It’s been a weird few years for anyone following the Toronto Blue Jays. You remember that 2015-2016 run? The bat flip? The absolute electricity at the Rogers Centre? It felt like the city was the center of the baseball universe. Then came the "New Era" with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette, and honestly, we all expected a trophy by now. Instead, we’ve been treated to a string of Wild Card heartbreaks and a whole lot of "what if" scenarios.
People are getting restless. You can hear it on the radio and see it all over social media. The narrative lately is that this core has peaked and the front office—Ross Atkins and Mark Shapiro—missed their shot.
But baseball is rarely that linear.
The 2024 season was, let’s be real, a bit of a disaster for a long stretch. But looking at the 2025 and 2026 outlook, there is a path back to relevance that doesn't involve blowing the whole thing up. It’s about nuance. It’s about the fact that Vladdy finally looked like the MVP candidate we were promised, and the reality that pitching remains this team's weird, unpredictable backbone.
The Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Factor: More Than Just Hype
For a while, it looked like Vladdy might be one of those guys who has one legendary season (2021) and then just settles into being "pretty good." That's not what happened in 2024. Despite the team struggling, Guerrero Jr. put up numbers that proved he is a foundational superstar. We're talking about a guy who adjusted his approach, stopped chasing the low-and-away junk, and started tattooing the ball again.
His slash line wasn't just good; it was elite. But here’s the problem: he’s entering the final years of team control.
The contract situation is the elephant in the room. If the Jays don't lock him up, the entire franchise trajectory changes. You can’t replace that kind of production in free agency easily, and you definitely can’t replace the brand value. He is the Toronto Blue Jays right now. Every time he steps into the box, there’s that collective breath-holding in the stadium.
The Bo Bichette Conundrum
Then there’s Bo. 2024 was a nightmare for him. Injuries, a dipping batting average, and a lack of that signature "Bo Flow" swagger. Some fans are ready to trade him. They think the return for a shortstop of his caliber—even coming off a down year—could jumpstart a "re-tool."
That feels like a mistake.
💡 You might also like: NFL Pick 'em Predictions: Why You're Probably Overthinking the Divisional Round
Shortstops who can hit for power and average are rare. Even with his defensive lapses, Bichette's ceiling is too high to give up on for a handful of prospects who might never make it past Triple-A Buffalo. The key is whether he can stay healthy. If his calf issues are behind him, a bounce-back year is more likely than a permanent decline.
Pitching: The Rotation is Better Than You Think
Everyone loves to complain about the bullpen. It’s a Toronto tradition, sort of like complaining about the 401. And yeah, the 2024 bullpen was a fire hazard for most of the summer. But the starting rotation? That’s where the hope lives.
Kevin Gausman is still a wizard with that splitter. Jose Berrios is the definition of a workhorse—the guy just eats innings and gives you a chance to win every five days. And Chris Bassitt? He’s basically a mad scientist on the mound with about fifteen different pitches he can throw at any time.
- Kevin Gausman: Still the ace, despite the occasional dip in velocity.
- Jose Berrios: The most consistent arm in the North.
- Chris Bassitt: The veteran presence who keeps hitters guessing.
- Bowden Francis: The massive surprise of late 2024 who might have earned a permanent spot.
The real question mark is the fifth spot and the depth. We saw what happens when the injury bug hits. The drop-off from the front four to the replacement level was steep. To compete in the AL East—where the Yankees and Orioles are just reloading every year—the Jays need a "swingman" who can actually provide quality starts, not just "opener" gimmicks that tax the relievers.
The Renovated Rogers Centre and the Business of Baseball
Let’s talk about the stadium. The renovations were a massive undertaking. Getting rid of the old, sterile multipurpose feel and turning it into a legitimate baseball-first park was a huge win. The "Outfield District" has changed the vibe. It's less about sitting in a plastic seat and more about the social experience.
But fans aren't stupid.
A fancy bar in right field is great when the team is winning. When they’re ten games under .500 in August, it just feels like a shiny distraction. The ownership at Rogers Communications has poured hundreds of millions into the infrastructure. Now, they have to prove they’ll do the same for the payroll. The Shohei Ohtani pursuit of late 2023 showed they have the money. They were willing to spend $700 million.
