Tommy Fleetwood and The Open Championship. It just feels right, doesn’t it? Every time the calendar flips to July and the smell of salt air hits the Northwest coast of England, the same conversation starts up in the galleries and on the putting greens. Is this finally the one? For a guy who grew up sneaking onto Royal Birkdale with his dad, the Claret Jug isn’t just another trophy. It’s the ultimate homecoming.
Honestly, he’s basically the human embodiment of links golf. The flowing hair, the iron play that seems to pierce through a 30-mph gale, and that specific type of patience you only get from playing on the dunes since you were a kid.
The Near Misses That Still Sting
We have to talk about Royal Portrush in 2019. That was the big one. If you’ve followed his career, you know he finished second to Shane Lowry that week. It was a brutal Sunday. The weather was horrific—horizontal rain and the kind of wind that makes a four-foot putt feel like a math problem.
Fleetwood shot a 74 that final day, which sounds high until you realize the conditions were essentially apocalyptic. Lowry was just better. But Fleetwood didn’t crumble; he just ran out of holes.
Look at his record lately. It’s actually kind of insane how consistent he is:
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- 2019 (Royal Portrush): 2nd
- 2022 (St Andrews): T4
- 2023 (Royal Liverpool): T10
Basically, he lives in the top ten when the ground is firm and the bunkers are deep. Even at St Andrews in 2022, he was right there, finishing 14-under par. He just happened to be playing in the same era as a red-hot Cameron Smith and Rory McIlroy.
What Really Happened at Royal Liverpool
When The Open went to Hoylake in 2023, the hype was through the roof. Fleetwood is from Southport. That’s literally just down the road. You could feel the "home game" energy from the first tee.
He opened with a 66. The crowd went nuts. He was sharing the lead with an amateur and Emiliano Grillo, and for a second, it felt like destiny was finally calling. But then Brian Harman happened. Harman played a version of golf that was so clinically efficient it basically sucked the air out of the tournament for everyone else.
Fleetwood hung in there, though. He finished T10, marking yet another year where he was relevant on Sunday. That’s the thing about Tommy Fleetwood at The Open—he’s never just making up the numbers. He’s always a threat.
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Why his game fits the links style
It isn't just about being a "local lad."
- Low flight: He can keep the ball under the wind better than almost anyone on the PGA Tour.
- Lag putting: On those massive double greens, he rarely three-putts. He ranks 13th in bogey avoidance for a reason.
- Scrambling: His hands around the green are pure.
Dealing With the Pressure
There’s a narrative that he "can't win the big one." People used to say that about his PGA Tour status, too. Then 2025 happened.
Fleetwood finally broke that seal in a massive way, winning the 2025 FedEx Cup after taking down the Tour Championship. He silenced the critics who called him "allergic to winning." Before that, he’d banked 31 top-five finishes without a win. That kind of persistence is rare.
Now that the PGA Tour monkey is off his back, he’s playing with house money. He’s already got an Olympic silver medal (Paris 2024) and multiple Ryder Cup heroics under his belt. The only thing left is a Major.
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The 2026 Outlook
As we look at the upcoming schedule, the focus shifts to how he handles the expectations. He’s now a top-5 player in the world. He’s a FedEx Cup champion. The fans still adore him—even when American crowds are shouting weird stuff about his wife’s age at the Ryder Cup, he just smiles and sticks a 7-iron to six feet.
What most people get wrong is thinking he’s a "fringe" contender. Statistically, he’s one of the best ball-strikers in the world. In 2024, his Strokes Gained: Total was consistently hovering in the top tier.
Actionable Insights for Fans and Bettors
If you’re looking at his chances in the next Open, keep these three things in mind:
- Watch the Thursday weather: Fleetwood is a "momentum" player. If he gets a good draw and posts a 68 early, he’s almost impossible to shake from the leaderboard.
- The "Home" Factor: Don't underestimate the energy he gets from the British galleries. While some players find the pressure of a home crowd suffocating, he seems to use it as a shield.
- Iron Accuracy: His driving isn't the longest (averaging around 300 yards), but he’s usually in the top 10 for driving accuracy. On a links course, being in the fairway is worth more than 30 extra yards in the heather.
The reality is that Fleetwood has become the most reliable European performer in major championships over the last five years. Whether it’s the U.S. Open (where he’s shot multiple 63s) or The Open, he is always the man you have to beat.
The path to the Claret Jug usually runs through a few familiar faces. Rory is there. Scottie Scheffler is obviously there. But Tommy? Tommy is the one who feels like he’s playing in his own backyard. He’s already proven he can win the biggest prizes in golf. Now, it’s just about waiting for that one Sunday where the putts drop and the wind stays just friendly enough for a kid from Southport to make history.
To get the most out of following Fleetwood's journey, keep a close eye on his Strokes Gained: Putting stats in the two weeks leading up to The Open. When his flat stick is hot, his ball-striking is almost always good enough to put him in the final three groups on Sunday.