The Divisional Round is where things usually get weird in the NFL. Honestly, it’s that sweet spot where the pretenders have been filtered out by Wild Card weekend, but the heavy hitters—the No. 1 seeds—are finally shaking off the rust from a week of sitting on the couch.
If you're looking at today's NFL betting lines, you'll notice a theme: the books are showing a massive amount of respect to the home teams, but the historical trends are screaming the exact opposite. We've got two massive games today, January 17, 2026, and the spreads are telling two very different stories about how the AFC and NFC hierarchies currently sit.
The Mile High Mystery: Bills vs. Broncos (-1.5)
Bo Nix and the Denver Broncos are sitting in the top spot of the AFC, which is still a sentence that feels a little strange to type. They’ve got the bye. They’ve got the home-field advantage. And yet, the line is a measly -1.5 at most shops like DraftKings and FanDuel.
Basically, the oddsmakers are saying this is a coin flip.
Why? Because the Buffalo Bills just came off a dominant 27-24 win over the Jaguars and look like a team that’s finally clicking at the right time. Josh Allen is playing that brand of "hero ball" that either wins you a Super Bowl or breaks your heart, and right now, he’s not breaking many hearts in Western New York.
Crucial Betting Angles for Buffalo at Denver
- The "Elite Defense" Factor: Buffalo has been a monster against top-tier defenses lately. Specifically, they are 24-7 against the spread (ATS) when facing teams that allow fewer than 19 points per game. Denver fits that bill perfectly.
- Bo Nix’s First Playoff Start: This is the big one. While Nix has been incredibly efficient, playoff pressure at Mile High is a different beast entirely.
- The Total: It opened around 46.5 and has dipped to 45.5. History tells us that when a No. 1 seed plays a road winner from the previous week, the Under hits about 70% of the time.
If you’re leaning Buffalo, you’re betting on the experience. If you’re taking Denver, you’re betting on that thin mountain air and a defense that has carried them all season.
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Today's NFL Betting Lines and the San Francisco Problem (+7)
The nightcap is a divisional grudge match between the San Francisco 49ers and the Seattle Seahawks. This line is much wider, with Seattle sitting as a 7-point favorite.
It feels high.
Seattle has been a juggernaut, winning 11 straight games when they are the favorite. Sam Darnold has somehow resurrected his career in the Pacific Northwest, throwing for over 4,000 yards this season. But the 49ers are the ultimate "roach" team—you just can't kill them. They went into Philly last week as 5.5-point underdogs and came out with a 23-19 win.
Why the 7-Point Spread is Tricky
The 49ers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road rematch games. They know the Seahawks. They play them twice a year. Even though Seattle beat them 13-3 back on January 3rd, the playoffs usually see these divisional blowouts tighten up significantly.
Check out the current board for the 8:00 PM ET kickoff:
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- Spread: Seahawks -7
- Moneyline: Seahawks -345 / 49ers +275
- Total: 45.5 points
Brock Purdy has been a bit of a question mark lately, failing to exceed 34.5 passing attempts in eight straight games. The Niners are leaning heavily on the run, which keeps the clock moving and keeps the score low. That’s why that 45.5 total feels a bit bloated if you think the San Francisco defense can keep Darnold in check.
What the "Sharps" are Seeing
I spent some time looking at the betting splits this morning. The "public" (your average bettors) are all over the Seahawks. They see a 14-3 team at home and think a touchdown spread is easy money.
But the "sharps"—the professional bettors—are nibbling on the 49ers and the Bills.
There’s a really ugly trend for No. 1 seeds lately. When they are home favorites of 7 points or less, they are on a 4-12-1 ATS slide. That applies to both Denver (-1.5) and Seattle (-7) today. It suggests that the week off might actually create more rust than rest, especially in the first half of these games.
Player Props to Watch
If you're into the prop market instead of the side or total, there are two spots that look interesting today:
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- Troy Franklin (DEN): He’s become a 1B target next to Courtland Sutton. His reception line is usually around 2.5 or 3.5, and with his Oregon chemistry with Nix, he’s a high-volume target in short-yardage playoff situations.
- Christian McCaffrey (SF): He hasn’t gone over 6.5 receptions in six straight games. Seattle’s linebackers are fast, and they’ve been coached to take away the check-down.
Smart Moves for the Afternoon
Look, betting the NFL is never "safe." Anyone who tells you they have a "lock" is probably trying to sell you a subscription you don't need.
However, if you're playing today's NFL betting lines, the value seems to be on the road underdogs or the Unders. The playoff atmosphere usually leads to a conservative first quarter as coaches feel out the game.
Your Action Plan:
- Monitor the Buffalo line: If it moves to +2 or +2.5, the value on the Bills becomes almost impossible to ignore.
- Watch the weather in Seattle: It's expected to be around 45-50 degrees, but any late-window rain could turn that SF/SEA game into a defensive slugfest, making the Under 45.5 the strongest play on the board.
- Teaser potential: A 6-point teaser taking the Bills to +7.5 and the 49ers to +13 is a classic "pro" move for a Divisional Saturday.
Check the active rosters about 90 minutes before kickoff. If the Seahawks' offensive line shows any late-breaking injuries, that -7 spread is going to vanish faster than a lead in the fourth quarter against Josh Allen.