Honestly, if you've walked into a T.J. Maxx lately, you know the vibe. It’s chaotic, it’s crowded, and you’re probably fighting someone for a discounted Le Creuset dutch oven. But while shoppers are hunting for deals, investors are eyeing the TJX stock price with a mix of awe and a little bit of "is this too good to be true?"
As of mid-January 2026, the stock is hovering around $156 to $157. It’s been a wild ride. Over the last year, TJX has surged about 34%. Compare that to some of the "traditional" retailers struggling to keep the lights on, and it’s clear that the off-price model isn't just surviving—it’s basically eating everyone else's lunch.
What’s Actually Driving the Price Right Now?
You might think it’s just about cheap clothes. It’s not. The secret sauce is something the company calls "opportunistic buying."
When big-name department stores or designers overproduce—which happens constantly in this volatile economy—TJX swoops in. They have an army of over 1,300 buyers. These people are like the special forces of retail. They negotiate hard, pay fast, and don’t ask for the "marketing allowances" that give other retailers headaches.
This flexibility is why the TJX stock price managed to hit a 52-week high of $159.48 recently. While the rest of the world worries about inflation or weird shifts in consumer spending, TJX thrives on the "trade-down" effect. When people feel poor, they shop at Maxx. When they feel rich, they still shop at Maxx because, hey, who doesn't like a $200 jacket for $60?
The Numbers You Should Care About
Let's look at the cold, hard data from their latest fiscal reports. In the third quarter of fiscal 2026 (which ended in late 2025), TJX pulled in $15.1 billion in revenue. That's a 7% jump from the year before.
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- Comparable Store Sales: Up 5% overall.
- Marmaxx (TJ Maxx & Marshalls): This is the powerhouse, seeing 6% growth.
- HomeGoods: Solid at 5%.
- Earnings Per Share (EPS): They hit $1.28, beating what the "experts" on Wall Street expected.
The company is so confident that they raised their full-year guidance for 2026. They're now looking at an annual EPS of roughly $4.63 to $4.66. When a company tells you they’re going to make more money than they originally thought, the stock price usually follows.
Is TJX Overvalued at $157?
Here’s where it gets kinda tricky. If you look at the P/E ratio, it’s sitting around 34.3x.
For a retail stock, that’s high. Really high. Your average specialty retailer usually trades closer to 21x or 22x. Some analysts, like the folks over at Simply Wall St, have even suggested the "intrinsic value" is closer to $105 based on future cash flows. That would imply the stock is nearly 50% overvalued.
But markets aren't always logical.
People pay a premium for TJX because it’s a "compounder." It doesn't just grow; it survives. It hasn't had a negative year in terms of annual price movement since 2008. That’s a nearly 20-year winning streak. Investors view it as a defensive play—a place to park money when the rest of the market looks shaky.
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The Competition: Ross vs. Burlington vs. The World
TJX isn't the only player in the game, but they are the biggest. Ross Stores (ROST) is their closest rival, often catering to a slightly lower-income demographic. Ross has been doing great too—their stock jumped 30% in 2025—but TJX has the international edge.
[Image comparing store count and global reach of TJX, Ross, and Burlington]
While Ross is mostly a U.S. phenomenon, TJX is everywhere. They’re launching T.K. Maxx in Spain in early 2026 and already have a massive footprint in Canada, Europe, and Australia. This global diversification helps protect the TJX stock price if the U.S. economy takes a localized dip.
Burlington (BURL) is the scrappy underdog here. They’ve been opening stores like crazy, but their margins haven't quite reached TJX levels yet. In Q3, Burlington’s same-store sales only grew 1%, which looks pretty weak compared to TJX’s 5%.
The "Red Flags" Nobody Wants to Talk About
It’s not all sunshine and designer handbags. There are real risks that could tank the TJX stock price if things go sideways:
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- Tariffs: This is the big one for 2026. If new import taxes hit apparel sourced from overseas, it could squeeze margins. TJX says they’re adaptable, but everyone has a breaking point.
- Labor Costs: They have over 5,000 stores. When minimum wages go up, their bottom line feels it immediately. In early 2025, they actually saw a dip in profit margins because of wage hikes.
- Inventory Bloat: Their whole model depends on getting "fresh" stuff. If they overbuy the wrong things, they have to mark them down, which kills profits.
Honestly, the biggest risk might just be expectation. Wall Street expects perfection from TJX. If they ever report a "flat" quarter, the sell-off could be brutal.
What Should You Do Now?
If you're looking at the TJX stock price and wondering whether to jump in or run away, here’s the deal.
The company is a cash-generating machine. They returned $3.1 billion to shareholders in the first nine months of fiscal 2026 through buybacks and dividends. Speaking of dividends, they currently pay about $1.70 per share annually (around a 1.1% yield). It’s not huge, but it’s consistent.
Actionable Insights for Investors:
- Watch the $150 support level: If the stock dips below its 50-day moving average (currently around $152), it might be a better entry point.
- Keep an eye on Feb 25, 2026: That’s the estimated date for their Q4 earnings. If they beat the $1.22 EPS estimate, we could see a push toward $170 or even $180.
- Diversify within retail: Don’t just bet on the "King." Keep an eye on ROST as well, as they often trade at a slightly more reasonable valuation.
- Check the "Trade-Down" signals: If credit card debt continues to hit record highs in 2026, off-price retail will likely continue to outperform luxury and mid-tier department stores.
The "treasure hunt" isn't just for shoppers anymore; it's for investors trying to find growth in a weirdly shaped economy. TJX has proven it can handle the heat, but at these price levels, you've gotta decide if you're buying a designer deal or paying full retail for the stock.
Next Steps for You:
Check the current real-time ticker for TJX to see if it has broken the $160 resistance level. Then, look at the upcoming SEC filings for any major insider selling, which has been a minor trend among executives in early January.