It feels like the last election just wrapped up, but the political machine is already grinding toward the next one. Honestly, if you hang around Washington or Sacramento long enough, you realize the 2028 race started the second the 2024 results were called. People are exhausted, sure, but the donors and the power brokers? They're already placing bets.
The Democratic party is in a weird spot. They’re basically looking for a fresh face who can bridge the gap between the "Brooklyn progressive" vibe and the "Midwest diner" reality. It’s a tall order. We’re seeing a massive shuffle of governors, senators, and former cabinet members all trying to look busy without looking too ambitious—though everyone knows what they’re doing.
Top 10 Democratic Presidential Candidates 2028: The Frontrunners
Right now, the list of potential names is long, but a few heavy hitters are sucking all the oxygen out of the room. Gavin Newsom is the name you hear most, often followed by a debate about whether a California liberal can actually win in a place like Pennsylvania.
1. Gavin Newsom (Governor of California)
Newsom is basically the early "incumbent" of the primary. According to a Yahoo/YouGov poll from late 2025, he’s sitting at about 21% support among Democrats. He’s got the hair, the money, and a massive national network. His PAC, Campaign for Democracy, has been a fundraising juggernaut, pulling in over $100 million for various causes. He’s trying to prove he’s more than just a "West Coast guy" by visiting places like South Carolina and Idaho. Whether that translates to votes in the Rust Belt is the $100 million question.
2. Pete Buttigieg (Former Transportation Secretary)
"Mayor Pete" hasn't gone anywhere. If anything, he’s more popular now because he’s spent the last few years being the guy Democrats send onto Fox News to handle the tough questions. In a 2025 Saint Anselm College poll, he was actually tied with Newsom at 23% in New Hampshire. He’s got a way of speaking that makes complex policy sound like common sense. Some progressives still find him a bit too "corporate," but his favorability ratings are through the roof with the moderate wing.
3. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (U.S. Representative, NY)
AOC is the wildcard that keeps party leadership up at night. She’s easily the most exciting figure for the younger base. While she’s often seen touring with Bernie Sanders, she’s been building her own distinct brand of pragmatism lately. She’s polling around 14% in early primary states like New Hampshire. The big hurdle? She’s a lightning rod for the GOP. But in a primary, her ability to mobilize small-dollar donors is almost unmatched.
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4. Josh Shapiro (Governor of Pennsylvania)
If you want to win the White House, you basically have to win Pennsylvania. Shapiro did that by a landslide. He’s popular, he’s moderate, and he’s avoided the "national" spotlight just enough to keep his local approval ratings high. He hasn't been traveling to early states as much as Newsom, focusing instead on his 2026 reelection. But don't let the "quiet" approach fool you; he’s a top-tier contender the moment he decides to jump in.
5. Gretchen Whitmer (Governor of Michigan)
"Big Gretch" has a specific kind of appeal that Democrats are desperate for. She’s won big in a swing state, she’s tough, and she’s got a track record of actually getting things done with a divided legislature. Like Shapiro, she’s term-limited and will be looking for a new job after 2026. She’s consistently in the top five of every 2028 poll, even if she’s playing it cool for now.
6. Kamala Harris (Former Vice President)
It’s never wise to count out a former VP. Harris still has a massive base of support, especially among Black voters and women. In several polls, she’s neck-and-neck with Newsom for the "ideal candidate" spot. The challenge for Harris is the "fair or not" baggage of the 2024 loss. She has to convince the party that 2028 would be different, which is a hard sell when voters are craving something new.
7. JB Pritzker (Governor of Illinois)
Pritzker is the billionaire who isn't afraid to pick a fight. He’s spent a lot of his own money—and the state’s political capital—positioning Illinois as a "progressive sanctuary." He’s been headlining fundraisers in New Hampshire and Iowa, and he’s got the resources to stay in a primary longer than almost anyone else. He’s currently hovering around 6% to 9% in early polls.
8. Wes Moore (Governor of Maryland)
Wes Moore is the "new kid on the block" who everyone is watching. He’s a combat veteran, a Rhodes Scholar, and he’s got a charismatic "Obama-esque" vibe that makes donors swoon. He doesn't have much of a national profile yet—most voters outside Maryland still don't know who he is—but he’s been making the rounds in South Carolina. He’s a long shot that could turn into a sprint.
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9. Andy Beshear (Governor of Kentucky)
How does a Democrat win twice in a state that went for Trump by 25 points? That’s Beshear’s resume. He’s the ultimate "moderate" who talks more about "neighborly values" than partisan politics. He’s already expressed interest and has been touring early primary states. If the party decides it needs to win back the "Red State" voters, Beshear is their guy.
10. Mark Kelly (U.S. Senator, Arizona)
Astronaut. Combat vet. Husband to Gabby Giffords. Kelly’s bio is basically a Hollywood script. He’s won twice in Arizona, a state Democrats absolutely need. While he hasn't been as loud as Newsom or Pritzker, his name comes up in every conversation about "electability." He’s the kind of candidate who doesn't need to shout to be heard.
Why the 2026 Midterms Change Everything
We can talk about polls all day, but the 2026 midterm elections are the real starting gun. If candidates like Shapiro or Moore cruise to reelection, their stock goes up. If the Democrats struggle nationally, the party might start looking for more "radical" outsiders like AOC or even a business figure like Mark Cuban, who has been floated in several speculative lists.
There’s also the "Sanders factor." Even at his age, Bernie still pulls about 8% of the primary vote in early snapshots. Whether he runs or just plays kingmaker, his endorsement will likely decide which progressive candidate (like AOC or Ro Khanna) gets the momentum.
What Most People Get Wrong About 2028
The biggest misconception is that the "most famous" person wins. It’s usually about who has the best "ground game" in South Carolina or Nevada.
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Early polls in 2025 and 2026 are mostly about name recognition. Newsom and Buttigieg have that in spades, but a governor like Beshear or Whitmer can build that recognition quickly once the debates start. The Democratic primary is historically a "process of elimination" where the last moderate standing usually takes on the last progressive standing.
Another thing? Don't ignore the "Dark Horse" candidates. People like Senator Raphael Warnock of Georgia or Senator Cory Booker of New Jersey have run before or have the profiles to jump in late. The field is going to be crowded—we’re talking potentially 20+ people on a debate stage again.
Your Move: How to Watch the Race
If you’re trying to figure out who’s actually serious, stop looking at their Twitter (or X) feeds and start looking at their travel schedules.
- Check South Carolina: If a candidate is visiting rural counties there, they’re looking to build the "Firewall."
- Watch the Fundraising: Look at Leadership PAC filings. Candidates who are raising money and giving it to other Democrats are building the favors they’ll call in later.
- Pay Attention to 2026: Any Democrat who wins a governor’s race in a "Purple" state is automatically a top-tier contender.
The 2028 cycle is going to be long, expensive, and probably a bit chaotic. But the "Top 10" list above is where the power is currently concentrated. Keep an eye on those governors—they're the ones with the most to gain and the best "real world" records to run on.