren't. There’s a massive gender gap in this age group. AP VoteCast showed Trump won older men by 14 points in 2024, but he actually lost older women by 4 points to Harris.
When we talk about his "approval" falling, it’s often the "soft" supporters—the women and the moderate independents in the 50-64 range—who are moving the needle. The "MAGA" core of the Boomer generation is still very much intact. They aren't going anywhere.
Looking Toward the 2026 Midterms
As we move deeper into 2026, these approval ratings are the only thing that matters for the upcoming midterm elections. If the GOP wants to keep control of Congress, they need that trump baby boomers approval rating to stabilize.
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Right now, the "generic ballot" for 2026 is tight. Emerson found Democrats with a 44% to 42% lead over Republicans. For Trump, the goal is simple: win back the 50-plus crowd by focusing on Social Security protections and inflation control. If he can't, the midterms could be a bloodbath for his party.
Actionable Insights for Following the Polls
If you’re trying to track where this is going, don't just look at the "Topline" number. That 36% or 40% tells you almost nothing. You’ve gotta dig into the cross-tabs.
- Watch the "Strongly Disapprove" vs. "Somewhat Disapprove" segments. If Boomers move from "somewhat" to "strongly," they are gone for good. If they stay in the "somewhat" category, they can be won back with a few good economic reports.
- Monitor the "Shut Down" sentiment. Now that the 2025 shutdown is in the rearview, see if the ratings rebound. Older voters hate chaos more than they hate specific policies.
- Check the 50-64 bracket specifically. This group is often more volatile than the 65+ group because they are still in the workforce and more exposed to immediate economic shifts.
The reality is that Donald Trump's political life has always been a game of inches with the oldest voters in the room. They brought him back to power, and right now, they are the ones holding him accountable. Whether this is a temporary dip or a permanent shift is the biggest question in American politics today.
Stay focused on the data from Gallup and Pew, as they tend to provide the most rigorous demographic breakdowns. Don't let a single "outlier" poll on social media convince you the world has changed overnight. It’s a slow burn, and 2026 is going to be the ultimate test of this relationship.