The Toronto skyline usually looks like a playground for cranes and capital, but the vibe on the ground this September is... different. Kinda weird, honestly. If you’ve been scrolling through headlines, you’ve probably seen some noise about a "fall rebound."
Is it actually happening? Sorta. But not in the way the big bank economists predicted back in January.
Toronto housing news today September 2025 is dominated by a strange tug-of-war. On one side, the Bank of Canada just handed everyone a 25-basis-point gift by dropping the overnight rate to 2.5% on September 17. On the other side, a massive wave of inventory is crashing into the market, giving buyers more power than they’ve had in a decade.
The Numbers Nobody is Bragging About
Let’s get real about the prices. If you’re a seller, look away. The benchmark home price across the GTA has slid to $960,300. That’s a 5.5% drop compared to last September.
The average price for all home types is hovering around $1,059,377. Sure, that’s a tiny 0.2% nudge upward from August, but don't let that fool you into thinking the rocket ship is taking off again.
What’s actually selling?
The market is splintered. It’s like three different cities are operating at once.
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- Detached Homes: Sitting at an average of $1.36 million. They’re down about 4.5% year-over-year.
- Semi-Detached: These are the "sweet spot." Even though prices fell nearly 7%, they are the most liquid asset in the 416 right now because people still want dirt but can’t afford a full house.
- Condos: The absolute weakest link. The average price is down to $655,000.
Why are condos struggling? Because the "investor exit" is real. We are seeing a flood of units hit the MLS from owners who can no longer make the math work, even with the recent rate cuts.
The Rate Cut Paradox
Everyone thought lower rates would be the "on" switch. It wasn't.
When Tiff Macklem and the Bank of Canada moved the rate to 2.5%, the logic was that buyers would come screaming back. And they did—for about ten minutes. Sales volume actually jumped 8.5% compared to last year, with 5,592 homes changing hands.
But here’s the kicker: 19,260 new listings hit the market this month.
That is a staggering amount of supply. We are seeing a 37% surge in new listings compared to August. Basically, every seller who was "waiting for the rate cut" decided to list at the exact same time. The result? A buyer's paradise. You’ve got nearly 30,000 active listings to choose from.
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In a "normal" Toronto market, you’d have 14 days to decide on a house. Now? Detached homes are sitting for an average of 25 days. Some condos are languishing for over a month.
Is the Rental Market Finally Breaking?
If you’re a tenant, there is finally some breathing room. For nine straight months, downtown rents have been cooling off.
An unfurnished one-bedroom in the core is now averaging $2,142. That’s a 10.8% drop from last year. It’s wild to think that Etobicoke has actually overtaken downtown in some price-per-square-foot metrics, sitting at $3.76/sq. ft. Landlords are getting desperate. Honestly, if you’re looking for a place, don't just sign the first lease you see. We’re seeing "one month free" and "waived parking fees" coming back into the lexicon. Only about 10% of condos are leasing above the asking price now. The days of the "rental bidding war" are, for the moment, a fever dream of the past.
New Rules in Play
The City of Toronto also threw a wrench into the works this year with the Rental Renovation Licence By-Law. If a landlord wants to evict for renos (the classic "renoviction"), they now have to pay a $700 fee, prove they have permits, and provide a compensation plan for the tenant. It’s making "bad actor" moves a lot more expensive.
The "Tariff Chaos" Factor
You won't hear this in the official TRREB press releases, but there's a lot of anxiety about trade. Experts like David Ball and several mortgage brokers have pointed out that "tariff chaos" and economic uncertainty are weighing on people.
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People are scared for their jobs. Even though the Bank of Canada is trying to "help the economy adjust," the per-capita income in Canada has been flat or falling. That makes a $1 million mortgage feel like a lead weight, regardless of whether the interest rate is 2% or 5%.
Where to Put Your Money (If You Have Any)
If you're looking at Toronto housing news today September 2025 and wondering if you should jump in, here’s the nuanced take.
- The 416 Semi-Detached: This is the safest bet. It has "end-user" demand (families who actually want to live there) and "investor" demand (people who want to turn them into multiplexes).
- The 905 Detached: Be careful here. The suburbs are under the most pressure right now. Inventory is high, and the "commute-to-work" mandates are still hurting demand in far-flung pockets of Halton and Peel.
- The Condo Flip: Forget about it. With so much new supply coming online from projects started four years ago, the "resale" condo market is going to be sideways for a while.
Actionable Steps for the Fall Market
Don't just watch the news—work the market.
- For Buyers: Stop offering "asking price." With 4.7 months of inventory in the City of Toronto, you have the leverage. Ask for an inspection. Ask for a financing condition. The seller might be annoyed, but they probably don't have another offer in their pocket.
- For Sellers: Price it below the "comparables" from three months ago. The market is moving down, not up. If you price at "June prices," you’ll be sitting on the market until Christmas.
- For Renters: Negotiation is back. If a unit has been sitting for more than 15 days, offer $100 less than the list price. You’d be surprised how many landlords will say yes just to avoid another month of carrying costs.
The "big rebound" of 2025 hasn't quite arrived. Instead, we’ve entered a "Great Recalibration." It’s slower, it’s quieter, and for the first time in a long time, the person with the money is the one making the rules.
Next Steps for You: Check your mortgage pre-approval today. With rates at 2.5%, your qualifying power has likely jumped by $50,000 to $80,000 compared to last year. If you're a first-time buyer, look specifically at the townhouse segment in the 416—they saw a 39% surge in sales this month for a reason. They are the new "entry-level" luxury.