If you’ve spent any time looking at a trump approval rating chart lately, you know it looks less like a steady climb and more like a rugged mountain range. It’s a jagged mess of spikes and dips that tells the story of a deeply divided country. Honestly, trying to find a "normal" baseline for these numbers is a fool’s errand because, in the world of modern politics, normal doesn't exist anymore.
We’re currently in early 2026, and the data is still coming in hot. As of mid-January 2026, the RealClearPolitics (RCP) average shows Donald Trump with an approval rating hovering around 44.1%, while his disapproval sits at roughly 52.7%. That’s a bit of a recovery from late 2025 when things looked significantly grimmer for the administration. Back in November 2025, Gallup recorded a second-term low of just 36%.
Why the sudden swing? It’s basically a mix of people getting used to the second-term chaos and a slight cooling of the heat from the 2025 government shutdown. But don't let a few percentage points fool you—the floor and the ceiling for these numbers are incredibly tight.
The 2025 Dip and the 2026 "Recovery"
Looking back at the last twelve months of any trump approval rating chart, you'll see a massive crater in the middle of 2025. This wasn't just random noise. The summer and fall of 2025 were brutal for the White House.
In July 2025, Gallup had him at 37%. By November, that number slid to 36%. For context, his all-time low during his first term was 34%—a number hit right after the January 6th Capitol events. To be flirting with those same depths just a year into a second term is, frankly, wild.
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The main culprit? It wasn't just one thing. It was a perfect storm of:
- Economic Dourness: Even though some macro indicators looked okay, people felt the pinch. In August 2025, only 37% of Americans approved of his handling of the economy.
- The Shutdown: The 2025 government shutdown lasted longer than the 2018-2019 record-breaker. It hammered his support among independents.
- Demographic Shifts: This is the big one. His support among younger voters (under 35) who backed him in 2024 took a massive hit, dropping from over 90% approval at the start of the term to just 69% by late summer.
Breaking Down the Demographic Wall
If you want to understand why the needle barely moves despite major scandals or big policy wins, you have to look at the partisan divide. It’s not just a gap; it’s a canyon.
In late 2025, the gap between Republican and Democratic approval of the president hit 92 points. That ties the all-time record set in October 2020. Republicans were still largely on board—around 84% to 93% depending on the week—while Democrats were essentially at zero. Literally 1% to 3%.
But the real story of any trump approval rating chart is the Independents. They are the only reason the line moves at all. In January 2025, Trump started his second term with 47% approval among independents. By November 2025, that had cratered to 25%.
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Wait, 25%? That’s lower than his first-term low with that group. When independents bail, the aggregate chart takes a nosedive. However, early 2026 data suggests a slight "re-alignment." Some of those independents are drifting back, not necessarily because they love the policy, but because the alternative (the Congressional Democrats) is currently polling even worse. Gallup recently showed Congressional approval at a dismal 14%.
The Specific Issues People Care About
If you look at the sub-charts—the "approval by issue" stuff—the picture gets even more nuanced. Trump actually out-polls his overall job rating on a few specific topics:
- Crime: Usually his strongest suit, sitting around 43%.
- Foreign Affairs: Hovering near 41%, surprisingly stable.
- Immigration: 37% (a big drop from his early 2025 highs).
- The Economy: This is the anchor. At 31% approval in some December 2025 polls, it’s the lowest economic rating of his entire political career.
What Most People Get Wrong About the Numbers
People often look at a trump approval rating chart and think, "He's underwater, he's done." But that ignores the historical context. Trump’s numbers are incredibly inelastic.
Most presidents have a "honeymoon phase" where they start in the 60s and then slowly drift down. Trump never had that. In 2017, he started in the mid-40s. In 2025, he started at 47%. He exists in a very narrow band. He rarely goes above 48% and rarely stays below 35% for long.
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There’s also the "shy voter" or "non-response bias" to consider. Experts like Nate Silver have pointed out for years that traditional polling sometimes struggles to capture the full scope of his support. While the 2025 dip was real—validated by the fact that Democrats flipped several Republican House seats in off-cycle elections—the 2026 bounce shows that his "floor" is made of reinforced concrete.
Actionable Insights: How to Read the 2026 Data
If you’re tracking these numbers to figure out what happens in the 2026 midterms, don't just look at the top-line percentage. That's a rookie mistake. Instead, keep your eyes on these three specific metrics:
1. The "Strongly Disapprove" vs. "Strongly Approve" ratio. In August 2025, Pew found that 47% of Americans "strongly disapproved" of his performance. When that number stays high, it indicates high turnout for the opposition. If it starts to dip, the "enthusiasm gap" narrows.
2. Independent Approval in the Rust Belt.
The national average is a distraction. Keep an eye on state-level charts for Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. In late 2025, Wisconsin independents showed a 40-point preference for Trump when they felt "financially struggling" vs. "living comfortably." The economy isn't just a talking point; it's the literal engine of his chart.
3. The 2024 Voter Retraction.
Navigator Research noted in December 2025 that 14% of people who voted for Trump in 2024 now say they regret their vote. If that number climbs toward 20%, the GOP is in deep trouble for the midterms. If it shrinks back to single digits, the "red wall" is back.
To stay truly informed, don't rely on a single poll. Check the RealClearPolitics (RCP) or FiveThirtyEight aggregates daily. They smooth out the "outlier" polls that might show a random 32% or a 50% that doesn't match the broader trend. We are currently watching to see if the January 2026 "stabilization" is a permanent trend or just a brief pause before the next drop. Look for the next major Gallup release in late February—that will be the real test of whether the administration has truly moved past the 2025 lows.