Look, Sunday afternoons in January are basically designed for losing your mind over a mid-major total that hasn't moved in four hours. You’ve got the NFL playoffs sucking all the oxygen out of the room, but if you’re actually paying attention to the hardwood today, Sunday, January 18, 2026, there is some serious money to be made.
Honestly, everyone is talking about the top of the AP Poll—Arizona is still sitting at No. 1 like they own the place—but the real chaos is happening in the trenches of the Big 12 and the AAC.
The Houston Defensive Wall vs. Arizona State’s Road Magic
If you haven't watched Kelvin Sampson’s Houston Cougars lately, you’re missing the most stressful brand of basketball on the planet. They are currently ranked first in the nation in points allowed, giving up a ridiculous 59.3 per game. Today’s college basketball picks usually start with whether or not you think a team can even breathe against that "U of H" pressure.
Arizona State is coming into the Fertitta Center as 16.5-point underdogs. That sounds like a lot. It is a lot. But here’s the thing: the Sun Devils have been weirdly better on the road. They’re shooting nearly 39% from deep away from home compared to a dismal 27% in their own gym.
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- The Matchup: No. 7 Houston vs. Arizona State
- The Line: Houston -16.5
- The Total: 145.5
Basically, Houston plays at a snail's pace—328th in the country in possessions per game. They want to grind you into dust. Greg Peterson, a guy who actually grinds these numbers until his eyes bleed, has his handicapped total at 135.5. That’s a ten-point gap from the market. If you aren't looking at the Under here, you might be overvaluing Arizona State's ability to actually get a shot off before the shot clock buzzer sounds.
Why Memphis is a Dangerous Favorite Today
Over in the AAC, Memphis is laying 21.5 points against UTSA. 21.5! That is a massive number for a team that has been as "boom-or-bust" as Penny Hardaway’s squad. One night they’re hanging 80 on someone's head, and the next they’re struggling to break 55.
The Tigers are fast. They rank 83rd in possessions per game. But UTSA isn't exactly a defensive powerhouse. The total is sitting around 145. If Memphis decides to show up, they could cover this by halftime. If they don't? You’re sweating out a 20-point lead with four minutes left while the walk-ons are checking in. It's a classic trap.
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Mid-Major Value You’re Probably Missing
While the Big 12 gets the TV slots, the Horizon League and the WCC are where the sharp money is landing.
- Oakland at Green Bay: Green Bay is on a five-game heater. They’re 3.5-point underdogs at home, which feels disrespectful. Oakland scores a lot (83.5 PPG), but they also give up a ton (82.3 PPG). The total here is a massive 158.5. If you like points, this is your game.
- San Francisco vs. Washington State: This WCC clash is basically a coin flip according to the metrics, but the Dons are 5.5-point favorites. Ryan Beasley is the engine for USF, and if he gets going from deep, Wazzu doesn't have the perimeter defense to keep up.
- Wichita State at South Florida: The Shockers are 7.5-point underdogs. Why? They are 2nd in the country in offensive rebound percentage on the road. They get second chances like it’s their job. South Florida depends way too much on the three-ball (45% of their shots), and if those don't fall, Wichita State covers easily.
The Injury Factor Nobody Mentions
You’ve got to check the reports before you lock anything in. For instance, UW Milwaukee is playing Fort Wayne today without their leading rebounder, Danilo Jovanovich. He’s missed the last two. Without him, Fort Wayne (who is 38th in forcing turnovers) is going to have a field day in transition.
Also, keep an eye on Alabama. They’ve had a rough week, falling to No. 18 in the polls after losing to Vanderbilt. They are dealing with a laundry list of undisclosed injuries—Latrell Wrightsell Jr. and Davin Hannah are still out. If you’re betting on the Tide right now, you’re betting on a shell of the team we saw in November.
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Actionable Insights for Today’s Board
Stop betting on names and start betting on styles. Houston is a defensive juggernaut that kills the over. Memphis is a high-octane mess that makes spreads irrelevant.
- Look for the Under in the Houston/Arizona State game. The pace is just too slow for 146 points unless there's a triple-overtime miracle.
- Take the points with Wichita State. Their rebounding edge is a nightmare for a South Florida team that relies on long rebounds from missed threes.
- Fade the Memphis spread. 21.5 is an ego number. UTSA is bad, but Memphis hasn't proven they can maintain focus for 40 minutes to cover three touchdowns.
Check the live lines about 20 minutes before tip-off. If the total in the Green Bay/Oakland game starts climbing toward 160, the sharp money is betting on a track meet. Get in on the value while the public is still busy watching pro football.
Log into your preferred sportsbook and compare the opening lines for the Horizon League games against the current movement; specifically, watch the Green Bay vs. Oakland total. If it stays above 158, prioritize the over. For the Big 12 matchups, wait for the starting lineups to confirm if any late-scratch injury news shifts the Houston spread below 15.