Honestly, the Divisional Round is usually where the "pretenders" finally hit a brick wall. We just finished a Wild Card weekend where underdogs went 4-2 against the spread, which basically means Vegas had a bit of a rough Saturday and Sunday. But today, January 17, 2026, the stakes are different. We have the No. 1 seeds—the Denver Broncos and the Seattle Seahawks—coming off their bye weeks, rested and waiting to protect their home turf.
If you’re looking at today's nfl point spreads, you’ll notice something kind of weird right away. The Broncos are barely favored. We’re talking about a 14-3 team at home, and the books are only giving them about a 1.5-point edge over Josh Allen and the Bills. It feels like a trap, or maybe it’s just a massive amount of respect for how Buffalo handled the Jaguars last week.
Let's break down the actual numbers for today’s slate.
The Saturday Slate: Breaking Down Today's NFL Point Spreads
The schedule for today is a double-header that starts in the thin air of Mile High and ends in the literal loudest stadium in the league. Here is how the lines are sitting across the major sportsbooks like DraftKings and FanDuel as of this morning.
Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos
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- Spread: Broncos -1.5
- Total (Over/Under): 46.5
- Moneyline: Broncos -116, Bills -103
- Kickoff: 4:30 PM ET (CBS)
Denver has been a juggernaut. They won 13 of their last 14 games to clinch that top seed, and Bo Nix has looked like a completely different human being under Sean Payton this year. But the Bills are the "public" team right now. Josh Allen has a postseason TD-INT ratio of 25-4, which is honestly just stupid. The 1.5-point spread tells you the oddsmakers think this is a coin flip. If you think the altitude and the rest advantage for Denver matter, you’re laying the small number. If you think Josh Allen is inevitable in January, you’re taking the points.
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks
- Spread: Seahawks -7
- Total (Over/Under): 45.5
- Moneyline: Seahawks -339, 49ers +272
- Kickoff: 8:00 PM ET (FOX)
This one is a total contrast. The Seahawks are heavy 7-point favorites. It’s an NFC West trilogy. These teams split the regular season, with the Niners winning early and Seattle smoking them 13-3 just two weeks ago to lock up the No. 1 seed. The big story here isn't just the spread; it's the health. Sam Darnold has an oblique injury and hasn't thrown a ball since Thursday. Meanwhile, the Niners are missing Fred Warner and Ji’Ayir Brown. A touchdown spread in a divisional rivalry game is huge, but Seattle has won 11 straight games when they are the favorite.
Why the "Rest vs. Rust" Argument is Often Wrong
You hear it every year. "The No. 1 seed will be rusty."
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Statistically, that’s mostly a myth. Since the NFL expanded to a 14-team playoff format, teams coming off a bye have actually performed significantly better against the spread in the Divisional Round than they did in the old format. They aren't just winning; they are covering.
Today's nfl point spreads reflect a bit of that "rest" premium, especially in the Seattle game. The 49ers had to play a physical, draining game against the Eagles last Sunday. They had to fly to Philly, play in the cold, and now they have to fly back out to Seattle on a short week. That is why that 7-point line hasn't budged much. The market knows San Francisco is gassed.
Weather and Environment Factors for Jan 17
You can't talk about point spreads today without looking at the thermometer.
In Denver, it’s going to be chilly, but clear. The real factor there is the air. The Bills rely on a heavy rushing attack with James Cook, but the Broncos' defense has been elite at home.
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In Seattle, Lumen Field is expected to be around 44 degrees by kickoff. Not "frozen tundra" cold, but damp. The Seahawks' defense under Mike Macdonald is currently the No. 1 scoring defense in the league, allowing just 13 total points over their last two games. When you see a spread of 7 and a total of 45.5, the math suggests a score somewhere around 26-19.
How the Public is Betting Today
If you follow the "betting splits," you’ll see that the money is pouring in on the Bills. People love an underdog with a superstar QB. About 62% of the bets are on Buffalo +1.5. Usually, when the public is that heavy on one side and the line doesn't move to a Pick'em, it means the "sharps" (professional bettors) are taking the other side.
For the night game, it's the opposite. People are terrified of the 49ers' injury report. Losing Fred Warner is like losing the heart of that defense. The spread opened at 6.5 and moved to 7, which indicates that even with the Sam Darnold injury news, the money is still backing Seattle.
Actionable Betting Insights for the Divisional Round
If you are looking to move on these lines, keep a few things in mind:
- The "Short Week" Fade: San Francisco is playing on 6 days of rest after a road game. Historically, teams in this spot struggle to cover large spreads like +7.
- The Total Trend: The Seahawks and 49ers combined for only 46 points across two games this season. The Under 45.5 might be the more "pro" play than the spread.
- Live Betting the Broncos: If Denver starts slow (rust), the line might flip to Buffalo -2.5 or -3.5 in-game. That’s often the best time to jump on the home favorite.
Keep an eye on the final inactive lists about 90 minutes before kickoff. If Sam Darnold is officially ruled out and Drew Lock gets the start, that 7-point Seattle spread will likely crash down to 4 or 4.5 immediately.
Next Steps for Today's Games:
Check the final weather reports for Denver around 3:00 PM ET to see if the wind gusts exceed 15 MPH, as this drastically affects the "Over" on the 46.5 total. Additionally, confirm the status of 49ers WR Ricky Pearsall; if he's out, the Niners' ability to exploit the middle of the field against Seattle's zone vanishes. Stay disciplined with your unit sizing—the Divisional Round is notorious for late-game backdoor covers.