Winning your league isn't about following the crowd. It’s about knowing which "reliable" stars are actually fading and which random bench players are about to explode. This week in January 2026, the landscape is shifting fast. We are sitting right in the middle of the NFL Divisional Round and a wild NBA mid-season trade cycle. Honestly, if you aren't paying attention to the specific matchups in the Bills-Broncos game or the fallout from the Trae Young trade to Washington, you're basically guessing.
Why Top Fantasy Players This Week Aren't Who You Think
The biggest mistake people make right now is trusting "season-long" stats during the playoffs. In the NFL, we just saw the Wild Card round wrap up, and the data is screaming at us. Take Jaxon Smith-Njigba. The guy just finished a historic 1,793-yard season—the second-best in Seahawks history—but he didn't even play last week because Seattle had a bye. People see his "total points" and think he's the top play, but if you're in a playoff challenge, the real value was Puka Nacua.
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Puka put up a monstrous 62.5 PPR points against Carolina. That's not a typo. He and JSN were the only wideouts to crack 300 points through the first 17 weeks of the season, and Nacua is clearly the engine of that Rams offense right now.
The Quarterback Conundrum: Allen vs. The Denver Wall
Then there's Josh Allen. Most managers just "set and forget" him. But look at the Divisional Round matchup against Denver. Sure, Allen was nearly perfect against the Panthers, completing 16 of 17 quick passes. But the Broncos? They have the league’s second-highest pressure rate at 40.7%. If Allen can't get the ball out in under 2.5 seconds, he's going to get eaten alive.
On the flip side, Bo Nix has become a sneaky top fantasy player this week. Denver is elite in the red zone, scoring on 22.2% of their rush attempts. Nix has five rushing touchdowns this year. Against a Buffalo defense that allowed the most rushing touchdowns in the league (24), Nix might actually outscore some of the "elite" names. It's weird to say, but the math supports it.
NBA Waiver Wire: The Brice Sensabaugh Explosion
Switching to the hardwood, the NBA side of things is even more chaotic. If you haven't added Brice Sensabaugh yet, what are you even doing? The Utah forward just dropped 43 points on the Bulls on January 14th. That’s a career high. He’s scored over 25 in two of his last three. Utah is struggling, which is actually great for fantasy because they have zero reason not to let him shoot 20 times a night.
The Trae Young Ripple Effect
The Trae Young trade to the Wizards has sent shockwaves through the rankings. Trae is dealing with a quad contusion and a lingering MCL sprain, so he hasn't even suited up for Washington yet. This has created a massive vacuum.
- Bub Carrington is the name you need to know.
- With Trae out and the Wizards basically incentivized to keep their top-8 protected pick, they are going to play the kids.
- Carrington is the primary beneficiary of the "tank" strategy.
Honestly, stashing Bub right now is the kind of move that wins February. While everyone else is fighting over Grayson Allen (who, to be fair, is also rolling with back-to-back 25-point games), you should be looking at the long-term usage in D.C.
The Veterans Falling Off a Cliff
We have to talk about the "name value" trap. It’s painful, but guys like Derrick Henry and Travis Kelce are starting to show the cracks. Henry finished as RB8 this year, which is incredible for a 31-year-old, but the Ravens are heading into 2026 with a new offensive coordinator. The efficiency is dipping.
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And Kelce? He’s TE3, but he hasn't caught a touchdown since Week 13. If you’re in a dynasty league or looking ahead to next week’s DFS slates, you’ve gotta be careful. The age wall is real.
Rising Stars You Can Still Get Cheap
If you need a spark, look at the rookies who are finally "getting it."
- Cooper Flagg: He’s living up to the hype in Dallas. 36.9 fantasy points per game. He's 14th among all forwards. That's insane for a rookie.
- Kon Knueppel: The Hornets sharpshooter is leading all rookies with 19.3 PPG.
- Caleb Love: Since New Year's, he's been a top fantasy player this week for Portland, averaging 24.5 fantasy points during their recent win streak.
How to Handle the Divisional Round Pressure
For those still grinding in NFL playoff leagues, the 49ers-Seahawks game is the one to watch. Brock Purdy is the ultimate "split" candidate. When he isn't blitzed, he's the #1 most efficient passer in the league. When he is blitzed? He drops to 24th. Seattle only blitzed him on 15.8% of plays in their first meeting, and they lost. In Week 18, they upped it to 28% and won convincingly.
If Seattle dials up the pressure this Saturday, Purdy’s fantasy floor falls through the basement. You’re better off looking at a guy like James Cook against that suspect Denver run defense.
Actionable Next Steps for Your Roster
Stop looking at the total points column in your app. It's lying to you by including production from three months ago that doesn't matter today.
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Start by checking the "Last 3 Games" average for NBA players—this is where you’ll see the Brice Sensabaugh trend before your leaguemates do. In NFL formats, prioritize volume over "talent" in the Divisional Round. A mediocre RB getting 20 carries against a bottom-five run defense (like RJ Harvey) is worth more than a superstar in a 50/50 committee.
Go look at the waiver wire for Jalen Tyson or Bub Carrington right now. If they’re gone, look for Cedric Coward in Memphis—the Grizzlies are so banged up he’s basically guaranteed 30 minutes of cardio and at least 12 field goal attempts. Use the volume, ignore the name on the jersey, and you'll stay ahead of the curve.