The divisional round is always weird. You’ve got the heavy hitters coming off a bye week, rested and supposedly ready to steamroll, and then you have the battle-hardened teams that just survived a chaotic Wild Card weekend. This weekend's NFL football games feel different, though. We aren't looking at the usual suspects—there’s no Patrick Mahomes or Lamar Jackson in the mix this time. Instead, we have Bo Nix leading a top-seeded Denver team and Caleb Williams trying to bring playoff glory back to Soldier Field. It’s a changing of the guard, and honestly, the betting lines are reflecting a lot of uncertainty.
If you’re looking for the "safe" bets, you might be disappointed. The gap between a No. 1 seed and a No. 6 seed has rarely felt this thin. We’re seeing spreads as low as 1.5 points in some of these matchups. That’s basically a toss-up.
The Saturday Slate: Mile High Stakes and a West Coast Grudge Match
Saturday starts in Denver. The Buffalo Bills are headed to Empower Field at Mile High to take on the Denver Broncos. Kickoff is at 4:30 p.m. ET on CBS. This is a fascinating matchup because Denver snagged the No. 1 seed with a 14-3 record, but the Bills are actually favored by 1.5 points on some books. How does a No. 6 seed go on the road and become the favorite against the conference's best record?
Well, Buffalo just scraped by the Jaguars in a 27-24 nail-biter. Josh Allen looked like he was playing hero ball again, which is both the Bills' greatest strength and their scariest weakness. Denver, meanwhile, has been incredibly efficient under Bo Nix. They don't turn the ball over. They have a secondary that makes life miserable for aggressive quarterbacks. The big news for Denver is linebacker Dre Greenlaw. He’s been out since Week 16 with a hamstring issue but practiced fully on Thursday. Having him back to spy on Allen's legs is going to be massive.
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Then we move to the nightcap. At 8 p.m. ET on FOX, the San Francisco 49ers travel to Seattle to face the Seahawks. This is the third time these rivals have met this season. They split the regular-season series, with Seattle winning the most recent one in Week 18 to clinch the top seed.
Seattle is rested. San Francisco is hurting. The 49ers are officially without superstar linebacker Fred Warner, who is out with an ankle injury. That’s a gaping hole in the middle of a defense that already ranks 25th in DVOA according to recent metrics. Plus, George Kittle is gone for the year. The Niners are basically the "Walking Dead" of the NFL right now, yet they keep winning. Sam Darnold has been steady for Seattle, and while he’s dealing with a slight oblique tweak, he’s expected to be full-go. This game usually comes down to who makes the last mistake at Lumen Field.
Sunday’s Battles: The New England Revival and Chicago’s First Home Divisional Game in 15 Years
Sunday starts in Foxborough. At 3 p.m. ET on ABC/ESPN, the Houston Texans take on the New England Patriots. The Patriots finished 15-3 and just dismantled the Chargers 16-3 in the Wild Card round. Their defense is essentially a brick wall. However, the Texans are the team nobody wants to play. They just beat the brakes off the Steelers 30-6.
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Houston’s defense is sneaky good. They’ve allowed fewer than 20 points in six games against playoff-caliber teams this season. But the injury report for this game is a mess. Houston has stars like Nico Collins (concussion) and Denico Autry (knee) missing practice time. If Collins can’t go, C.J. Stroud loses his primary deep threat against a New England secondary that specializes in taking away the short stuff. It’s going to be a chess match between DeMeco Ryans and Jerod Mayo.
Finally, we have the Los Angeles Rams at the Chicago Bears at 6:30 p.m. ET on NBC. Soldier Field is going to be loud. It’s been 15 years since the Bears hosted a divisional-round game. Caleb Williams has been sensational lately, specifically in the fourth quarter. In their win over the Packers, he threw for 184 yards in the final frame alone.
The Rams are the 4.5-point favorites here. Matthew Stafford is still a monster in the postseason, and the Rams’ offense is healthy. But there’s a feeling in Chicago that this is a "destiny" year. The Bears' defense has been gettable, sure, but playing in the January cold at Soldier Field is a different beast for a dome team like the Rams. If the Bears can keep it close until the fourth, you've got to like the kid's chances to pull off another miracle.
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What to Watch For: The "Hidden" Factors
When you're looking at this weekend's NFL football games, don't just look at the quarterbacks. Look at the trenches and the weather.
- Denver Altitude: It’s real. The Bills had a physical game in Florida last week and now have to play in thin air against a rested Broncos team.
- The Warner Absence: San Francisco without Fred Warner is like a ship without a rudder. Watch how Seattle attacks the middle of the field with Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
- The Soldier Field Surface: It’s notoriously one of the worst-maintained fields in the league. For a Rams team that relies on timing and speed, a slippery, muddy track in Chicago could be the great equalizer.
Experts are split on these. USA Today has the Bears winning an upset 28-24. Meanwhile, the models are favoring Denver to protect their home turf despite the Bills being the betting favorite.
Actionable Insights for the Weekend
If you’re planning your weekend around these games, here is how you should approach it:
- Monitor the Saturday Weather: Denver and Seattle are looking at standard winter conditions, but any sudden wind shifts in Seattle can turn that passing game into a ground-and-pound affair quickly.
- Watch the Texans' Final Injury Report: If Nico Collins is ruled out on Friday, New England becomes a much safer pick to cover a larger spread.
- Hedge on the 49ers: They are the "zombie" team. No matter how many injuries they have, Kyle Shanahan finds a way to keep them competitive. Don't be surprised if that game stays within 3 points.
- Check the Betting Lines Early: We are seeing significant movement on the Bills-Broncos game. If it hits Broncos +2.5, that’s a lot of value for a No. 1 seed at home.
The divisional round is where the pretenders get exposed. This weekend, we’ll find out if the "new" quarterbacks like Bo Nix and Caleb Williams are ready for the bright lights, or if the old guard—Stafford and Allen—still runs the show.
Make sure your streaming apps are updated. Saturday's games are split between CBS/Paramount+ and FOX, while Sunday's are on ESPN/ABC and NBC/Peacock. If you're using a trial for any of these, now is the time to activate it.