The fact that Ohtani chose the Dodgers isn't an indictment of Toronto, but it did leave a huge hole in the plan. The front office had a "Plan A" that was Ohtani-sized, and "Plan B" felt like a collection of Band-Aids. To win in 2025 and 2026, they need a new Plan A. That means going after the big fish in free agency—guys like Juan Soto (if he hits the market) or high-end pitching depth.
📖 Related: Why the Marlins Won World Series Titles Twice and Then Disappeared
The AL East is a Meat Grinder
You can't talk about the Blue Jays without talking about their neighbors. It's the toughest division in sports. Period.
The Baltimore Orioles are a juggernaut of young talent. The Yankees have Judge and Soto. The Rays... well, the Rays will always find a way to win 90 games with a $20 payroll and a bunch of guys you've never heard of. For Toronto to even make the playoffs, they have to play essentially .600 baseball against everyone else.
There is no room for "growing pains" anymore. The window isn't just closing because players are getting older; it's closing because the competition is getting younger and faster.
Why the Farm System is a Concern
This is the part that worries the experts at Baseball America and MLB Pipeline. The Jays' farm system has thinned out. Trading away prospects to "win now" is what you're supposed to do when you're a contender, but those trades haven't resulted in a deep playoff run.
Ricky Tiedemann is the crown jewel, but injuries have hampered his development. Beyond him, there aren't many "sure thing" prospects ready to leap into the big leagues and make an immediate impact. This puts immense pressure on the front office to hit on their mid-level free-agent signings—something they’ve struggled with lately (see: the 2024 offensive slump).
What Really Happened with the Offense?
For most of last year, the Jays' offense was painful to watch. They led the league in "runners left on base" at one point, or at least it felt like it. It was a strange mix of bad luck and worse approach. They stopped hitting for power and tried to become a "contact" team, but the contact wasn't driving in runs.
- Mattingly’s Influence: Don Mattingly was brought in to sharpen the hitting, but the results were mixed.
- The Analytics Trap: Some critics argue the Jays have become too reliant on data, losing the "feel" for the game.
- Power Void: Without a consistent threat behind Vladdy, pitchers just walked him or pitched around him.
The late-season surge by some of the younger "Buffalo Boys" like Leo Jimenez and Will Wagner provided a spark. It showed that maybe, just maybe, some fresh blood was exactly what the clubhouse needed. They played with a chip on their shoulder that the veterans seemed to be lacking.
Actionable Insights for the Near Future
If you're a fan looking for a reason to stay optimistic, or a bettor looking at 2025 futures, here is what needs to happen. This isn't just "hope," it's the tactical reality of the Toronto Blue Jays roster.
👉 See also: Why Funny Fantasy Football Names Actually Win Leagues
Lock up Vladimir Guerrero Jr. immediately. The price tag is only going up. A 10-year deal keeps the face of the franchise in Toronto and signals to the rest of the league that the Jays are serious about winning. It also settles the clubhouse.
Fix the bullpen through volume, not just big names. The Jays don't need one superstar closer; they need four guys who can throw 98+ with movement. They need to stop gambling on "reclamation projects" and invest in high-velocity arms that can mask the mistakes of a tired rotation.
Decide on the "Internal Core" vs. "External Additions." If Bo Bichette isn't the long-term answer at short, the team needs to make a decision before his value tanks. Moving him for a high-end starter or a powerful outfielder might be the "uncomfortable" move that saves the franchise.
Prioritize Power over "Platoon Advantage." The experiment with being a high-contact, low-strikeout team didn't work in the AL East. This team needs a 30-homer threat to protect Vladdy in the lineup. Whether that's through a trade or a big free-agent splash, the lineup needs more "boom" and less "bunt."
The Toronto Blue Jays are in a precarious spot, but they are far from irrelevant. They have the stadium, the superstar, and the starting pitching. What they lack is the finishing touch—the aggressive roster management that turns a "good" team into a "dangerous" one. The next 12 months will determine if this era is remembered as a golden age of Toronto baseball or a massive missed opportunity.
Next Steps for the 2025 Season
- Monitor the Winter Meetings: Watch specifically for how the Jays handle the third base and outfield vacancies.
- Track Vladdy’s Extension Talks: This is the barometer for the team's ambition.
- Watch the "Buffalo Boys" in Spring Training: See if the late-2024 momentum from the rookies was a fluke or a foundation.
- Assess the Bullpen Market: Look for the Jays to be active in the secondary market for high-leverage arms.
The path is narrow, but it's there. The Blue Jays just need to stop playing it safe and start playing to win.