The vibe in Toronto right now is... weird. It’s that familiar mix of cautious optimism and the absolute dread of another first-round exit, but this year feels different because the roster actually is different. We aren't just talking about the same "Core Four" anymore. With Mitch Marner out of the picture—yeah, seeing him in a Vegas Golden Knights jersey still feels like a fever dream—the Toronto Maple Leafs predictions for the rest of the 2026 season have shifted from "can they score enough?" to "can this new identity actually win in May?"
Honestly, the math is starting to look okay. As of mid-January 2026, the Leafs are sitting at 23-15-7. That’s 53 points, good for fourth or fifth in a crowded Atlantic Division depending on the night. They just came off a massive 8-0-2 run that essentially saved their season after a shaky November. If you watched that 5-0 dismantling of Vancouver or the way they snapped Colorado's 17-game home winning streak last week, you saw a Craig Berube team. They aren't just circling the perimeter anymore; they’re actually hitting people.
Why the Toronto Maple Leafs predictions for 2026 hinge on the blueline
Brad Treliving is a busy man this month. The biggest open secret in the NHL right now is that Toronto is hunting for a right-shot defenseman like a caffeinated bloodhound. Morgan Rielly has had a massive "up and down" year, and while he’s still the heartbeat of that D-core, the pairing experiments have been... let's call them "adventurous."
The rumors are swirling around a potential third stint for Luke Schenn. It sounds like a movie sequel nobody asked for but everyone secretly wants. Jonas Siegel from The Athletic has been banging this drum, and it makes sense. Schenn provides that cheap, veteran stability that lets Rielly actually play his game. There’s also the Dougie Hamilton noise, though that feels like a long shot given the cap gymnastics required.
But here is the reality: if they don’t add a Top-4 guy before the March deadline, any prediction of a deep run is basically fan fiction. The current "cluster" of depth guys—think Henry Thrun and Dakota Mermis—just won't cut it against the heavy hitters in the East.
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The Auston Matthews factor and the scoring race
Auston Matthews is currently sitting on 22 goals through 39 games. For a guy who flirted with 70 a couple of years back, some people are calling this a "down" year. Those people aren't watching the games. He’s playing a much more complete, 200-foot game under Berube, often sacrificing individual stats to lock down the middle of the ice.
Plus, he recently passed Mats Sundin as the franchise’s all-time leading goal scorer. That’s legendary stuff.
Predictions for his final 2025-26 stat line:
- 45 goals (he’ll heat up in February, he always does).
- 85 total points.
- A legitimate Selke trophy conversation.
William Nylander is actually leading the team in scoring right now with 41 points in 33 games. He’s been the most consistent offensive threat by a mile. Then you have the "new" guys like Matias Maccelli and Nicolas Roy. Maccelli started slow but has 15 points in 30 games and is finally starting to click on that top line.
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Goaltending: The Joseph Woll era is (finally) here
Is Joseph Woll the answer? Maybe. He looked like a brick wall in the 4-1 win over the Panthers recently, stopping 31 shots and looking incredibly calm. But the injury history is always the elephant in the room. The Leafs’ goaltending depth took a step forward recently, but they are still one groin tweak away from a crisis.
If Woll stays healthy, the Leafs are a 100-point team. If he doesn’t, Treliving might have to trade one of the "shouldn't be trade bait" players just to find a starter.
Toronto Maple Leafs predictions for the 2026 playoffs
Let’s be real. The regular season is just a 82-game dress rehearsal in this city. Based on the current trajectory, the Leafs are likely looking at a first-round matchup against either the Red Wings or the Lightning.
Detroit is surprisingly legit this year, sitting atop the Atlantic with 60 points. A Leafs-Wings series would be absolute chaos for the ratings, but a nightmare for our collective blood pressure.
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Here is the bold prediction: The Leafs finish 3rd in the Atlantic. They pull off a deadline trade for a veteran defenseman (likely Schenn or a similar "grit" guy) and potentially a depth forward like Brayden Schenn to reunite the brothers. They win a round. Yes, I said it. They win a round because the Berube system is built for the playoffs, not the highlight reels.
Actionable Insights for the Next Few Weeks
If you’re tracking this team for betting or just for your own sanity, watch these three things:
- The Power Play Percentage: It’s been streaky. If it doesn’t stabilize above 22%, they won't outscore their defensive lapses.
- The Trade Market: Watch the waiver wire and the "healthy scratch" lists for teams like St. Louis or Nashville. That’s where the Leafs will find their depth.
- Easton Cowan's Minutes: The kid has 11 points in 30 games. If Berube starts trusting him in the top six, it changes the entire offensive dynamic.
Keep an eye on the January road trip. Games against Utah and Vegas will tell us everything we need to know about whether this 8-0-2 run was a fluke or a foundation. The trade deadline is coming fast, and for the first time in a long time, the Leafs look like they know exactly what they’re missing.