It is only mid-January, but the Pacific has already decided to wake up. Most people think hurricane and typhoon seasons are rigid dates on a calendar. They aren't. Nature doesn't care about our spreadsheets. Right now, we are looking at Tropical Storm Nokaen (locally known in the Philippines as Ada), and it’s a perfect example of why "off-season" is a bit of a myth in the Western Pacific.
Honestly, the January 15 update on Tropical Storm Nokaen is a wake-up call for anyone living in the Visayas or Surigao del Norte. The storm is currently churning with 10-minute sustained winds of 65 km/h (about 40 mph). It's not a monster—not yet—but it’s the first named storm of 2026. That matters.
The January Surprise: Tropical Storm Nokaen Update
Weather junkies will remember that we haven't seen a named storm this early since Pabuk back in 2019. Nokaen formed from a depression south of Palau on January 13 and has been steadily gaining organization. As of today, the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has officially graduated it to tropical storm status.
The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has it designated as 01W. It is currently located at roughly 9.3N 129.7E. It’s moving northwest at a somewhat sluggish 10 kph. Slow storms are dangerous. They sit. They dump rain. They don't leave when you want them to.
Why Nokaen is a Unique Threat
PAGASA, the Philippine weather bureau, has already hoisted Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal No. 1 over several areas, including:
- Siargao Island and the Dinagat Islands.
- The eastern portions of Leyte and Southern Leyte.
- Parts of Eastern Samar and Northern Samar.
If you’re in these areas, you’ve probably noticed the sky getting that heavy, bruised look. The wind isn't the main story here. It's the rain. Because the system is moving slowly, the risk of flash flooding and landslides in steep terrain is high.
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Beyond the Pacific: A Global Check-in
While the Atlantic is dead quiet—the National Hurricane Center won't even start regular outlooks until May 15—the Southern Hemisphere is in the thick of it.
Across the Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Dudzai is also being monitored. It’s a much more powerful system than Nokaen, with winds screaming at 110 mph. Luckily, it’s mostly a "fish storm," spinning out over open water at 17.1S 74.3E. Then there's Tropical Cyclone Luana (14S), which intensified near Diego Garcia recently.
It’s a tale of two hemispheres.
- Northern Hemisphere: Mostly dormant, except for Nokaen's sudden appearance.
- Southern Hemisphere: Peak season, with multiple systems (Dudzai, Luana, and recently Koji) threatening coastal Australia and the Indian Ocean islands.
What Most People Get Wrong About Tropical Storms
People see "Tropical Storm" and think, "Oh, it's not a Typhoon, I'm fine." That's a mistake that costs lives.
A tropical storm can still drop 10 inches of rain in 24 hours. In places like the Philippines or the Queensland coast, that much water turns small creeks into raging rivers. Nokaen is currently sitting in an environment with warm sea surface temperatures and low vertical wind shear. Basically, the "fuel" for the storm is there.
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Wait. Why is this happening in January?
We are currently transitioning out of a weak La Niña. According to NOAA’s latest ENSO forecast, we are heading toward "neutral" conditions by mid-year. La Niña years often see more frequent early-season activity in the Western Pacific because the waters stay warmer than average.
Preparation Steps You Need to Take Now
If you are in the path of Nokaen or any tropical system, "waiting to see" is a bad strategy.
Secure your perimeter. Loose tin sheets, garden furniture, or even hanging plants become projectiles in 65 km/h gusts. Walk around your house today. If it can blow away, tie it down or bring it in.
Check your drainage. Most urban flooding during these storms happens because trash or debris blocks the gutters. It’s a boring task, but clearing the drain in front of your house can be the difference between a dry living room and a mess.
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The "Go-Bag" Reality. Don't just pack a bag; pack the right things. You need your documents (ID, insurance, land titles) in a waterproof plastic sleeve. Power banks should be at 100% right now. If the grid goes down, your phone is your only link to weather updates.
Looking Ahead: The 2026 Forecast
The 2026 Atlantic season is already being whispered about. Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) released an early prediction suggesting a season close to the 30-year norm—roughly 14 tropical storms and 7 hurricanes.
But for today, the focus stays on the Pacific. Nokaen isn't going to be a record-breaker in terms of wind, but as the first storm of the year, it’s a reminder that the "season" is just a suggestion.
Actionable Next Steps:
- Monitor PAGASA or JMA every six hours for track shifts.
- Stock up on 3 days of water; tropical storms often compromise local pumping stations due to power outages.
- Identify your nearest evacuation center if you live in a landslide-prone area or near a riverbank.