Topeka winters are weird. Honestly, if you've lived here long enough, you know the drill: one day you’re scraping thick ice off your windshield at 6:00 AM, and by Tuesday afternoon, you’re wondering if it’s socially acceptable to wear flip-flops to the grocery store. It’s that classic Kansas "weather whiplash" that keeps the local tire shops busy and the rest of us perpetually confused about what to wear.
Right now, looking at the topeka ks extended weather forecast, we are staring down a pretty typical January rollercoaster. We’re currently shivering through a 16°F reality that feels more like 0°F thanks to a 17 mph northwest wind. But don't get too comfortable in your heavy parka just yet. Things are about to shift, then shift again, and then probably break your heart with a bit of "fool’s spring" before the real winter hammer drops.
The Short-Term Shiver and the Sunday Surprises
If you’re planning your weekend around the capital city, Saturday, January 17, is staying predictably cold. We're looking at a high of only 18°F. That’s it. That’s the peak. With northwest winds hitting 18 mph, it’s a "stay inside and order pizza" kind of day. There’s a 20% chance of snow during the day, which basically means you might see some flakes dancing around, but don't expect to build a snowman just yet.
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Then Sunday happens.
Sunday, January 18, is the teaser. The high is projected to jump all the way up to 43°F. That’s a 25-degree swing in 24 hours. If you’re a native Topekan, you don't even find this strange; you just appreciate the fact that the ice on the driveway might actually melt for a few hours. The wind shifts to the west, and while it’s still breezy, it’s a much more manageable kind of cold.
The Mid-Week Outlook: January 19–23
Monday takes us back down to 25°F under cloudy skies. It’s a bit of a reality check. But then, look at Tuesday and Wednesday. We’re talking highs of 46°F and 49°F.
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- Tuesday (Jan 20): Partly sunny, 46°F.
- Wednesday (Jan 21): Sunny, 49°F.
That 49°F on Wednesday is basically a tropical vacation by Kansas January standards. It’s the perfect time to actually wash the salt off your car before the next system rolls through. Thursday and Friday stay relatively mild in the low 40s and high 30s, though the clouds start moving back in to ruin the party.
The "Big Chill" Returns Late January
Here is where the topeka ks extended weather forecast gets a little spicy. If you look toward the end of the month, specifically starting Saturday, January 24, the "January Thaw" officially expires.
We are tracking a shift back to snow showers and much colder air. Saturday the 24th sees the high drop to 24°F with a 25% chance of snow. But it’s the overnight lows that’ll get you. By Monday, January 26, we are looking at a low of -4°F. Yes, negative four. That is "keep the faucets dripping" weather.
This late-January cold snap isn't just a fluke. According to the National Weather Service, we're currently in a weak La Niña cycle. Usually, that means the Pacific Northwest gets hammered with rain and the South stays dry, but for us in the Central Plains, it usually translates to these volatile swings where Arctic air can just "leak" down whenever it feels like it.
The Old Farmer’s Almanac actually predicted this "pockets of wild" trend for the 2025-2026 winter season. They’ve been calling for a mostly mild winter for the Heartland, but with very specific, intense cold snaps in late January. Looks like they might be right on the money this year.
Why the Forecast Changes So Fast in Shawnee County
People always joke that if you don't like the weather in Topeka, just wait five minutes. There’s some science to that madness. We sit right in the path where warm air from the Gulf of Mexico loves to pick a fight with cold, dry air coming down from Canada.
Topeka specifically is at about 900 feet of elevation. We don't have mountains to break up the wind, so when those northwest gusts start howling at 18-20 mph, there is nothing to stop them from cutting right through your favorite sweater. Humidity also plays a role. We’re seeing humidity levels jump from 35% to as high as 95% by Sunday, January 25. That kind of moisture in the air makes the 17°F high on that Sunday feel significantly more "bone-chilling" than a dry cold.
Practical Steps for the Next 10 Days
Since we know the warmth is temporary and the -4°F lows are lurking, here is how you should actually handle this:
- The Wednesday Window: Use that 49°F high on Wednesday, Jan 21, to do your outdoor chores. Check your tire pressure (it drops in the cold) and top off your wiper fluid.
- Prep for the 24th: The snow showers starting Saturday, Jan 24, are likely to be the "light and powdery" kind given the dropping temps. Have your shovel ready Friday night.
- Protect the Pipes: When we hit those single-digit and negative lows on Jan 26-27, make sure your outdoor hoses are disconnected. If your kitchen sink is on an outside wall, leave the cabinet doors open to let the house heat reach the pipes.
- Pet Safety: A 43°F Sunday is great for a walk at Gage Park, but remember that by the following Sunday, the high is only 17°F. If it's too cold for you to stand outside without a coat for ten minutes, it's definitely too cold for the dog to be out long-term.
Basically, enjoy the mid-week warmth while you can. Kansas is just catching its breath before the next deep freeze. Stay weather-aware, keep an extra blanket in the trunk, and maybe don't put the heavy-duty ice scraper in the basement just yet.