Honestly, if you’re looking at Trump and Zelensky today, it feels like watching two high-stakes poker players who both think they have the winning hand. One is leaning over the table, shouting that the game is over and everyone should go home. The other is sitting perfectly still, pointing at the fine print on the cards.
It’s January 15, 2026. We’ve had a year of "deal-making" rhetoric since Donald Trump returned to the White House. But the "24-hour peace deal" he promised back on the campaign trail has stretched into 365 days of grueling, behind-the-scenes friction. Yesterday, in an exclusive interview from the Oval Office, Trump finally put a name to the delay. He blamed Volodymyr Zelensky.
"I think Putin is ready to make a deal," Trump told Reuters. "I think Ukraine is less ready."
When asked why the negotiations—led by his special envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner—haven’t crossed the finish line, Trump’s answer was a single word: "Zelensky."
The 10% Problem: Why "Almost Finished" Isn't Finished
Zelensky isn't just being difficult for the sake of it. During his New Year’s Eve address, he dropped a bombshell that explains the current stalemate. He admitted that a peace framework is basically 90% agreed upon between Washington and Kyiv.
But here’s the kicker. "Those 10% contain, in fact, everything," Zelensky warned.
That 10% is the stuff of nightmares for a Ukrainian leader. According to leaked drafts of the "28-point plan" floating around Washington and Brussels, the deal involves massive territorial concessions. We’re talking about Ukraine potentially being forced to recognize Crimea, Luhansk, and the entire Donetsk region as Russian territory.
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Imagine telling a country that has fought for nearly four years—facing hypersonic missile strikes and losing thousands of lives—that they just have to sign away a chunk of their map to make the American president look like a hero. It’s a tough sell.
Actually, it’s more than tough. It’s politically radioactive for Zelensky.
Trump and Zelensky Today: The Davos Showdown
Next week, the eyes of the world shift to the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. Trump has confirmed he’ll be there. Zelensky is expected to attend too.
Trump told reporters yesterday that he’d meet with Zelensky "if he’s there." It sounds casual, almost dismissive, but don't let the tone fool you. This is the big one. This is where the 90% framework either becomes a signed document or a historical footnote.
The Kushner-Witkoff Shadow Diplomacy
While Trump does the public talking, the real "engine room" of the relationship is managed by Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff. There are rumors—reported by Bloomberg and others—that these two might even be planning a trip to Moscow.
Trump says he "isn't aware" of such a trip. Take that with a grain of salt.
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For Zelensky, dealing with these envoys is a delicate dance. He’s already reshuffled his entire inner circle to handle the "Trump unpredictability." He recently replaced his long-time right-hand man, Andriy Yermak, with Kyrylo Budanov—the former intelligence chief. Why? Because Budanov has a reputation for being a "problem solver" who can navigate the different camps within the Trump administration without losing his cool.
The Money is Drying Up (And Everyone Knows It)
If you want to know why Zelensky is even at the table, just look at the bank account.
The U.S. has basically ended direct, massive military aid. The new National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for 2026 includes a measly $400 million for the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative. To put that in perspective, back in 2024, that number was $14 billion.
- Direct Aid: Virtually gone.
- Intelligence Support: Now subject to 48-hour reporting requirements to Congress if Trump tries to cut it off.
- The "Golden Fleet": Trump is more interested in building new U.S. Navy battleships than sending Bradleys to the Donbas.
Ukraine is pivoting. They’re looking to Europe. The new European Defence Industry Programme has earmarked €300 million to integrate Ukraine into the EU’s defense system. Zelensky is basically trying to build a military powerhouse that can survive without America. But "possibly without America" is a scary phrase when Russia is still launching drones every single night.
What Really Happened Behind Closed Doors?
The relationship between Trump and Zelensky today is haunted by the past. Remember the 2019 phone call? The "I would like you to do us a favor, though" line?
In a recent meeting at Mar-a-Lago, that call actually came up. It’s the elephant in the room that never leaves. Trump still views Ukraine through the lens of those old grievances—the "Crowdstrike server," the Biden investigations. Zelensky, meanwhile, views Trump as a man who might trade away Ukrainian sovereignty for a "win" he can post on social media.
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Zelensky’s approval ratings at home have taken a hit. People are exhausted. There are power cuts, air raids, and a general sense that the "victory" promised in 2023 isn't coming.
Real-World Impact: The Human Cost
While the two leaders bicker over "points" and "frameworks," the reality on the ground is grim. The UN just asked for $2.3 billion for humanitarian aid in 2026. They need to reach 4 million people who are literally living in the ruins of the front lines.
If Trump forces a ceasefire now, Russia gets to keep what it took by force. If Zelensky refuses to sign, he risks a total cutoff of what little U.S. support remains.
It’s a "nightmare meeting" every time the diplomats sit down.
Actionable Insights: What to Watch Next
If you’re trying to keep track of where this is going, stop looking at the tweets and start looking at these three things:
- The Davos Schedule: If Trump and Zelensky have a formal bilateral meeting next week, expect a joint statement that uses the word "framework" heavily. If they don't meet, the deal is dead for the spring.
- The "Spider Web" Operations: Watch for more Ukrainian drone strikes deep inside Russia. Zelensky is using these to prove to Trump that Ukraine is still a "security partner" worth having, not just a charity case.
- Congressional Reporting: Under the new NDAA, keep an eye on whether the Pentagon reports any "pauses" in intelligence sharing. That’s the first sign Trump is turning the screws on Kyiv.
The bottom line? Trump wants the war over because it’s "expensive" and "messy." Zelensky wants it over because his country is bleeding out. They both want the same thing, but they have completely different definitions of what "ending" looks like.
Keep an eye on the Witkoff-Kushner travel logs. If they land in Moscow, the 90% deal is about to be forced down someone's throat.
Next Steps for Staying Informed:
Monitor the official White House press gallery for "Operation Absolute Resolve" updates, as this is the branding the administration is using for its mediation efforts. Also, follow the Ukrainian World Congress updates on the "Davos format" results, which will be the first clear indicator of whether Zelensky has successfully negotiated security guarantees to replace the lost territory.