Thursday is usually that weird "middle child" of the week. You’re over the hump, but the weekend still feels like it’s dangling just out of reach. If you're checking the forecast, you’ve probably noticed that things are feeling a bit erratic lately. That's because we are currently slogging through a winter season defined by a collapsing La Niña.
Basically, the "normal" rules for January have been tossed out the window.
Thursday Weather: The Big Picture Right Now
If you’re in the United States, Thursday, January 22, 2026, isn't going to be a uniform experience. While the southern tier of the country—think everything from Southern California across to Florida—is seeing a distinct trend toward warmth, the northern states are a different story.
The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has been tracking a pretty significant "troughing" pattern. What does that actually mean? It means the jet stream is dipping down, allowing colder air to leak into the Upper Midwest and the Northeast.
- The Northern Plains: Expect a biting chill. We are seeing a "moderate risk" of much-below-normal temperatures for parts of the Northern Intermountain and Great Lakes region.
- The Southeast: It’s dry. Really dry. Over 99% of the Southeast is currently under some form of drought alert. Thursday’s weather here likely feels more like a parched autumn than a lush winter.
- The West Coast: It’s a bit of a toss-up. While the Pacific Northwest is catching some of that "wetter-than-average" La Niña moisture, California is largely stuck under a high-pressure ridge that’s keeping things sunny and, honestly, way too warm for January.
Is it going to snow this Thursday?
Everyone asks this. Nobody wants to be the one stuck in a surprise blizzard while wearing loafers.
According to the latest NOAA Probabilistic Hazards Outlook, there is a "slight risk" of heavy snow for higher elevations in the Rockies and the Great Basin heading into the latter half of the week. If you’re in the Great Lakes or the Central Appalachians, there’s a persistent chance of "lake effect" snow or upslope flurries.
It’s not necessarily a blockbuster storm setup. Instead, experts like Ray Russell from Ray’s Weather describe this as a "nickel-and-dime" pattern. You get a few inches here, a dusting there. It builds up over time rather than dumping two feet in a single afternoon.
The Global Perspective: Beyond the States
The weather in Thursday isn't just about what's happening in your backyard. Globally, we are seeing some wild shifts.
The ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) is currently observing a massive transition in the tropical Pacific. The La Niña that has dictated our weather for months is "collapsing" rapidly. This is causing a bit of a chaotic atmospheric ripple effect.
In Europe, for instance, a mild westerly flow is keeping things much warmer than usual for late January. If you're in London or Paris, you’re likely looking at damp, grey, but relatively temperate conditions rather than a deep freeze. Meanwhile, parts of Southern Africa and Western Colombia are dealing with moderate to heavy rainfall that’s raising flooding concerns.
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Why the forecast feels so "off" lately
Ever feel like the weatherman is just guessing? You're not entirely wrong.
When we transition from a La Niña to an ENSO-neutral state (which is exactly what is happening this January 2026), the traditional weather models lose their "anchor." We are moving toward a potential El Niño by the fall of 2026, and that "flip" creates a lot of atmospheric noise.
One day it’s 50 degrees in New York, and the next, a "Westerly Wind Burst" in the Pacific sends a cold snap screaming across the border from Canada. It’s hard to pin down.
What you should actually do
Knowing the Thursday weather is only half the battle. Here is how you actually handle the current January mess:
- Check the Wet-Bulb Temperature: If you’re in the Northern Plains or the Upper Midwest, don't just look at the "high." Look at the wind chill. With the current Arctic intrusions, a 20-degree day can feel like -5 real quick.
- Hydrate your plants: Especially in the Southeast. The drought conditions are legit. Even though it's winter, the lack of precipitation means your evergreens might actually be thirsty.
- Watch the "Trough": If you see weather maps showing a deep blue dip over the Great Lakes, start prepping for flight delays. Even "slight" snow risks can mess up a hub like O'Hare or Detroit.
The bottom line is that Thursday is a transition day in a transition month. We are seeing a mix of record-breaking dry spells in the South and "episodic" cold intrusions in the North. It’s not a "locked-in" winter, but it’s definitely not spring yet.
Keep an eye on the local radar specifically for "lake effect" bands if you’re near the water. Those can pop up in minutes, even when the broader forecast says "partly cloudy."
To get ahead of the shifting patterns, check your local NWS (National Weather Service) office's "Area Forecast Discussion" tonight. These are the raw notes written by actual meteorologists—not just the automated app icons—and they’ll give you the real "why" behind the rain or shine. If you're planning travel, cross-reference the FAA's National Airspace System (NAS) status for potential weather-related ground delays at major hubs.