Honestly, if you just looked at the headlines from yesterday, you’d think the city was buried for good. Toronto just got hammered. We're talking about a massive system that dumped anywhere from 21 to 53 centimetres across the GTA, depending on if you’re standing in the downtown core or up in Scarborough.
It was a mess.
Flights at Pearson were a disaster, the OHL had to scrap games, and today—Friday, January 16—we are all basically just digging out. But the real question everyone is asking while they lean on their shovels is: what does the Toronto 30 day forecast actually look like now that the "big one" has hit?
The Immediate Reality Check (January 16–22)
Don't put the shovel in the garage yet. While the orange-level alerts have mostly cleared, the next week is going to be a grind of flurries and "is-my-face-frozen" temperatures. Today’s high is hovering around -2°C, but with the wind chill, it’s feeling closer to -13°C.
Expect about 2 to 5 cm of fresh powder by tonight.
The weekend doesn't offer much of a break. Saturday, January 17, is looking like a high of 0°C with a 60% chance of flurries. It sounds mild, but that’s how the slush starts. By Sunday and Monday, we’re dipping back down. Monday, January 19, is projected to hit a low of -14°C.
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Basically, it's classic Ontario. Gray, breezy, and consistently white.
Looking Into Late January: The Deep Freeze
If you’re hoping for a January thaw, you might want to manage those expectations. Historically, January 29 is the coldest day of the year in Toronto. The long-range outlook suggests we are going to stay true to that tradition.
Between January 22 and January 31, the models are pointing toward "snowy periods" and a shift into what meteorologists call "bitter cold." We’re looking at daytime highs that might not even break -6°C, with nights potentially hitting the -15°C to -20°C range once you factor in those northwest gusts.
- Wind Patterns: Usually 15-25 km/h, but can gust up to 60 km/h during these systems.
- Sunlight: We only get about 3 hours of "bright" sunshine a day right now.
- Humidity: It’s dry. Really dry. Your skin will notice it before your thermometer does.
February Forecast: Is There Light?
February in Toronto is a weird month. It’s officially the snowiest period for us. The first week of February 2026 is already looking like it’ll start with a "snowstorm" around the 3rd to 5th.
But here is the twist: February is also projected to be about 3°C above the historical average.
This is where things get tricky. Warmer temperatures in February don't mean patio weather; they often mean more moisture. We’re expecting about 75mm of precipitation—roughly 20mm more than usual. Expect a lot of "messy" days where it oscillates between rain and snow, especially in the second week (Feb 9–14).
Real Talk on Gear
If you're navigating the city over the next 30 days, "waterproof" is more important than "warm." Those -10°C days turn into 0°C days fast, and the slush on Queen Street doesn't care about your fashion sense.
- Insulated Boots: Must be water-resistant. Salt ruins leather, so spray them down now.
- The Layering Myth: People say "layers" like it's a magic word. Truthfully, you just need a solid base layer (merino wool if you’ve got the budget) and a shell that stops the wind. The wind is what kills you at the corner of Bay and Front.
- Humidifiers: If you're waking up with a sore throat, it’s the 45% humidity in your apartment. Crank the humidifier.
The Verdict on the Month Ahead
We are currently in the thick of the "Cold Season," which usually lasts until mid-March. The Toronto 30 day forecast confirms we are in for a volatile ride. We’ve moved past the record-breaking dump of January 15, but the "bitter cold" phase is just beginning.
Expect a cycle of three days of flurries followed by two days of clear, freezing skies. If you're planning travel, the window between January 24 and January 28 looks the "quietest," though "quiet" in a Toronto winter still means you should check the 401 conditions before heading out.
Next Steps for Torontonians:
- Check Snow Routes: The city has declared a "Major Snowstorm Condition." If you park on a designated snow route, you will be towed to make room for the plows.
- Monitor Flight Status: If you're heading to Pearson (CYYZ) this weekend, give yourself an extra three hours. Air traffic management is still digging out from the 22cm accumulation at the airport.
- Salt Your Walkways: With the freeze-thaw-freeze cycle hitting this weekend, Saturday's 0°C slush will be Sunday's -10°C ice sheet. Get the grit down before sunset Saturday.