You’re standing outside the Hudson Theatre or the Shubert, looking at the marquee, and you see that little silver medallion sticker. "13 Tony Nominations!" it screams. It looks impressive. It’s meant to. But honestly, if you’re only looking at the number of nods a production gets, you’re missing the actual story of how Broadway lives and dies.
Getting a nod is one thing. Staying open long enough to actually see the ceremony is another beast entirely.
People think tony nominated broadway shows are a guaranteed golden ticket. They aren't. Not by a long shot. Some of the most nominated shows in history—think Slave Play or Mean Girls—walked away with exactly zero trophies after a dozen nominations. It’s brutal. It’s theatrical "friend-zoning" on a national stage.
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The 2025 Shakeup: What Just Happened?
The most recent season was a weird one. You had Maybe Happy Ending basically cleaning up with six wins, including Best Musical. It’s a show about robots. Literally. Two "Helperbots" falling in love in a futuristic Seoul. It’s quirky, it’s tiny, and it beat out massive juggernauts.
Compare that to something like Buena Vista Social Club or Death Becomes Her. Both of those shows walked into the night with 10 nominations each. They were the "it" shows. The heavy hitters. But when the dust settled, Maybe Happy Ending had the momentum.
This is the nuance people miss. A show can have ten nominations because it has a great lighting designer, a killer costume department, and a fancy set, but it might lack the "soul" that makes voters pick it for the big one.
The Underdogs and the Stat-Stuffers
Look at Stranger Things: The First Shadow. It’s a massive technical achievement. It took home Best Sound Design and Best Lighting for a Play. Why? Because it’s a spectacle. But did it win Best Play? Nope. That went to Purpose.
Sometimes a show is nominated because it’s technically perfect, while another is nominated because it makes people cry. Usually, the ones that make people cry—or at least feel like they’ve seen something "important"—are the ones that actually survive the winter.
Why Some Nominees Fail (And Others Fly)
There’s a weird math to being one of the tony nominated broadway shows. You have to open at the right time. Open too early in the fall? People forget you by June. Open too late in April? The nominators are tired, cranky, and have seen 15 shows in three weeks.
Take Stereophonic. It broke the record for the most nominated play in history with 13 nods in 2024. It’s a three-hour play about a rock band in a studio. It shouldn’t have worked. It’s long. It’s dense. But it swept because it felt like a "moment."
The "Revival" Trap
Revivals are a whole different game. You’ve got Sunset Boulevard and Gypsy (starring Audra McDonald, who basically has a permanent seat at the Tonys).
In 2025, the Jamie Lloyd-directed Sunset Boulevard was the talk of the town. Nicole Scherzinger didn't just perform; she inhabited that stage. It had seven nominations. People were obsessed with the "starkness" of it—no sets, just cameras and vibes. It won Best Musical Revival because it reinvented the wheel.
But then you look at Yellow Face or Romeo + Juliet. They get the nominations, they get the prestige, but they often struggle to find an audience after the hype of the awards dies down.
The Politics of the Nominating Committee
Who actually picks these shows? It’s a group of about 50 to 60 theater professionals. They have to see every single eligible show. If they miss one—even because of a flat tire or a cold—they can’t vote in that category.
It’s a grueling job.
They aren't just looking for "good." They’re looking for:
- Innovation: Did this show do something we haven’t seen in 50 years?
- Cultural Relevance: Does this speak to the "now"? (Think Suffs and the suffragist movement).
- Technical Mastery: Is the sound design actually doing something new, or is it just loud?
What Most People Get Wrong About Tony Nods
The biggest misconception? That a nomination means the show is "better" than a non-nominated one.
There are plenty of "fan favorites" that get snubbed every year. The Notebook got some love for its actors—Dorian Harewood and Maryann Plunkett—but it didn't get the Best Musical nod. Does that mean the music was bad? No. It just means the competition was tighter than a corset in The Hills of California.
Also, let’s talk about the "star power" bias. George Clooney got a nod for Good Night, and Good Luck. Daniel Dae Kim for Yellow Face. Cole Escola for Oh, Mary!.
Having a celebrity in the cast almost guarantees a nomination for something, but it rarely guarantees a win unless the performance is undeniable. Cole Escola is the perfect example. Oh, Mary! was a cult hit that became a mainstream phenomenon. They didn't just get nominated because they’re famous; they got nominated because they turned a historical "what if" into the funniest thing on Broadway.
How to Choose Which Nominee to See
If you’re planning a trip to NYC and want to see one of these tony nominated broadway shows, don’t just go for the one with the most wins.
- Check the "Closing Soon" notices. Shows like Hell's Kitchen (which had 13 nominations and won for its leads) eventually set closing dates. Catch them while you can.
- Look at the "Featured" winners. Often, the Best Featured Actor or Actress winners (like Jak Malone in Operation Mincemeat) are the real highlights of the show.
- Don’t sleep on the plays. Everyone wants a musical, but John Proctor Is the Villain or The Picture of Dorian Gray (which won for Sarah Snook’s insane multi-character performance) offer a level of intimacy you won't get in a big dance number.
Broadway is a business. A Tony nomination is a marketing tool. But for the actors and the stagehands, it’s a validation of a year spent in a dark room, trying to make magic happen for a few hundred people a night.
Actionable Next Steps for Theater Fans
If you want to stay ahead of the curve, stop waiting for the Tony ceremony in June. Start tracking the Outer Critics Circle and Drama Desk awards in April and May. They are the "canary in the coal mine." If a show like Maybe Happy Ending or Dead Outlaw starts racking up wins there, it’s a safe bet for the Tonys.
Also, check out the Cast Recordings on Spotify before you buy a ticket. If the music doesn't hook you in your living room, it might not justify the $250 ticket price, regardless of how many nominations are on the poster.
Keep an eye on the "Weekly Broadway Variety" grosses too. A show with 10 nominations that is only filling 60% of its seats is a show that might close before you get your flight booked. Move fast.