You’ve heard the hype for years. The name Manning carries a certain weight in this league, and for a long time, everyone assumed the 2026 NFL Draft would basically just be a coronation for Arch. But football is rarely that simple. Honestly, the landscape of the top QBs in 2026 draft has shifted so much in the last few months that the "chalk" picks from a year ago are almost unrecognizable.
We are currently sitting in mid-January 2026. The draft declaration deadline is January 23, and the news cycle is absolutely melting down. If you’re looking for a clear-cut, Trevor Lawrence-style savior, you might be disappointed. This class is messy. It’s full of transfers who found new life, blue-chip recruits who hit a wall, and one massive Manning-sized question mark that is haunting every front office from Las Vegas to New York.
The Arch Manning Elephant in the Room
Let’s get the big one out of the way. Is Arch Manning actually entering the draft? As of right now, it’s looking like a "no." Despite ESPN’s Dan Orlovsky calling him a "runaway No. 1 pick" if he were to come out, the word from the Manning camp—specifically grandfather Archie Manning—is that he’s staying in Austin for the 2026 season.
Scouts are obsessed with his tools. He’s 6-foot-4, 220 pounds, and he’s shown flashes of that Manning brain paired with much better mobility than his uncles ever had. He torched Arkansas and Mississippi State this past season. But he was also erratic. He’s only a redshirt sophomore with one full year of starting experience under his belt. If he stays, the 2026 draft loses its biggest celebrity. If he makes a last-minute U-turn and declares? He’s the first QB off the board, period.
Fernando Mendoza: The New QB1?
If you had Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza as the potential No. 1 overall pick on your 2026 bingo card a year ago, you’re either a liar or a genius. Mendoza is the ultimate "transfer portal win." After leaving Cal, he transformed the Hoosiers into a legitimate powerhouse.
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He basically won the Heisman this year. He’s 6-foot-5, 225 pounds, and plays with a level of poise that makes NFL GMs drool. The Las Vegas Raiders, who currently hold the top pick, are widely expected to snag him. People worry about the "system" at Indiana—since Kurtis Rourke put up similar numbers there—but Mendoza has the "it" factor. His deep ball accuracy against Ohio State in crunch time basically sealed his status as the safest bet in this class.
The Dante Moore Ripple Effect
Everything changed on January 14. Oregon quarterback Dante Moore announced he’s returning to school for his senior year. This was a massive gut punch to the New York Jets and the Cleveland Browns.
Moore was spectacular for the Ducks this year, throwing for over 3,500 yards and 30 touchdowns. Most scouts had him as the clear QB2 behind Mendoza. By staying in school, he’s betting on himself to be the No. 1 pick in 2027. For the 2026 draft, his absence creates a vacuum. Suddenly, guys who were projected as late-first-rounders are being pushed into the top five.
Who is Left? The Risky Top Prospects
With Moore out and Manning likely staying, the "top QBs in 2026 draft" list gets a bit more experimental.
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- Ty Simpson (Alabama): He’s the consensus QB2 now. Simpson is a classic "high floor" guy. He’s smart, accurate, and doesn't make many mistakes. He doesn't have a cannon for an arm, though. Scouts wonder if he’s a franchise cornerstone or just a really good game manager.
- Nico Iamaleava (UCLA): Talk about a rollercoaster. After a rough start at Tennessee and a transfer to UCLA, Nico finally looked like a superstar in an upset win over Penn State. He’s 6-foot-6 and runs like Vince Young. The problem? Consistency. He’s still a Day 3 prospect for some, but a team like the Rams might take a swing on his ceiling in the late first round.
- LaNorris Sellers (South Carolina): Sellers is a tank. 6-foot-3, 240 pounds, and can run through a linebacker. His passing numbers weren't elite this year, but the "traits" are undeniable. He’s the Anthony Richardson of this class—total boom or bust.
The Real Numbers: What Teams Are Seeing
When you look at the production, the gap between Mendoza and the rest of the pack is startling.
Mendoza finished the 2025 season with a 73% completion rate and 41 touchdowns. Compare that to someone like Drew Allar at Penn State, who struggled with footwork and had an "uncatchable pass rate" of over 21% according to PFF. Allar was once a projected top-five pick; now, he’s fighting to stay in the first-round conversation.
It’s also worth watching guys like Garrett Nussmeier (LSU) and Cade Klubnik (Clemson). They’ve been around forever, it feels like. Nussmeier has the arm talent, but he plays a "hero ball" style that leads to too many interceptions. Klubnik has improved, but is he an NFL starter? Most scouts think he's a career backup.
What This Means for Your Team
If your NFL team needs a quarterback and doesn't have the No. 1 pick, you should be a little nervous. This isn't the 2024 class with Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels. This is a year where you might see teams reach for "potential" over "production."
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The Jets, picking at No. 2, are in a nightmare spot. With Moore and Manning out of the picture, do they take Ty Simpson at two? Or do they pivot to a defender like Arvell Reese and wait for 2027? Most experts think they’ll trade down.
Actionable Strategy for Draft Season
If you're following the top QBs in 2026 draft, here is how to track the next few months:
- Watch the January 23 Deadline: If Arch Manning or Nico Iamaleava surprises everyone and declares, the entire board resets.
- Focus on the Senior Bowl: Ty Simpson and Garrett Nussmeier need a big week in Mobile to prove they can handle NFL-style processing.
- Check Medicals on Nico: His "lean" frame at 6-foot-6 is a concern for scouts. If he weighs in under 210 pounds, his stock might slip.
- Monitor the Raiders: If Vegas signs a veteran in free agency, it signals they might not be sold on Mendoza as a "generational" talent.
The 2026 draft is going to be defined by who isn't in it as much as who is. It’s a year for the bold—and the desperate.