Preseason polls are basically a Rorschach test for college football fans. You look at a list of 25 teams in August, and depending on your bias, you either see a masterpiece of logic or a total disaster.
The 2025 preseason AP Poll was no different. It arrived with all the usual fanfare and immediately sparked arguments across the country. Texas sat at the top, a spot they hadn’t held in the preseason for decades. Arch Manning was the name on everyone’s lips. Then you had Penn State at number two, breathing down their necks by only five voting points. It was the tightest race for the top spot we've seen since the late nineties.
But here’s the thing about top 25 preseason football rankings: they are almost never right.
Honestly, that’s why we love them. We spent the whole summer arguing about whether Drew Allar would finally lead Penn State to the promised land or if Dabo Swinney’s refusal to use the transfer portal would finally sink Clemson. Looking back from 2026, some of those August assumptions feel like they were from another planet.
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The 2025 Preseason Top 10 Breakdown
When the Associated Press released its list on August 11, 2025, the SEC and Big Ten essentially owned the real estate. They accounted for 19 of the 25 spots. It felt like the "Power Two" era had officially arrived.
- Texas Longhorns: The consensus number one. Quinn Ewers was gone, and the Arch Manning era was supposedly ready for liftoff. Experts pointed to an elite defense led by Anthony Hill Jr. as the safety net for a young quarterback.
- Penn State Nittany Lions: This was supposed to be James Franklin's masterpiece. With Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen returning in the backfield, the hype was through the roof.
- Ohio State Buckeyes: The defending champs. They lost a lot to the NFL, but Julian Sayin was the "it" kid at quarterback.
- Clemson Tigers: A classic "bounce back" pick. Cade Klubnik was entering his senior year, and the defense was littered with future first-rounders like Peter Woods.
- Georgia Bulldogs: Never bet against Kirby Smart, right? Gunner Stockton took the reins at QB, and everyone assumed the machine would just keep rolling.
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish: Marcus Freeman had them coming off a national title appearance. CJ Carr was the new face under center.
- Oregon Ducks: Dan Lanning had built a roster that looked more like an SEC team than a West Coast one.
- Alabama Crimson Tide: Life after Saban was still a question mark, but Kalen DeBoer had enough talent to stay in the elite conversation.
- LSU Tigers: Always the wildcard. High-octane offense, questionable defense.
- Miami (Fla.): The "U" was supposedly back (again) with Carson Beck taking over as a high-profile transfer.
Where the Experts Got It Wrong
The biggest shocker of the 2025 season wasn't who won, but who collapsed.
Penn State started at No. 2. They ended up in the Pinstripe Bowl. Think about that for a second. You go from being five points away from the preseason No. 1 spot to playing in a baseball stadium in the Bronx in December. A double-overtime loss to Oregon early on cracked the foundation, but the wheels fell off entirely during a three-game slide in Big Ten play. James Franklin actually ended up taking the Virginia Tech job before the season was even over. Nobody saw that coming.
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Then you have the "underrated" teams. Indiana was ranked 20th in the preseason AP Poll. They weren't even ranked in some other polls. Fast forward to January 2026, and they were playing for a national championship against Miami. Curt Cignetti didn't just replicate his previous success; he blew it out of the water.
Texas Tech was another one. They started at 23rd. By December, they were sitting at 11-1, blowing out almost everyone in their path. It turns out Behren Morton and a defense that allowed only 180 yards a game was a lot better than the "experts" realized back in August.
Why We Still Obsess Over These Rankings
If the rankings are so frequently wrong, why do we care?
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It’s about the stakes. In the new 12-team playoff format, your preseason starting point dictates the "benefit of the doubt" you get in October. If a top-5 team loses a close game, they drop to 12th. If an unranked team loses a close game, they stay unranked.
The SEC led the way with 10 teams in the 2025 preseason poll. That's a record. It created a narrative that the conference was deeper than it had ever been. While some teams like Oklahoma (preseason 18) outperformed expectations by moving into the top 10 by season's end, others like Florida and South Carolina struggled to maintain that preseason luster.
The Arch Manning Factor and the Quarterback Carousel
You can't talk about the top 25 preseason football landscape in 2025 without mentioning the quarterbacks. It was a year of massive transition.
- Texas: Arch Manning had the most pressure of any athlete in the country. He was good—10 wins is nothing to sniff at—but he didn't quite hit the Heisman heights the media predicted in August.
- Ohio State: Julian Sayin proved that the Buckeyes' system is bigger than any one player. They beat Michigan 27-9 to end a long drought, and Sayin looked like a vet doing it.
- Notre Dame: After an 0-2 start that had South Bend panicking, CJ Carr led them to 10 straight wins.
Actionable Insights for Following the Polls
If you’re trying to navigate the noise of preseason rankings, keep these things in mind:
- Watch the Trenches, Not the Stars: We all talk about the QBs, but Texas's preseason No. 1 ranking was really built on their defensive line. When they lost depth there, they became mortal.
- The "Year Two" Rule: Coaches like Willie Fritz at Houston and Curt Cignetti at Indiana showed that Year 2 is often where the real jump happens. Look for programs with stability in the coaching staff but a chip on their shoulder.
- Ignore the "Votes Received" Section: Teams like BYU and Arizona often get overlooked in the preseason only to end up in the top 15 by November. The voters tend to stick to big brand names early on.
- Schedule Strength is Fluid: A "tough" September game in August might be an easy win by October if the opponent's star QB gets hurt. Always re-evaluate the Top 25 based on who they've actually beaten, not where they were ranked when the game was played.
Preseason rankings are a snapshot of potential, not a prophecy. They tell us who we think is talented, but they can't account for the chaos that makes college football the best sport on earth. As we look toward the 2026 season, the cycle will start all over again—and we'll probably be just as wrong as we were last year.