The Indian stock market is taking a breather today, January 15, 2026. If you tried to log into your Zerodha or Groww account this morning to trade the volatility, you probably realized the screens aren't moving. That’s because major exchanges like the NSE and BSE are closed due to the Municipal Corporation elections in Maharashtra.
It's a quiet moment in what has been a pretty chaotic start to the year.
Most investors are currently staring at a sea of red from yesterday's session. On Wednesday, the Sensex dropped about 245 points, and the Nifty 50 slipped below the 25,700 mark. Honestly, the mood is kinda tense. We entered 2026 hoping for a "Santa Rally" that never really showed up, and now about 70% of the stocks in the Nifty 500 are sitting on negative returns for the month. It’s officially the second-worst start to a year since the pandemic hit in 2020.
Todays market in india and the "Trump Tariff" Anxiety
So, why is everyone so spooked? Basically, it’s a mix of global jitters and local growing pains.
The biggest elephant in the room is the uncertainty over US-India trade relations. With the Trump administration pushing for aggressive tariff measures, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have been hitting the "sell" button like there's no tomorrow. In just the first few days of January 2026, FIIs yanked out over ₹12,000 crore from Indian equities. They sold nearly ₹1.66 lakh crore in 2025, and it looks like they aren't done yet.
When the big money leaves, the rupee feels the heat. We're looking at the rupee trading around the ₹90 mark against the US dollar. That’s a tough pill to swallow for importers, though it might give a slight edge to our IT exporters—if they can get their growth back on track.
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The IT Sector's Mid-Life Crisis
Speaking of IT, the Q3 earnings season just kicked off, and the results are... well, mixed. Infosys recently reported a 2.2% dip in net profit, coming in at ₹6,654 crore. A huge chunk of that was due to a one-time ₹1,289 crore hit from the new labor codes that went live in November 2025.
It’s not just Infosys. Most of the "Big Four" in Indian IT are grappling with a linear growth problem. They are great at enabling AI for other people, but they haven't quite figured out how to make AI move the needle for their own bottom line yet.
- Tata Consultancy Services (TCS): Struggling with cautious discretionary spending from US clients.
- Tech Mahindra: Seeing some pressure on margins as talent costs remain sticky.
- The Silver Lining: Mid-cap IT firms are actually doing better, finding niche spots in generative AI implementation that the giants are too slow to grab.
Is the "Goldilocks" Economy Real?
Despite the red screens, the underlying economy is actually quite sturdy. Deloitte and the UN are still projecting India’s GDP to grow between 6.6% and 7.5% for the fiscal year 2026. We are still the fastest-growing major economy in the world.
Inflation is the one thing going right. The CPI for December 2025 was a cool 1.33%. That’s well below the RBI's 4% target. This "Goldilocks" scenario—high growth and low inflation—gave the Reserve Bank of India room to cut the repo rate to 5.25% recently.
So, why hasn't the market reacted? Because the market is forward-looking and currently obsessed with the Union Budget 2026, which is just a couple of weeks away. Everyone is waiting to see if the government will pivot from public spending to giving tax breaks that encourage private companies to finally start building factories again.
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Sectors That Are Actually Winning
While the indices look sluggish, there are specific pockets where people are making money.
- Metals & Energy: Tata Steel and NTPC were among the top gainers yesterday. As the world looks for "China Plus One" sourcing, Indian steel is becoming a strategic asset.
- Renewables: There is a massive buzz around the Budget 2026 potentially de-risking private investment in rare earth minerals and green hydrogen.
- Public Sector Banks: Surprisingly, PSU banks like Union Bank reported a 9% jump in profit. They’ve cleaned up their balance sheets and are finally seeing real credit growth.
What Most People Get Wrong About This Slump
The common mistake right now is thinking that India has lost its "Moat." It hasn't.
What we're seeing is a valuation correction. For the last two years, Indian stocks were trading at a massive premium compared to other emerging markets. FIIs are rotating their money into cheaper markets like China or tech-heavy markets like Japan and the US. It’s not a vote of "no confidence" in India; it’s just Wall Street being cheap.
Also, don't ignore the "Domestic Institutional Investors" (DIIs). While foreigners sold, Indian mutual funds and retail investors pumped in nearly ₹17,900 crore in the first week of January. We are literally buying our own market. This is why we haven't seen a 2008-style crash despite massive foreign outflows.
Actionable Steps for Your Portfolio
If you're looking at your portfolio today and feeling a bit nauseous, take a deep breath. The market is closed, so you can't do anything rash anyway. Here is how to play the rest of January 2026:
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Stop Chasing Small-Cap Returns
The "easy money" in micro-caps is over for a bit. With 60% of stocks trading below their 200-day moving average, the trend is technically weak. Stick to quality large-caps that have already been beaten down.
Watch the ₹25,600 Level on Nifty
Technical analysts like Ajit Mishra from Religare are pointing out that 25,600 is the line in the sand. If we break below that when the market reopens on Friday, we might see another 2-3% slide toward 25,150. That’s not a reason to panic—it’s a reason to keep some cash ready.
The "Import Substitute" Play
Keep an eye on companies that benefit from the Production Linked Incentive (PLI) schemes. The government is expected to double down on these in the upcoming Budget to counter US tariffs. Companies making electronics components or chemicals locally are in a great spot.
Focus on "New Frontiers"
Nilesh Shah of Envision Capital recently noted that many of the IPOs from 2025 are finally becoming "reasonable" in price. Look for digital platforms and healthcare companies that have corrected 20-30% from their listing highs. These are the Nifty constituents of 2030.
The market might be closed today, but the story is far from over. Use this break to reassess your risk. If you can't handle a 5% dip, you might be over-leveraged. If you’re a long-term player, these "boring" or "scary" months are usually where the best entry points are hidden.
Next Steps for You:
- Check your asset allocation: Ensure you aren't more than 15-20% in high-risk small caps given the current volatility.
- Set price alerts: Mark the 25,600 Nifty level and the 83,200 Sensex level to stay informed when trading resumes Friday.
- Review Q3 Earnings: Look specifically at "Operating Margins" rather than just Net Profit to see which companies are actually managing the new labor costs well.