If you’ve spent any time stuck in traffic on the Gardiner or trying to squeeze onto a southbound Yonge subway train at 8:30 AM, you probably don't need a spreadsheet to tell you that Toronto is crowded. It feels packed. But "feeling" busy and the actual data behind what's the population in toronto are starting to tell two very different stories as we move through 2026.
Honestly, for a long time, the trajectory was just a straight line up. More people, more condos, more everything. But things have gotten... weird. Between the federal government’s massive pivot on immigration targets and the eye-watering cost of a two-bedroom basement apartment in Leslieville, the "Big Smoke" isn't growing quite the way it used to.
The Current Count: By the Numbers
Let's look at the hard data first because that’s usually why people search for this. According to the latest Statistics Canada estimates released in January 2026, the population in toronto (the City itself, not the whole region) is sitting around 2.9 to 3 million residents.
If you zoom out to the Census Metropolitan Area (CMA)—which includes places like Mississauga, Brampton, and Vaughan—the number jumps significantly. The Toronto CMA has officially cleared the 7.1 million mark.
But here’s the kicker: for the first time in decades, the growth rate has hit a massive speed bump. In 2025, while cities like Edmonton were seeing 3% growth, Toronto actually saw a slight dip or stagnation depending on which month's data you pull. StatCan recently noted that Toronto and Kamloops were among the few areas to actually see a decrease in the latest quarterly reports.
Why? Basically, people are tapped out.
✨ Don't miss: Why Every Tornado Warning MN Now Live Alert Demands Your Immediate Attention
Breaking down the 2026 Demographics
- The Core City: Roughly 2,980,000 (Estimate)
- The Greater Region (CMA): ~7,108,000
- The "Brain Drain" Factor: Interprovincial migration is at a record high, with young professionals fleeing to Alberta or even the East Coast just to find a backyard they can afford.
Why the Population Explosion Just... Stopped
For years, the narrative was that Toronto was the fastest-growing city in North America. We were beating out Phoenix and Dallas. It was a point of pride for some and a point of "I can't find a parking spot" frustration for everyone else.
But the 2026 landscape is defined by the Immigration Levels Plan. The federal government realized that the infrastructure—hospitals, schools, and especially housing—just couldn't keep up with the 3.5% growth rates we saw back in 2023.
The new targets for 2026 have slashed new temporary resident arrivals by nearly 50%. Since Toronto has historically been the "landing pad" for about a quarter of all newcomers to Canada, this policy change hit the local population clock like a sledgehammer.
The "Invisible" Residents
One thing most people get wrong about what's the population in toronto is ignoring the non-permanent residents (NPRs). These are the international students at U of T or George Brown, and the folks here on work permits.
In late 2024, NPRs made up over 7% of the total population. In 2026, that’s shrinking. The "Mark Carney government" (as the political shifts of the last year have played out) has been under immense pressure to stabilize these numbers. When you talk about the population today, you aren't just talking about people with Canadian passports; you're talking about a massive, floating population of students and workers who are now finding it much harder to stay.
🔗 Read more: Brian Walshe Trial Date: What Really Happened with the Verdict
Where is Everyone Going?
If they aren't in Toronto, where are they? Honestly, the 2021 Census started a trend that has only accelerated: the "Exodus to the 905" and beyond.
People are moving to places like Oshawa (which grew by nearly 2% this year) or Kitchener-Waterloo. The 2026 data shows that while the City of Toronto struggles to grow, the "secondary cities" are booming. It’s a classic case of the "donut effect"—the center stays the same (or shrinks), while the outer ring gets thicker.
Real-world impact of the 2026 numbers:
- Renters' Relief (Sorta): With fewer newcomers, the insane 10% annual rent hikes have cooled to about 3%. It’s still expensive, but it's not "sell a kidney" expensive anymore.
- Transit Woes: Even with a stagnant population, the TTC is still catching up. The population might not be growing, but the density is shifting toward areas that don't have subways yet.
- Labour Shakes: Some sectors, like hospitality and retail, are actually feeling the pinch because that "endless" supply of new arrivals has been throttled by the 2026 immigration caps.
The 2026 Census: What to Expect
We are currently in a Census year. Every five years, Statistics Canada does the "Big Count," and 2026 is the one that will officially settle the debates. The May 2026 Census is using updated questions on gender identity, remote work habits, and—crucially—homelessness to get a better picture of who is actually living here.
Previous counts often missed people living in "illegal" basement suites or rooming houses. The 2026 methodology is trying to fix that, so don't be surprised if the "official" number suddenly jumps—not because more people moved here, but because we finally counted the ones who were already hiding in the shadows of the housing crisis.
Actionable Takeaways for Residents and Investors
If you're looking at these numbers and wondering what to do, here’s the deal:
💡 You might also like: How Old is CHRR? What People Get Wrong About the Ohio State Research Giant
For Renters: The 2026 slowdown is your best friend. The leverage has shifted slightly. If you're in a condo owned by an investor, they’re seeing higher vacancy rates in the downtown core than they have in a decade. Negotiate.
For Business Owners: The "unlimited labour" era is over. With the population growth stalling and immigration targets capped, you’ll need to focus more on retention. The days of replacing a worker in 24 hours are fading as the population ages and the influx of young workers slows down.
For Homebuyers: Watch the "donut." The City of Toronto is becoming a playground for the ultra-wealthy and a holding pen for students. If you want growth in equity, the 2026 data suggests looking at the "Growth Nodes" identified in the provincial planning statements—places like Milton or East Gwillimbury that are still absorbing the spillover.
The population in toronto isn't just a number; it’s a reflection of whether the city is actually livable. Right now, in 2026, Toronto is catching its breath. Whether that leads to a more affordable city or just a stagnant one remains to be seen, but for now, the "fastest growing" title has officially been passed to someone else.
Check the latest Statistics Canada "Real-time population clock" if you want to see the numbers tick up (or down) in real-time. It’s a wild ride.