If you’ve been watching the news lately, you probably think the country is completely split down the middle. Honestly, you're not wrong, but the numbers tell a much more chaotic story than just "red vs. blue." Looking at the trump approval rating trend 2025, it’s been a wild ride of "honeymoon" peaks and some pretty deep valleys.
When Donald Trump took the oath for the second time in January 2025, he actually started on relatively solid ground. Emerson College had him at a 49% approval rating right out of the gate. That's a massive jump from where he ended his first term. People were hopeful, or at least curious. But as any political junkie knows, Washington has a way of chewing up those numbers and spitting them out.
The Numbers Game: Trump Approval Rating Trend 2025
By the time we hit the end of 2025, that early optimism had mostly evaporated. Gallup and the AP-NORC started tracking a steady slide. We saw his approval dip into the mid-30s by November and December. It’s kinda fascinating how quickly a "mandate" can feel like a memory.
The trend wasn't just a slow leak; it was more like a series of reactions to very specific events. Early on, his focus on the border and immigration actually kept his numbers buoyant. Quinnipiac found that about 60% of voters actually liked the idea of sending troops to the southern border. That’s a huge number. It gave him a cushion while he was setting up his cabinet and making those big "Day One" moves.
Why the Slide Happened
So, what went south? Basically, it was the economy. Even though the administration kept talking about a "Trump boom," the average person at the grocery store wasn't feeling it.
- Inflation Frustration: Roughly 61% of Americans disapproved of how he handled the cost of living.
- The Prioritization Gap: Voters wanted him to focus on prices, but they felt he was too busy with immigration and "Day One" pardons.
- Tariff Trouble: Even among Republicans, about 56% started worrying that new tariffs were actually making things more expensive.
It's one thing to talk big on the campaign trail, but once you're the guy in the chair, you own the receipt for every gallon of milk.
The Independent "Cliff"
The real story of the trump approval rating trend 2025 isn't about Democrats or Republicans. Democrats were never going to like him—their approval hovered around 3% to 6% all year. Republicans stayed mostly loyal, though we did see a slight dip from 91% down to about 84% by December.
The real drama was with the Independents.
In January, nearly half of Independents (46%) were willing to give him a shot. By the end of the year? That number crashed to 25%. That is a 21-point drop. You just can't keep a high approval rating when you lose the middle that badly. Navigator Research pointed out that about 14% of Trump voters actually said they regretted their vote by December. That's a "buyer's remorse" stat you don't see every day.
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Demographic Shifts and Surprises
One of the weirdest parts of the year was the youth vote. In February, almost half of voters under 30 approved of the job he was doing. By October, that number cratered to 20%. That’s a 30-point swing in a few months. Young people are notoriously fickle, but that’s more than just a phase.
Specific Policy Hits and Misses
It wasn't just the "vibe" of the country. Specific actions moved the needle.
When he commuted George Santos's sentence, only 16% of the country thought that was a good idea. Even a lot of Republicans were scratching their heads on that one. Then there was the whole "demolishing the East Wing for a $300 million ballroom" rumor that turned out to be a real proposal—61% of people said "absolutely not."
On the flip side, he still holds some ground on crime and foreign trade. His approval on crime (43%) is actually higher than his overall job rating. People still trust his "tough guy" persona, even if they hate what it's doing to their health insurance premiums.
What This Means for 2026
We're now sitting in January 2026, and the "honeymoon" is officially buried. The trend shows a president who is deeply underwater, with a net approval of around -19 according to the latest Economist/YouGov data.
Is it permanent? Probably not. Politics is a pendulum. But if the trump approval rating trend 2025 taught us anything, it’s that the "forgotten man" still cares more about the price of gas than he does about who is getting a presidential pardon.
Actionable Insights for the Year Ahead:
- Watch the CPI: If inflation doesn't actually cool down, expect these numbers to stay in the 30s. The "Trump Boom" narrative needs data to back it up, or voters will continue to tune it out.
- Monitor the "Regret" Factor: Keep an eye on non-MAGA Republicans. If that 17% regret rate grows, the administration will lose its ability to pass meaningful legislation through a nervous Congress.
- Focus on the Middle: For the administration to recover, they have to win back those Independents who jumped ship. That means less focus on "culture war" ballroom projects and more on middle-class tax relief or healthcare costs.
The 2026 midterms are already casting a long shadow. If these numbers don't turn around by summer, we're looking at a very different political landscape.