Honestly, if you're looking at the slate for January 17, 2026, you've probably noticed it's one of those weirdly high-stakes Saturdays where the table position doesn't tell the whole story. We are deep into the winter grind. Legs are heavy. The transfer window is open, so half the players are distracted by their agents whispering about moves to Saudi or the MLS. When we talk about today football matches prediction, we have to look past the badge and see who actually has eleven fit players who aren't currently "ill" with a mysterious January virus.
Take a look at the Premier League. It’s chaos. Manchester United just beat City 2-0 at Old Trafford earlier today in a result that basically nobody saw coming given their recent form. Michael Carrick, back as interim manager, seems to have some sort of voodoo magic over the blue half of Manchester. That result changes the entire vibe of the weekend. It’s not just about stats anymore; it’s about momentum and, frankly, who wants it more in the rain.
Why the Manchester Derby Result Shakes Up Today’s Predictions
You can’t talk about today’s remaining games without acknowledging the earthquake at Old Trafford. United were 15th last season. They've been a mess. But today? They looked like a different team. Mbeumo and Dorgu were clinical. This matters because it puts massive pressure on the "big" teams playing later.
Arsenal are heading to the City Ground to face Nottingham Forest. Now, look. Everyone expects the Gunners to walk this. But Bukayo Saka is on the bench. That’s a massive call by Mikel Arteta. If you’re betting on a comfortable 3-0, you might want to rethink. Forest at home in the late kick-off is a nightmare. The crowd is on top of you. The grass is usually a bit longer and slower. It’s a trap game if I’ve ever seen one.
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La Liga and the Real Madrid "Gimme"
Over in Spain, Real Madrid are hosting Levante at the Bernabéu. On paper? It’s a slaughter. Real Madrid are scoring over two goals a game while Levante are basically a sieve at the back. Most experts are leaning toward a heavy home win with a -2 handicap.
But here’s the thing. Real Madrid didn’t win a single trophy in 2025. There is a weird tension in that stadium. Arbeloa is in charge as an interim. The fans are restless. Levante just thrashed Sevilla 3-0 recently. They aren't scared. Sure, Madrid should win, but if they don’t score in the first twenty minutes, the whistling starts. That changes the psychology of the match. Don't be shocked if it's a nervy 1-0 or 2-1 rather than the 5-0 some are predicting.
Serie A: The Inter Milan Juggernaut vs Udinese
Inter are traveling to Udinese. Simone Inzaghi’s team is a machine, averaging 2.21 goals per match. They just came off a win in the Champions League and they’re sitting pretty at the top of Serie A.
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- The Stat: Inter have won 7 of their last 10 games.
- The Caveat: They lost to Udinese 2-1 at home last summer.
- The Reality: Udinese plays "dull" football (their words, not mine, though the stats back it up). They try to choke the life out of the game.
If you're looking for goals here, you might be disappointed. Inter will likely find a way through—Martinez is in too much form to ignore—but it’ll be a tactical chess match. Expect a lot of fouls in midfield and a very frustrated Inzaghi on the touchline.
The Bundesliga Chaos Factor
Germany is where the real value usually sits for today football matches prediction. Borussia Dortmund are playing St. Pauli. Dortmund at the Signal Iduna Park should be a banker. They have a 74% win probability according to the bookies.
But have you seen Dortmund's defense lately? They’re about as solid as a wet paper towel. St. Pauli are the ultimate disruptors. They don't have the quality, but they have the engine. If Dortmund doesn't respect the counter-attack, we’re looking at a high-scoring draw. I’m thinking 2-2 or 3-2. It’s going to be wild.
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What Most People Get Wrong About January Form
Everyone looks at the "Last 5 Games" column. In January, that's a mistake. You have to look at the injury report and the weather.
Chelsea just beat Brentford 2-0, but it was a "perfect" debut for Liam Rosenior. They only had two shots on target. Two! Brentford dominated but couldn't finish. That tells you that Chelsea aren't "back"—they just got lucky. If you're predicting their next game based on that scoreline, you're going to lose money.
The "January Virus" is also real. Several clubs, including Chelsea and Liverpool, have reported players missing training with illness. A team's depth is tested more this week than at any other point in the season.
Actionable Betting Insights for the Evening Slate
- Watch the Lineups: In the Premier League, especially with the 5:30 PM starts, wait for the confirmed XIs. If a star like Saka is benched, the "Under" on goals becomes much more attractive.
- Fade the "Lucky" Winners: Teams like Chelsea who won today despite being outplayed are prime candidates for a reality check in their next outing.
- Respect the Home Underdog: Nottingham Forest and Udinese are built to frustrate big teams. In your today football matches prediction strategy, look at the Asian Handicap (+1 or +1.5) for these home sides.
- The "New Manager" Bounce: We saw it with Carrick today at United. We saw it with Rosenior at Chelsea. If a team has a fresh face in the dugout, throw the old stats out the window.
Focus on the teams with stable defensive pairings. In a month where everyone is tired, the team that can grind out a 1-0 win is king. Don't chase the flashy 4-0 predictions; the data suggests the mid-January slog favors the organized over the talented.