The winter meetings are long gone, the "hot stove" has basically cooled to a simmer, and if you look at the current landscape of baseball, one thing is glaringly obvious. The Los Angeles Dodgers are trying to break the sport. Honestly, sitting here in January 2026, it feels like we’re just waiting to see who gets the silver medal.
But baseball is weird.
Every year, people look at the top ranked mlb teams and assume the biggest payroll wins. They forget about the 2025 Astros missing the playoffs for the first time in nearly a decade. They forget how the Phillies, despite winning 96 games last year, couldn't get past the NLDS. Rankings right now are a mix of projection, high-priced off-season acquisitions, and a fair amount of guesswork based on who stayed healthy through October.
The Dodgers and the Quest for the Three-Peat
Let's talk about the elephant in the room. The Dodgers just won back-to-back World Series titles. That hasn't happened since the Yankees did it at the turn of the millennium. Most experts, including the folks over at FanGraphs and BetMGM, have them locked in at the number one spot. Why wouldn't they? They just backed up the Brink's truck for Kyle Tucker, handing him a four-year, $240 million deal that makes your eyes water.
$60 million a year.
That’s what it costs to stay at the top. They also swiped Edwin Díaz from the Mets to close out games, which feels almost unfair. When you have a rotation that’s already elite and you add the most dominant closer in the game plus a perennial MVP candidate in Tucker, you aren't just a "top ranked" team. You're a juggernaut.
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Still, there’s a nuance people miss. The Dodgers’ outfield is still a bit of a jigsaw puzzle, and their payroll is so top-heavy that one or two injuries to the "Big Three" could actually make them vulnerable. It sounds crazy to say about a team projected for 93 wins, but the gap between them and the rest of the league isn't a canyon; it’s a jumpable stream.
Why the Blue Jays are the Real 2026 Wildcard
If you’re looking for the team that "won" the off-season, look north. The Toronto Blue Jays are currently sitting at No. 2 in several midwinter power rankings, and for good reason. They were one win away from a World Series ring last year. Instead of sulking, they went out and spent $337 million.
They brought in Dylan Cease to headline a rotation that already looked solid. They signed Kazuma Okamoto from Japan to add some serious thumping to a lineup that already features Vladimir Guerrero Jr. It’s a bold strategy. Toronto has historically struggled to land the biggest free agents, but the 2025-2026 off-season changed that narrative completely.
The real question for Toronto is Bo Bichette. He’s a free agent after this season, and the rumors are swirling. If they keep him, they’re terrifying. If they trade him mid-season because they can't reach an extension, that No. 2 ranking might slide faster than a Shohei Ohtani sweeper.
The "Best of the Rest" and the National League Battle
While the Dodgers and Jays take up all the oxygen, the Philadelphia Phillies and New York Yankees are lurking. Philadelphia is an interesting case. They’ve increased their win total for four straight years. They just brought back J.T. Realmuto on a three-year deal because, frankly, they didn't have a Plan B.
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Is a 35-year-old catcher worth $45 million?
Maybe not on paper. But for a pitching staff led by Zack Wheeler—who is working his way back from injury—having that familiarity behind the plate is worth its weight in gold. The Phillies are currently projected for around 96 wins, the highest in the National League. They are consistent, they are gritty, and they are tired of losing to L.A.
In the American League, the Yankees are... well, they're the Yankees. They have Aaron Judge. They have the resources. But they’ve been surprisingly quiet this winter. Aside from retaining some minor pieces and making a weird Rule 5 pick in Cade Winquest, they haven't made the "splash" fans expected. They’re still a top-five team, but there's a growing sense of frustration in the Bronx that the "Evil Empire" has lost its bite.
Surprising Climbers: The Orioles and Red Sox
Don't sleep on Baltimore. After a disastrous 2025, they’ve completely retooled. Hiring Craig Albernaz as manager was step one. Signing Pete Alonso for five years and $155 million was the loud, aggressive step two.
Alonso in that Camden Yards lineup is a nightmare for AL East pitchers.
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They also traded for Shane Baz and signed Zach Eflin. They went from a team that looked like it was backsliding to a top-10 contender in the span of eight weeks. It’s a reminder of how quickly the top ranked mlb teams list can be shuffled when a front office decides to actually use its prospects as currency.
Boston is doing something similar. They’ve built one of the best rotations in baseball by acquiring Sonny Gray and Johan Oviedo to slot in behind Garrett Crochet. If the Red Sox can find one more infielder—maybe a trade for Brendan Donovan or Nico Hoerner—they could easily jump into the top five by May.
What to Watch Before Opening Day
Rankings in January are essentially fan fiction until the first pitch is thrown, but they tell us who has the highest floor. The Dodgers have the highest floor in history. The Rockies, conversely, are currently projected for 119 losses, which is just painful to think about.
If you're tracking these teams, watch the "second tier" of free agency. Players like Framber Valdez and Cody Bellinger are still out there as of mid-January. Where they land will dictate which "pretty good" team becomes a "great" team.
Actionable Insights for the 2026 Season:
- Monitor the Trade Market: Keep an eye on Freddy Peralta. The Brewers are listening to offers, and if a team like the Orioles or Mets lands him, it shifts the divisional balance of power immediately.
- Watch the Injury Reports: Specifically for the Phillies (Wheeler) and Yankees (Cole/Rodon). Both teams are ranked high based on pitching that isn't currently 100% healthy.
- Don't Ignore International Signings: The Giants just landed Luis Hernandez, one of the most hyped teenagers to come out of Venezuela in years. He might not impact the 2026 rankings today, but he's the reason the Giants' future outlook is jumping.
- Value Consistency over Splashes: Teams like the Mariners and Brewers haven't made the $200 million signings, but they return rosters that won 90+ games. In the grind of 162 games, depth usually beats a single superstar.
The 2026 season is shaping up to be a battle between the Dodgers' checkbook and the rest of the league's collective nerves. Whether anyone can actually topple the champions remains to be seen, but the Blue Jays and Phillies are certainly spending like they believe it's possible.