Honestly, if you had told anyone a month ago that the streets of Caracas would look like this today, they would’ve called you crazy. The situation is moving so fast it's hard to keep your head straight.
It has been less than two weeks since the United States military carried out that nighttime raid that toppled Nicolás Maduro. Now, today, January 15, 2026, we’re seeing the first real "State of the Union" from the person left holding the pieces: acting President Delcy Rodríguez.
The Speech Everyone is Talking About
Rodríguez stood before the National Assembly today for about 44 minutes. It was short. Usually, these speeches from the Chavista elite go on for hours and hours, mostly filled with rants about "Yankee imperialism."
But today was different.
She was actually advocating for foreign investment. Specifically, she wants foreign companies to come back into the state-run oil industry. It’s a wild pivot. Just yesterday, she was calling the U.S. capture of Maduro a "stain" on relations, yet today she’s basically saying, "Let’s do business."
She spoke right next to a giant photo of Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, who are both currently sitting in a New York jail facing narcoterrorism charges. It’s a weird vibe—trying to keep the old guard happy while simultaneously begging their biggest enemy for a paycheck.
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Trump and the "Shadow Fleet" Seizures
While Rodríguez was talking in Caracas, things were getting heated in the Caribbean.
The Trump administration isn't just watching from the sidelines. Today, U.S. forces seized another oil tanker—the sixth one so far. This ship, the Veronica, was flying a Guyanese flag but the U.S. says it’s part of a "shadow fleet" moving sanctioned oil.
Marines and sailors from the USS Gerald R. Ford boarded the vessel.
Basically, the U.S. strategy is "Maximum Control." Trump has been meeting with oil executives at the White House, promising them "total safety" if they invest $100 billion to fix Venezuela's crumbling pipes and wells. He’s already claimed that the U.S. will control future oil revenues, supposedly to keep the money "for the benefit of the Venezuelan people" in protected U.S. accounts.
Where does María Corina Machado fit in?
This is where it gets kinda messy for the democracy side of things.
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María Corina Machado, the opposition leader who most people believe actually won the 2024 election, was in Washington today. She met with Senator Dick Durbin and other officials. But there’s a massive elephant in the room: Trump seems to be dealing with Delcy Rodríguez for "stability" rather than handing the keys to Machado.
A new poll from the firm Meganálisis shows that 90% of Venezuelans are thrilled Maduro is gone. But 94% of them don't want Rodríguez in charge of the transition. They want Machado.
The Current Reality:
- The Prisoners: Rodríguez says she’s releasing political prisoners to show a "new political moment." About 116 have been let out, but NGOs like Foro Penal say over 800 are still behind bars.
- The Oil Price Problem: Despite all the talk of "buried treasure," the price of oil is hovering around $60. Experts at UCLA and organizations like Wood MacKenzie point out that Venezuelan crude is so heavy and expensive to get out of the ground that it might not even be profitable at these prices.
- The "Shadow" Control: Even though Maduro is gone, the colectivos (armed pro-government groups) are still patrolling many neighborhoods, keeping people on edge.
What Most People Get Wrong
People think that because Maduro is in a U.S. cell, the "regime" is over. It isn't. Not by a long shot.
The military and the police structures built over 25 years are still mostly intact. Delcy Rodríguez is trying to navigate a narrow path between keeping those generals happy and convincing the world she’s someone they can trust.
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Honestly, it’s a gamble. Most big oil companies are hesitant. They remember 2007 when the government just seized their assets. They’re asking: "If I put $5 billion into a well today, who’s going to own it next year?"
Actionable Insights for Following the Transition
If you're watching this unfold, don't just look at the headlines about tankers being seized. Watch these three specific things:
- The Diplomatic Reopening: Watch if European and Latin American ambassadors return to Caracas. Today, the German ambassador was seen shaking hands with Diosdado Cabello. That’s a huge sign of normalization.
- The Machado-Trump Relationship: If Machado remains sidelined in favor of Rodríguez, expect protests to start back up. People didn't wait decades for Maduro to leave just to have "Maduro-lite."
- The Refineries: Look for news about dilutants. Venezuela can't process its own heavy oil without chemicals usually imported from the U.S. If those start flowing again, it means a deal has been struck behind closed doors.
The "New Era" in Venezuela is looking less like a sudden democratic dawn and more like a complicated, oil-slicked negotiation.
Keep an eye on the prisoner release numbers over the next 48 hours. If that stops, it means the "thaw" in Caracas is already freezing over. You can track verified release lists through the Foro Penal social media updates, which remain the most reliable source for boots-on-the-ground human rights data in the country right now.