It was late 2021. If you walked into a card show, the air felt different. Collectors were basically tripping over themselves to pay $500 for a Trey Lance Panini Prizm Silver raw. He hadn't even started a full season yet, but the "mystery box" hype was at a fever pitch. People were calling him the next Josh Allen.
Then, reality hit. Hard.
Now it's early 2026. Lance just finished a stint with the Los Angeles Chargers as Justin Herbert's backup. He made a Week 18 start against the Denver Broncos—his first in years—and it was... complicated. He ran for 69 yards but completed less than half his passes and threw a pick-six. It was a classic Lance performance: flashes of elite athleticism buried under a mountain of rust.
If you’re holding a Trey Lance rookie card today, you’ve likely seen your portfolio "bleed out" for three straight years. But honestly? The market is finally entering a phase where the "get rich quick" flippers are gone, and the actual collectors are looking at what’s left.
The Brutal Math of the 2026 Market
Let's look at the numbers. They aren't pretty, but they're real. Back in his rookie year, a 2021 Panini Prizm #333 PSA 10 could easily fetch $400 or more. Today? You can pick those up for about $30 to $35. Sometimes less if you catch an auction on a Tuesday night.
The drop isn't just because he isn't starting. It's because the supply finally caught up with the demand. During the "junk slab" era of 2021-2022, thousands of these were sent to PSA. There are now over 3,000 PSA 10 base Prizms out there. When you have that much supply and the player is a backup, the price only goes one way.
Where the High-End Market Stands
Even with the career struggles, the truly rare stuff still holds some weird, residual value.
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- National Treasures RPA (Rookie Patch Auto): The "True" RPA out of /99 still commands respect. While they used to be five-figure cards, recent 2025/2026 sales for PSA 9s have hovered around the $2,000 mark.
- The 1/1 Grails: His 2021 Panini Flawless Platinum NFL Shield once sold for $132,000. In today’s market? It’s hard to say, but nobody is expecting six figures again unless he somehow pulls a Geno Smith-style late-career resurgence.
- Color Blast: The 2021 Prizm Color Blast is still one of the most beautiful cards ever made. Collectors love the art more than the player sometimes. These still move for $1,000+ ungraded because the "set collectors" need them to finish their runs.
Why People Still Buy Lance Cards
You might think buying a Trey Lance card in 2026 is like lighting money on fire. Maybe. But there’s a specific type of buyer still active here.
Most of them are gambling on a "change of scenery." He’s a free agent heading into the 2026 season. He's only 25 years old. In NFL years, that's still a baby for a quarterback. He’s younger than some of the guys coming out in the 2025 and 2026 drafts due to the extra years of eligibility.
There is a segment of the hobby that believes Jim Harbaugh’s coaching in LA actually fixed some of his mechanics. If he signs with a team like the Giants, Titans, or even a desperate Raiders squad as a bridge starter, those $30 Prizm 10s will jump to $60 overnight. It’s a low-stakes gamble.
What Most People Get Wrong About the "Bust" Label
Everyone calls him a bust. Technically, for a #3 overall pick that cost three first-rounders, he is. But in the card world, "bust" doesn't mean "zero."
The mistake most people make is treating him like he’s Ryan Leaf or JaMarcus Russell. Those guys didn’t have the "dual-threat" potential that keeps fantasy managers and card collectors curious. As long as Lance can run for 60 yards in a game, people will keep him on their "watch list."
Honestly, the biggest threat to the Trey Lance rookie card isn't his play—it's the sheer volume of 2021 products. Panini printed the 2021 class into oblivion. Mosaic, Donruss, Optic, Select, Prizm, Zenith, Phoenix... the list is endless.
If you're going to buy, you have to be picky.
The "Smart" Buy (If There Is One)
If you're dead set on owning a piece of the Trey Lance story, stop buying base cards. Seriously. Stop.
Look for the Donruss Optic Rated Rookie Holos or the Select Field Level parallels. These have a much lower "Pop Report" at PSA. If he ever does have a "moment" in 2026, the scarcity of a Field Level Silver will outperform a base Prizm every single time.
I’ve also seen some interest in his North Dakota State cards lately. Some collectors are pivoting to the collegiate stuff because it represents the "peak" of his potential before the NFL injuries and depth chart drama. The 2021 Prizm Draft Picks Autographs in the Green Pulsar or Gold parallels are still stunning cards that hold a niche value among NDSU alumni.
Real Talk: The Risks
Let’s be blunt. There is a very real chance Trey Lance is out of the league by 2028.
His 2025-2026 stats with the Chargers weren't exactly a "rebirth." He completed 27 of 57 passes for 226 yards on the season. That’s 47.4%. In the modern NFL, you can’t survive with a completion percentage under 50% unless you're rushing for 100 yards a game.
Limitations to keep in mind:
- Contract Status: He's an unrestricted free agent. If he signs a league-minimum deal to be a QB3 somewhere, his cards will hit the $1.00 bin.
- The "Purdy" Effect: Part of why Lance's cards crashed so hard was the success of Brock Purdy. The hobby shifted its "Niners QB" money entirely to Purdy, leaving Lance in the dust.
- Condition Sensitivity: A lot of 2021 Prizm had terrible centering. If you're buying "raw" cards on eBay hoping to grade them, you’re likely going to get a PSA 8 or 9.
Actionable Insights for Collectors
If you're looking at your collection and wondering what to do, or if you're looking at eBay and thinking about "buying the dip," here is the play:
If you are holding high-end (RPAs, 1/1s): Wait for the preseason. There is always a "hype cycle" in August when a beat reporter says Lance "looks improved." That is your exit window. Don't wait for the regular season.
If you are looking to buy:
Target On-Card Autographs. Sticker autos are losing value across the board in 2026. If you can find a 2021 Panini Contenders Rookie Ticket (on-card) for under $150, that’s a decent "hold" because it’s a blue-chip brand.
Avoid "Pro Set" or "Leaf" unlicensed stuff: In a down market, unlicensed cards (the ones where the logos are scrubbed off the helmets) are the first to lose all liquidity. Stick to Panini.
The Trey Lance rookie card is a case study in market psychology. It’s a reminder that we don’t buy players; we buy expectations. Right now, expectations are at an all-time low. Whether that's a "buy signal" or a warning sign depends entirely on how much faith you have in a guy who’s still trying to find his footing five years into his career.
Next steps for you: Check the PSA Pop Report for any specific Lance parallel you’re eyeing. If the "Pop 10" count is over 500, move on to something rarer. You want to own the cards that won't be flooded onto the market the second he has one good preseason quarter.