tj hockenson 2023 fantasy points: What Most People Get Wrong

tj hockenson 2023 fantasy points: What Most People Get Wrong

If you drafted TJ Hockenson in 2023, you probably spent the first fifteen weeks of the season feeling like a certified genius. Then, Week 16 happened. That devastating knee injury against the Detroit Lions didn't just end his season; it blew a hole in thousands of fantasy championship runs. But if we look past the heartbreak of the fantasy playoffs, the actual tj hockenson 2023 fantasy points tell a story of a player who was arguably the most consistent force at the tight end position for the better part of four months.

He wasn't just "good for a tight end." He was a target-hogging monster in an offense that basically refused to run the ball.

The Raw Math of the Hockenson Breakout

Let's get into the weeds. In full PPR formats, Hockenson finished the year with 233.0 total points. That’s a massive number. It put him as the TE4 overall on the season, trailing only Sam LaPorta, Travis Kelce, and Evan Engram. But there's a catch.

Engram and LaPorta played 17 games. Hockenson only played 15.

If you look at points per game, the picture gets even clearer. He averaged 14.6 PPR points per contest. Honestly, that’s elite wide receiver production coming out of your tight end slot. He caught 95 passes—a career high—and racked up 960 yards. He was just 40 yards shy of that elusive 1,000-yard mark when his ACL and MCL gave out.

The volume was just stupid. He saw 127 targets. That’s an average of 8.5 targets every single time he stepped on the field. In a year where Travis Kelce finally looked human and Mark Andrews dealt with his own injury woes, Hockenson became the safety net everyone wanted.

Week-by-Week Breakdown (The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly)

It wasn't all sunshine. Remember Week 4 against Carolina? Two catches for 24 yards. Owners were panicking. But then he went on a tear that basically saved seasons.

  • Week 2 at Philadelphia: 7 catches, 66 yards, 2 TDs (25.6 PPR points).
  • Week 7 vs. San Francisco: 11 catches, 86 yards (19.6 PPR points).
  • Week 10 vs. New Orleans: 11 catches, 134 yards, 1 TD (30.4 PPR points).

That Saints game was his masterpiece. Josh Dobbs was under center, Justin Jefferson was out, and Hockenson just decided to be the entire offense. He was catching everything. Short curls, seam routes, contested balls in the red zone—he was inevitable.

Most players fall off a cliff when their starting quarterback goes down. When Kirk Cousins tore his Achilles in Week 8, the "experts" assumed Hockenson’s value would tank. It did the opposite.

Between Jaren Hall, Josh Dobbs, and Nick Mullens, the Vikings' quarterbacks all had one thing in common: they were scared. And when a quarterback is scared, they throw the ball to the big guy in the middle of the field.

Hockenson’s target share actually remained steady or increased during the chaotic mid-season stretch. From Week 9 to Week 15, he never saw fewer than 7 targets in a game. That kind of floor is rare. Most tight ends give you a "donut" every three weeks. Hockenson was basically giving you a 10-point floor just by waking up.

The Red Zone Reality

If there’s one "downside" to the tj hockenson 2023 fantasy points profile, it was the touchdowns. He only had five.

Compare that to Sam LaPorta’s ten or Travis Kelce’s five (in what was considered a "down" year for Kelce). If Hockenson had caught just three more touchdowns—which, given his 15 red zone targets, was entirely possible—he would have been the undisputed TE1. He was often the guy who got them to the five-yard line, only for Jordan Addison or a random fullback to vulture the score.

The Injury That Ruined Everything

We have to talk about Week 16. It’s the elephant in the room.

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The Vikings were playing the Lions. Hockenson had 4 catches for 58 yards and was looking like he’d have another double-digit day. Then Kerby Joseph went low on a tackle. Hockenson’s knee buckled. Just like that, his season was over.

For fantasy managers, he finished that week with 9.8 points. It wasn't a total bust, but he gave you zero for the championship in Week 17. Because of that, people remember his 2023 season with a bit of a bitter taste. But objectively? It was the best season of his career.

Actionable Insights for Dynasty and Future Drafts

So, what do we do with this info now? The 2023 season proved that Hockenson is "QB-proof" in Kevin O’Connell’s system. Whether it’s Sam Darnold, J.J. McCarthy, or a jugs machine throwing the ball, the Vikings' offense is designed to funnel targets to the tight end.

  • Valuation: Don't let the injury discount him too much. If he’s on the field, he's a top-3 target.
  • The "Jefferson" Factor: Many worry that Justin Jefferson eats all the targets. 2023 showed they actually help each other. When Jefferson is on the field, Hockenson gets easier matchups against linebackers.
  • Target Floor: In PPR leagues, Hockenson is more valuable than "touchdown-dependent" tight ends like George Kittle. You’re betting on volume, and volume is more predictable than TDs.

If you're looking to rebuild a dynasty roster or planning your next redraft, look at the target per route run (TPRR) metrics from 2023. Hockenson ranked near the top of the league. That isn't a fluke. It's a role.

The best move right now is to check your league's waiver wire or trade blocks for managers who are still "scared" of that Week 16 injury. The points he put up in 2023 weren't a result of luck; they were a result of being the best secondary option in a pass-heavy dome offense.