If you’d told me two years ago that we would be heading into the 2026 Conference Championships without Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, or Joe Burrow in the mix, I would’ve called you crazy. Honestly, the league feels upside down right now. The "Chiefs Dynasty" talk has gone quiet after Kansas City finished a brutal 6-11 season, and suddenly, the top rated nfl teams are names we used to associate with "rebuilding years."
We are currently sitting in the middle of the Divisional Round. Just yesterday, the Seattle Seahawks and Denver Broncos punched their tickets to host the title games. It's a new era.
The Seahawks are the best team in football (No, really)
It’s hard to argue with 14-3. Seattle didn't just win; they steamrolled people. Mike Macdonald has turned that defense into a brick wall that reminds everyone of the old Legion of Boom days, but with a modern, more complex twist. They just dismantled the San Francisco 49ers 41-6 in the Divisional Round.
Six points. That's all Kyle Shanahan’s offense could muster against them.
The real shocker, though? Sam Darnold.
The guy who was a literal meme a few seasons ago is playing like a franchise anchor. He’s avoiding the soul-crushing turnovers that used to define him. Under Klint Kubiak's play-calling, Seattle has become the most balanced team left. They run the ball effectively, they don't beat themselves, and their home-field advantage at Lumen Field is officially terrifying again. If you’re looking at who the top rated nfl teams are by every metric—DVOA, point differential, or just the "eye test"—Seattle is sitting alone at the top.
Denver's Mile High Magic and the Bo Nix Leap
Over in the AFC, Sean Payton finally found his guy. The Denver Broncos are also 14-3 and just survived an absolute thriller against the Buffalo Bills, winning 33-30 in overtime.
Bo Nix has basically become a fourth-quarter magician.
It’s weird to say about a Payton team, but the defense is actually the lead story here. They lead the NFL in net yards allowed per pass. They don't give up big plays. They force you to dink and dunk your way down the field until you eventually make a mistake.
People keep waiting for the "rookie-to-sophomore" slump for Nix, but he’s actually improved his pressure-to-sack rate significantly. Denver is currently 14-3 at home over the last two seasons. With the AFC Championship Game going through Mile High, they are the clear favorites to represent the AFC in Super Bowl LX.
Why the New England Patriots are a legitimate problem
Remember when the Patriots were "dead" after Brady left? That's over. Drake Maye has arrived, and he is a monster. He leading the league in total EPA (Expected Points Added), which is basically a fancy way of saying he creates more value per play than any other human on a football field right now.
New England finished 14-3.
They are efficient. They are boringly good.
They face the Houston Texans today in a game that feels like a coin flip. The Texans, led by C.J. Stroud and DeMeco Ryans, are arguably the best defensive unit in the league. They just embarrassed the Steelers 30-6. Stroud had some fumbles in that game, but when your defense scores twice and shuts down everything, you can afford a few mistakes.
The winner of this Texans-Patriots matchup is going to give Denver everything they can handle next week.
The "Almost" Teams: Who fell short?
It feels weird not mentioning the Bills or 49ers as the "top" teams anymore, even though they were both in the Divisional Round. Buffalo still has Josh Allen, who is probably the most talented individual in the league, but they just can't seem to get over that road-playoff hump. Losing to Denver in OT was a heartbreaker.
Then there’s Chicago.
Caleb Williams took a massive leap this year. The Bears finished 11-6 and won the NFC North under Ben Johnson. They play the Rams tonight.
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Matthew Stafford is still doing Stafford things at age 37, slinging it to Puka Nacua like it’s 2023. The Rams have this weird "team of destiny" vibe because they can control the line of scrimmage on both sides. They rank top 10 in pass-rush win rate and run-stop win rate. In the playoffs, that usually matters more than having a flashy quarterback.
What's actually happening with the "Elite" teams?
A lot of people are asking what happened to the Chiefs and the Bengals.
It’s basically a mix of salary cap hell and age. The Chiefs looked tired all year. Losing to the Raiders on a 60-yard field goal to miss the playoffs was the symbolic end of that era.
Parity is back.
The gap between the #1 seed and the #7 seed feels smaller than it has in a decade.
If you’re betting on the Super Bowl winner, keep an eye on these specific stats:
- Home record: Denver and Seattle are nearly unbeatable at home.
- EPA per play: New England's Drake Maye is the efficiency king.
- Defensive DVOA: Houston and Seattle are in a league of their own here.
The path to Super Bowl LX at Levi’s Stadium is basically a collision course between the "New Guard" (Nix, Maye, Stroud) and the resurrected veterans (Stafford, Darnold). It’s a wild time to be a football fan.
Your Playoff Strategy:
Watch the Texans vs. Patriots game today very closely. The winner of that game has the defensive front to actually rattle Bo Nix in Denver. If Houston wins, their #1 ranked total defense is the only thing that might stop a Seahawks-Broncos Super Bowl. Keep an eye on the injury report for George Kittle and the 49ers' fallout; that lopsided loss to Seattle suggests a major roster shakeup is coming to San Francisco this offseason.