The NFL playoffs have a funny way of making experts look like they’ve never watched a down of football in their lives. We just watched the Denver Broncos survive a 33-30 absolute heart-stopper against the Buffalo Bills, only to lose Bo Nix to a broken ankle. It’s brutal. That’s the postseason for you. One minute you're celebrating a trip to the AFC Championship, the next you're wondering if your backup can handle the biggest stage in sports.
Now we pivot to Sunday. The board looks a little lopsided on paper, but if you’ve been paying attention to how these teams actually match up, things get weird. This weeks nfl picks aren't just about picking the better seed. It’s about realizing that "momentum" is often just a fancy word for a team that hasn't hit their inevitable wall yet.
Texans at Patriots: The Stroud vs. Maye Chess Match
New England is laying 3 points at home. Honestly, that feels like a trap. The Patriots finished 14-3, but they’ve been living on the edge for a month. Drake Maye has been incredible, especially when he’s looking for Stefon Diggs. They have this rhythm where Maye just knows where Diggs is going to be before he even breaks his route. It’s a completion rate of over 80% when they connect. That’s video game stuff.
But here is the problem for the Pats: Christian Gonzalez. He’s in concussion protocol. If he can't go, or if he’s even a step slow, C.J. Stroud is going to pick that secondary apart. Stroud doesn't care about the Foxborough chill. He just shredded Pittsburgh for 30 points. The Texans have this weird streak going where they’ve won 16 straight games when they score at least 20. If they hit that number Sunday, the Patriots are in massive trouble.
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I’m looking at the Texans +3.5. Mike Vrabel has that defense playing possessed, and even though they’re missing Nico Collins, they find ways to move the chains. It’s going to be ugly, cold, and probably decided by a late field goal.
Why Everyone is Underestimating the Bears
The nightcap is the one everyone is talking about. Rams at Bears. Chicago is a 2-seed and they are home underdogs. Let that sink in. The oddsmakers are basically saying the Rams, who had to travel to Carolina and survive a shootout, are 3.5 to 4 points better than a rested Bears team at Soldier Field.
I get it. Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay in the playoffs is a scary combo. But the Rams' defense has been leaky. Since Week 12, they’ve slid down to 17th in EPA per play. They miss Quentin Lake in that secondary. You can see the cracks. Meanwhile, the Bears are 8-4 in one-score games this year. They know how to hang around. Caleb Williams has been much more careful with the ball lately, and if the Chicago wind starts howling, the Rams' explosive passing game might get neutralized.
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I’m leaning toward the Bears straight up. It’s sort of disrespectful to have the 2-seed as a dog at home.
Breaking Down the Numbers for the Sunday Slate
If you're looking for the smart plays, you've got to look at the totals too.
- Texans vs. Patriots (O/U 40.5): This is a low number, but for a reason. Both defenses are top-10 in DVOA. New England wants to run the ball and kill the clock. Houston wants to keep Maye off the field. I’m leaning Under.
- Rams vs. Bears (O/U 48.5): This feels high. Everyone expects a shootout because of the names under center, but playoff football in Chicago in January usually ends up being a trench war.
Actionable Betting Insights for Sunday’s Games
Don't just chase the "hot hand." Look at the injury reports specifically for the secondary players. The Patriots potentially being without Gonzalez changes their entire defensive identity. They become a "bend but don't break" unit instead of a lockdown one.
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- Watch the weather in Chicago. If the wind gusts are over 15 mph, the Rams' deep ball to Puka Nacua becomes a lot less reliable.
- The Texans Moneyline (+145) is the value play of the weekend. If you think they can keep it within a field goal, you might as well play them to win.
- Tease the Bears and the Under. Moving Chicago to +9.5 and the total to 54.5 feels like a very safe way to navigate the Sunday night chaos.
The divisional round is usually the best weekend of the year for a reason. The pretenders are gone, and only the battle-hardened remain. Expect the unexpected, because these matchups are way closer than the spreads suggest.
Go place your bets before the lines move anymore. Most of the sharp money is already starting to flow toward the dogs.
Next Steps for Your NFL Weekend
- Check the Final Status: Make sure to verify Christian Gonzalez's status 90 minutes before kickoff, as his absence flips the Patriots' defensive scheme.
- Monitor the Winds: Use a localized weather app for Chicago's lakefront; anything over 20 mph significantly nerfs the Rams' vertical passing game.
- Live Betting Strategy: If the Patriots score early, look to jump on the Texans' live spread, as New England tends to play more conservatively once they have a lead, allowing for back-door covers.